PAHWM: $2/5/10 JTs

Changster

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I really think you should just post the whole hand all at once in the beginning and let people comment. It takes too many days to see what happened. It’s like that Netflix series that always says to be continued...

Not that my opinion matters.
 

Rhodeman77

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An Ace was about the only card I would consider giving up on with. Villain is described as being sticky and that card didn’t change the board really. If he thought he could be good on the turn enough to call I can see him calling again.

I’d love to say move all-in but I think I go with the conservative route here and check.
 

FDLmold

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I really think you should just post the whole hand all at once in the beginning and let people comment. It takes too many days to see what happened. It’s like that Netflix series that always says to be continued...

Not that my opinion matters.
I disagree. I saw this when it first posted, thought about it, and now I'm coming back to it days later to catch up. It's like a 2 for 1 special. Then again, I'm a patient man, so the instant-gratification-wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am of binge watching the hand is not necessary for me.

Does a small bet here look stronger than a big bet?
 

DrStrange

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The best reason not to post the whole hand then have a discussion is that people's advice / opinions often are tainted by knowing what works best in this particular circumstance.

Not only does this deprive Hero of a robust discussion of his/her options in the hand but it also deprives the other participants of a chance to play along size Hero and see how well they might have performed. In many threads we see heated discussion of what course of action to take and on the range of cards held by villain. This wouldn't happen if the outcome was laid out in the original post.

There is a place for a bad beat / brag / war story kind of post. Just not here as a strategy thread.

DrStrange

PS Pairing the ace kills the bluff for me. I know there is some chance villain had a pair that isn't top pair but I give up on trying to fold him out.
 

Hornet

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Villian counts his stack and it sounds like he's quietly doing some math outloud, he cuts out the bet and places it back in his stack, counts it out again and after a minute calls.
This just doesn’t sound to me like someone who has an ace. Could easily be a pair and a flush draw. Perhaps a weak king. In any event, given the size of the pot, I think you have a good enough chance of the three barrel working to make the play. And I think you can get away with betting $500-$600 rather than shoving.
 

Marius L

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That’s gotta be the worst river. Sticky king can call a river barrel fairly comfortably, same with ace bad kicker.

Bluffing with Jack high is probably the right play, but I don’t feel good about it and our hand has bad blockers.

Depending on my villain read, I usually give up and just check it over.
Agree, really bad card. Sticky Ax will never fold now, and even a king might still call you down. Sucks to have to give up. I probably shove because checking down with J high seems so weak, but knowing I'm getting called and will beat myself up over it afterwards, lol.
 

Frogzilla

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The best reason not to post the whole hand then have a discussion is that people's advice / opinions often are tainted by knowing what works best in this particular circumstance.
r/poker usually omits the results entirely...they don’t matter. Our Villain has some Aces, some missed flush draws, some badly played missed gutshots (at a low frequency), some sticky pockets, bottom sets, and a lot of Kings, and trapped AA/KK (also at a low frequency). Learning which of the combos villain happens to have this time is useless


To changsters point though, we could discuss preflop flop, turn, and river at same time if someone wants to post that type of thread
 

Payback

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After posting I realized I probably should have posted this from Villian point of view as then it would force the conversation to ranges here and what could Hero credibility hold in this spot.

Obviously AA (1 combo), KK (3 combos), and AK (6 combos) and 77 (3 combos) make up the bulk of Heros range from Villian perspective, but if we only bet those villain can play perfectly against hero in position. Therefore we need some bluffs in our range and at the time this hand plus QTdd and QJdd would be ideal candidates. Throw in a random combo of missed Broadway spades (KTss or QJss) and this gives Hero 4 bluffs. Or about 3:1 value to bluff ratio. I'm too lazy right now to plug this into a GTO solver, but I think this range is pretty well constructed.
 

Frogzilla

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After posting I realized I probably should have posted this from Villian point of view as then it would force the conversation to ranges here and what could Hero credibility hold in this spot.

Obviously AA (1 combo), KK (3 combos), and AK (6 combos) and 77 (3 combos) make up the bulk of Heros range from Villian perspective, but if we only bet those villain can play perfectly against hero in position. Therefore we need some bluffs in our range and at the time this hand plus QTdd and QJdd would be ideal candidates. Throw in a random combo of missed Broadway spades (KTss or QJss) and this gives Hero 4 bluffs. Or about 3:1 value to bluff ratio. I'm too lazy right now to plug this into a GTO solver, but I think this range is pretty well constructed.
This board with the paired Ace has some enhanced removal effects though. When you don’t have an Ace, villain is twice as likely to have one.

I’m curious to see how solvers adjust for that phenomenon. It might play the river quite passively OOP and have a larger checking range than you would expect despite the range/nut advantage. but this is just a guess.
 

Moxie Mike

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Hero views villian as slightly sticky, will play any 2, and is overly aggressive with the nuts and huge draws. Passive otherwise.
Ranging an opponent that plays many pots and plays them passively on early streets is tough. Based on your description, I would put him on some type of flush draw/pair with FD type of hand. Maybe the nut FD? That's probably the assumption I'd base my river bet on.

Turn HU ($435): :4s:
Hero bets $225, Villian counts his stack and it sounds like he's quietly doing some math outloud, he cuts out the bet and places it back in his stack, counts it out again and after a minute calls.
Is he Hollywooding?

Assuming not, we know Villain's tendency to play big hands fast. Since that hasn't been the pattern in this hand, I think we we can put him on a speculative hand with reasonably reliability.

River HU ($885): :ah:
Doh!
Effective stacks are $800.

Hero ???
There's too much money in the pot to c/f here. I think firing a bet out is needed. After all, you'd feel sick if he checked back and tabled queen high to drag the pot.

So it's really a question of bet sizing. My feeling is that if he has an ace, he'll probably call any amount. If all he has is a busted flush draw, he won't put a single chip in. But he could make a crying call with a king or smaller pair if you bet too little.

So I think a modest 'value bet' is appropriate. A bet of $275 sounds about right. This minimizes your exposure if he looks you up (or raises), while also looking legit enough to fold smaller pairs. If he raises, you can release without tabling your hand - which also has value.
 
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Trihonda

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So how did this turn out?
I’m with you. I Appreciate the need to not focus on results while examining decisions in hand. But every story is better with an ending. In fact, if I knew a strat thread was not going to eventually provide end results, I would probably skip participation.

for the record, I was suspicious that the OP was the villain all along. But sounds like I was wrong. Lol.
 

Payback

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So how did this turn out?
I’m with you. I Appreciate the need to not focus on results while examining decisions in hand. But every story is better with an ending. In fact, if I knew a strat thread was not going to eventually provide end results, I would probably skip participation.

for the record, I was suspicious that the OP was the villain all along. But sounds like I was wrong. Lol.

Hey guys sorry this one took a bit to get results up, but my paternity leave ended and needless to say the pile of work that is getting dumped on me is a bit insane. I considered more than once of being like fuck it and being like put me back on unpaid leave..., especially after getting 45 kids put into my room at the end of the day. Welcome back... Good times. /end rant

Back to the part you've been waiting for. I was actually Hero in this hand, sorry @Trihonda .

Hero: $1,200
Villian: $4,200
Most other stacks are around 1k-1.5k.

Hero looks down at :jd::td:
Villian posts straddle on the button, SB calls, BB folds, Hero didn't come to fold 40% a royal and raises $45, uber calling station calls, Villian on button calls, SB calls.

Flop 4 handed ($185): :ad::kd::7s:
Check, Hero bets $125, uber caller finds one of the rare folds of the day, Villian calls, SB folds.

Turn HU ($435): :4s:
Hero bets $225, Villian counts his stack and it sounds like he's quietly doing some math outloud, he cuts out the bet and places it back in his stack, counts it out again and after a minute calls.

River HU ($885): :ah:
Hero thinks for a second and decides that with AA, AK, and KK that he'd probsbly jam vs. going with a smaller bet here as it looks more bluffy so I need to do the same with a hand like this. Plus I didn't want it going check/check and losing to a draw. I'd seen twice where villain called insane turn bets and hit miracle rivers then over bet jammed. Obviously here all draws miss so didn't want to open the door to lose this pot to his bluffs either.

Just as I'm ready to act my dinner shows up and villian goes deep into the tank and begins talking to himself. "This is what I get for calling the turn" and I figure at this point my goose is cooked.

My mom, who was sitting next to me, got scared And said, "You're movin' with your auntie and uncle in Bel-Air." I whistled for a cab and when it came near the license plate said FRESH and it had dice in the mirror. If anything I could say that this cab was rare, but I thought, "Nah, forget it. Yo home to Bel-Air!"

I pulled up to the house about 7 or 8 And I yelled to the cabby yo holmes smell ya later. Looked at my kingdom I was finally there To sit on my throne as the prince of Bel-Air.



Sorry had to have some life fun today,

He thinks some more, asks the dealer for a count, counts out the chips and says "Damn why'd I call the turn." Then tosses the cards in the muck.

Me:

Bel-air.jpg

I learned later he called PF with K7hh and flopped bottom two so the river counterfeits his hand.
 
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