PAHWM: 10NL ACR Blitz, TT in BB in 3! pot (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

First decision point of the hand. LJ RFI 2.8 BB and SB 3! to 11BB.
Hero is in BB with TT. Hero cant see folding - are we calling or cold 4!?

 

[boltonguy]

Wow Snowie is folding here 55% of the time ... and calling 0%. Surprised.

 

[Eriks]

Wow Snowie is folding here 55% of the time ... and calling 0%. Surprised.

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Surprising for sure. One of those spots where neither option is very attractive. I would probably call here but looks like it’s time to re-evaluate. I almost never play 100bbs though

 

[Legend5555]

Against LJ open and SB 3!, I'm folding the majority of the time here.

 

[boltonguy]

So Hero isnt folding TT here with 100BB, but doenst feel that it's strong enough to raise.
Both LJ's opening and SB's raising ranges have some overlap so let's call, hope LJ doesnt raise, and hope that they have each other's outs.
This is definitely a gambling spot.
Hero calls & LJ calls. Flop is looking pretty good for us as given our flat we have all the sets and I dont think anyone else does.
I think they both have a lot of Ax and suited broadways, with SB having the premium PPs (AA & KK), LJ having QQ-.
SB X. Action on Hero?

 

[joker80]

I would have 4 bet to 25 bb to try to get it heads up; and fold to a jam pre. On the flop would bet 17 BB when checked to

 

[MJpoker]

Call me a wimp, but I'm probably folding pre unless I have info on the opponents or the current game that change my mind.

 

[Legend5555]

What is your flat calling range here pre? Often with your line, it's just so obviously something like 99+, AQs, AKo. It's why I hate flat calling here pre. You can't balance your range here that easily.

But anyway... Probably have to bet. Doesn't need to be too large given it's multiway and you are blocking the thick value hands. SB can easily have bigger overpairs and range checking this board. UTG can also have hit a set or have just total whiffs with broadway hands. We have equity against the sets and overpairs. The only issue is that you betting here basically looks like you have exactly what you have. You can't have nuts though, and you can't really have all the sets. Just a crappy spot.

 

[Stackme]

Good chance I am folding pre as well, especially with a UTG raiser behind. Great flop for this specific holding, and I agree with smaller bet 1/4 or 1/3 pot for value and protection against broadway hands and possible flush draws. Hoping no raise from UTG since probably have to call some of them with the straight equity. I think it is also possible SB could still have the premium pairs and just shifted into check-call mode after this flop which clearly favors the calling hands; UTG and Hero going to have all of the sets and all of the Ts and Js, and SB also has lots of AK, AQ and Ax suited in their range here as well.

 

[boltonguy]

Hero does indeed bet 1/2 pot - not letting this X through. LJ folds and SB calls.

Snowie also likes the bet here but chooses a solver-ish smaller size of 1/4 pot which has an EV = 12.

River is pretty much a blank and SB X. Hero?

 

[Legend5555]

So... With SB calling, he is having weighted toward overpairs and nut FDs. I see us only really having 2 options, jamming as a sort of merge, or checking. Maybe we get SB to fold an overpair or NFD? Maybe not though since we can't really have a 6 and all we are really repping for thick value is 99. I think if I have QQ+ I call a jam here as you are only repping NFD, 99-JJ.

I think we just take our equity and check.

 

[boltonguy]

So in real time I thought about a few things:
- I only have just over a pot sized bet left, so if I'm going to bet here or on the river the only size with any FE is a jam.
- If V has AX (AK, AQ, AJs - A3s) or a FD there are lots of rivers I wont like seeing. If I X now, give up initiative, and an overcard to the T comes (A, K, J) or a heart comes, or the board pairs and V bets I'm going to be in a tough spot.

So Hero Jams and V folds.

Snowie seems to be OK with the jam as X, jam & 1/4 pot all have the same EV.