PAHWM: 100NL Online (1 Viewer)

[Rhodeman77]

Ok so we have corrected the flop, apologies here

I’m not so sure SB has the range advantage on the KKJ flop. SB has the only KK combo, but there is only one, and I think my open/call range has plenty of KJ (including off suit) at some frequency. We also have way more Jx so this board may actually favor us. Most turns bring a 3rd overcard , so I decided to throw in a cbet to try and take it down on the flop


.50/$1 NLHE

Preflop
UTG ($60) folds
Hero ($600) opens to $3
HJ ($400) folds
CO ($200) calls
Passive BU ($150) calls.
TAG SB ($260) raises to $17
BB ($250) folds
Hero calls.
CU folds.
BU folds.

Flop (2 players, $41, $243 effective)

SB checks
Hero bets $25
SB calls

Turn ($91, $218 effective)

SB checks
Hero?

So what happened? The anticipation is killing me!

 

[Frogzilla]

Strong arguments made for checking back turn. And checking back turn is probably the best play. But checking back turn induces exactly 0 folds on the turn, and makes the incoming river bet pretty difficult to play. In the moment, I was in no mood to bluff catching the river. Fantastic river incoming


.50/$1 NLHE

Preflop
UTG ($60) folds
Hero ($600) opens to $3
HJ ($400) folds
CO ($200) calls
Passive BU ($150) calls.
TAG SB ($260) raises to $17
BB ($250) folds
Hero calls.
CU folds.
BU folds.

Flop (2 players, $41, $243 effective)

SB checks
Hero bets $25
SB calls

Turn ($91, $218 effective)

SB checks
Hero bets $75
SB calls

River ($241, $143 effective)

Sb checks
Hero?

 

[Rhodeman77]

My exact thought when that hit: with a side of

 

[Legend5555]

Well you only have 2 options. And both suck.

 

[Frogzilla]

Well you only have 2 options. And both suck.

Agreed, we’re in a messy spot (and avoidable) but theres 240bb in the middle and action is on us

 

[ninedeuce]

This spot really depends on now wide the range you think villain is continuing with, and how wide the range villain thinks you are continuing with.

Given effective stack and current pot, villain needs to fold to your shove ~40% of the time or more for it to be +EV. This could perhaps be simplified to: "Do I think villain will bluff catch against me with an A in this spot?"

If the answer is yes, just take the L.

If not, go for it, and hope that the pot is much bigger the next time you take this line against villain and you actually have the goods then!

 

[Legend5555]

Agreed, we’re in a messy spot (and avoidable) but theres 240bb in the middle and action is on us

Well, by jamming you are very polarized. You get 99 and TT to fold. From villain's perspective, what are you playing for value here and what are your bluffs? If you jam you are laying opponent 2.7 to 1. Those are pretty decent odds to bluff catch.

What is the likelihood that opponent has A high here? Would opponent check/call twice OOP with AQ or AT? Seems unlikely. So that as a bluff catcher seems most likely out. But opponent can have AA, AK, KK, QQ, JJ, AJ, KQs, maybe KJs, 99, TT. It seems like there are more hands that could catch you here than are folding. Unless you think you can get AA, QQ, and AJ to fold, seems like you should just give up.

 

[Legend5555]

We ever going to hear the end of this hand?

 

[Frogzilla]

We ever going to hear the end of this hand?

We certainly have some Kx in this spot that will go for value in this spot, so poker theory dictates we have some bluffs. On the river, bluff with low showdown hands that unblock the opponents fold range and block calling range.

We are playing the board, criteria #1 met.
His fold range includes counterfeited 88-TT, QT, T9, and perhaps AT, AQ, Axcc. Maybe even QQ if he’s pretty tight. none of those have a 2, criteria #2 met. 22 also unblocks calling range but that is the nature of KKJJ3 boards.

Nearly mandatory bluff spot, we jam, SB goes into the time bank tank and is not happy in the chat, ends up makes the correct call w/ AA. If the timing was any indication, Ax was going in the muck.

NH @Rhodeman77

 

[WedgeRock]

My exact thought when that hit: with a side of

So villain didn't have a K or J...

@Frogzilla, were you guys zoom chatting? Were you able to pick up that villain didn't like this card?

 

[Rhodeman77]

So villain didn't have a K or J...

@Frogzilla, were you guys zoom chatting? Were you able to pick up that villain didn't like this card?

No zoom chat.

So here is my thought process on the hand:

I had been watching @Frogzilla build his stack up against a local player of mine that had just joined and was melting down. Neither player had a hand worth a damn most of the time but Frog kept winning. So my range for Frog was very wide to say the least.

on a KKJ flop I am either way ahead or way behind. If I’m ahead like I figured most of the time he will fold to any aggression And I am throwing money away when I am behind. So I decided to let him have some road to hang himself if I was ahead and limit my loss if I’m behind by check calling.

I also figured if he was bluffing he would only try for 2 streets at the most and the river would go check check most of the time.

When the river came out pairing the Jack a lot of the hands I was beating now became boats. Hands like J10, Q10, AJ, J9 etc.

The only Kx hands I was worried he could have are KQ and K10, maybe K9 suited, but as aggressive as he was he might have even raised KQ as a 4 bet bluff since it has good removal

But then I also started thinking he has to worry I could have been trapping with AK the whole time, so why not take the showdown value if he has Jacks full and risk another $140~ on the river.

In the end I felt my hand was too strong given previous hands played and the price I was getting to call. If it had been much earlier in the session without seeing the other hands I may have folded it.

I was impressed he was able to pull the trigger on the 3 street bluff attempt. I would have given up on the river in his shoes.

well played @Frogzilla.

 

[WedgeRock]

Strategy and analysis from HERO and VILLAIN in the same hand. That might be a PCF first.

 

[Coyote]

I guess the morale of the story is that, against the specific VILLAIN, you should fold small pairs in any position, at the latest on the flop