PAHWM - $1/$3 NL @ Resorts World - JJ in HJ (1 Viewer)

Legend5555

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Hero is sitting on about $1k which is the biggest stack at the table. Been running very well.

New Spanish/Portuguese/South American guy, early 30s, sits with $400. He is the villain and this will be his 2nd hand at the table. Has that air of knowing what he's doing, but can't really count on that read at all.

VILLAIN raises UTG+1 to $14. Folds to Hero in the HJ with :js::jh: and 3 bets to $45. Table folds. VILLAIN calls.

Pot: 90
Eff: 355
Flop: :9c::3h::4h:

VILLAIN checks.

HERO?
 

Jimulacrum

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Bet $60 or thereabouts.

This is one of those spots where you win a small pot or lose (or escape losing) a big one.

JJ is probably good the majority of the time on this flop. When it is, though, the value will be thin if it exists at all. Maybe TT or a big ace with a flush draw.

If this guy pushes back in any meaningful way, I'd expect him to have better than JJ at least most of the time, even if his range includes some hands you beat.

Wrong way #1,411 to play jacks.
 

kirchhausen

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60 was exactly what I was going to say, as we can fairly confidently fire off a bet here. Villains range (if he is good)is probably 88-JJ, AK, AQss maybe QQ. I think AA,KK, and sometimes QQ 4-bet pre.

So you are losing to 99 (3 combos), QQ (6 combos), beating 88, and TT (6 combos each), tied with JJ, slightly behind AKhh and AQhh, significantly ahead of all other combos of AK.
 
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raynmanas

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Bet $60 or thereabouts.

This is one of those spots where you win a small pot or lose (or escape losing) a big one.

JJ is probably good the majority of the time on this flop. When it is, though, the value will be thin if it exists at all. Maybe TT or a big ace with a flush draw.

If this guy pushes back in any meaningful way, I'd expect him to have better than JJ at least most of the time, even if his range includes some hands you beat.

Wrong way #1,411 to play jacks.

agreed. not a whole lot to discuss on the flop, i think we are pretty much always betting here and 2/3 pot seems about right.
 
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I think a bet is correct, I think sizing should be closer to 50% though. Personally, I'd only use 50% or check on this board IP in a 3BP. 66% probably doesn't change too much though so not sure its even worth discussing.

The main problems I see with betting 66% two fold:
1) SPR on the turn and river become very awkward (~1.5SPR on the turn), if you bet half pot on the turn, you have a 0.44SPR on the river.
2) You're super far ahead of 2 overs as long as it's not heart heart and you want them to call a bet here. 2 overs +hh is continuing either way for 50% or 66%, but non flush draws may not continue for 66%

I ran this thru a solver (LJ vs CO 3bp since I'm using GTOWizard and its 6max only), and it's actually checking jacks here about 70% of the time.
 

Legend5555

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7 handed

Hero is sitting on about $1k which is the biggest stack at the table. Been running very well.

New Spanish/Portuguese/South American guy, early 30s, sits with $400. He is the villain and this will be his 2nd hand at the table. Has that air of knowing what he's doing, but can't really count on that read at all.

VILLAIN raises UTG+1 to $14. Folds to Hero in the HJ with :js::jh: and 3 bets to $45. Table folds. VILLAIN calls.

Pot: 90
Eff: 355
Flop: :9c::3h::4h:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets $30.
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: 150
Eff: 325
Turn: :9c::3h::4h::9h:

VILLAIN checks.

Hero?
 

Legend5555

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My rationale on flop is that villain shouldn't have any AA or KK. And he only sometimes has QQ and AKs. So unless he has 99, AhQh, AhKh, MAYBE KhQh and Ah5h, I can pretty safely bet. He can't have JhXh combos since I'm blocking. So I want to target 66-88, TT, and AhX type hands, so betting smaller seemed good to me. Plus I need some protection.

I'm not entirely surprised the solver likes checking a lot given that I basically never hit this board. But this is live play against generally weak competition. Pretty sure Bart Hanson would not advocate checking behind here.
 
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Yeah, I think betting is good here in practice, just thought it was interesting solver checks and thought I'd mention it.

check turn, can't see many worse hands calling and any better hands folding
 

kirchhausen

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I dunno about solvers for 1/3 live, I feel like they are geared towards online players and not your low buyin live players

That said, I’m fine with the $30, I would have bet more, but I understand the logic.

I like a bigger bet on turn, $100 perhaps
 

Schmendr1ck

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Why? I think no way V has a 9 (unless he has quads. I think V must likely has underpair, or even other combo of JJ.

If v has QhQx oh well but that’s at top of his range I think.
There are four combos of 89s and T9s that are certainly in his range, plus the heart draws that got there. The part of villain's range that we are ahead of got a lot smaller, and the scare card gives him an opportunity to bluff CR with hands like AhX and put us in a bad spot.

I'm in pot control mode now. I'm too strong to fold, but I think value betting here against an unknown is usually torching money.
 

AnteAndy

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Why? I think no way V has a 9 (unless he has quads. I think V must likely has underpair, or even other combo of JJ.

If v has QhQx oh well but that’s at top of his range I think.

Don't see V having QQ period. I can see any heart-suited Broadway or connector hands calling a 3bet pre and call a flop bet. Even A9s, J9hx, or any other suits T9 & 98 hands.

I see a decent bit of V's hands either being ahead or way behind. This line action from the V would indicate a flush draw hitting the turn, top pair on flop calling the bet, and any worse hands would probably fold on average.

H checking turn here could get worse hands to try stabbing the river if it doesn't improve their hand. If V made trips or a flush by the turn, a check is good for pot control, losing the minimum if V makes a decent enough river bet for H to call.
 
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Why? I think no way V has a 9 (unless he has quads. I think V must likely has underpair, or even other combo of JJ.

If v has QhQx oh well but that’s at top of his range I think.
A large part of V continuing range should be flush draws OTF, which are now made flushes. Another large part of his range should be middling pocket pairs which may turn into bluffs (I'd say 66-88 should be bluffed depending on river runout) which puts jacks in a sick spot. And it's possible that V has 9x, although shouldn't be too likely considering UTG+1 rfi and 3bet OOP
 

kirchhausen

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There are four combos of 89s and T9s that are certainly in his range, plus the heart draws that got there. The part of villain's range that we are ahead of got a lot smaller, and the scare card gives him an opportunity to bluff CR with hands like AhX and put us in a bad spot.

I'm in pot control mode now. I'm too strong to fold, but I think value betting here against an unknown is usually torching money.
I'd be very surprised if 89s and T9s were called preflop for $45.
 

Legend5555

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I'd be very surprised if 89s and T9s were called preflop for $45.
I usually don't comment before the next action, but keep in mind we were only $400 effective to start the hand, UTG+1 and UTG+2, and Villain is OOP. I would be surprised if there are any 9s in his range that aren't quads. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.
 

Schmendr1ck

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I'd be very surprised if 89s and T9s were called preflop for $45.
How much 1/3NL have you played lately? ;)

I do agree that these hands are a small part of his range (and probably shouldn't be there at all if he's competent), but at the lowest stakes I don't discount them entirely.

And if he is competent, a bet here gives him the chance to check-raise huge with a fairly balanced range of hands that we're beating (AhX, middle pairs) and hands we're crushed by (flushes, QQ, the occasional flopped set, 9x).

Maybe I'm being a nit, but I don't have enough info to want to face that bet, and I don't have a strong enough hand to build a pot when I can get a free river.
 

Schmendr1ck

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I usually don't comment before the next action, but keep in mind we were only $400 effective to start the hand, UTG+1 and UTG+2, and Villain is OOP. I would be surprised if there are any 9s in his range that aren't quads. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.
I agree that it's not likely, and I agree that V calling the 3! with 9x is a mistake. But I also stand by my statement that at the lowest stakes, you will see it happen more often than it should - especially when V is the one who opened the pot. Many 1/2 and 1/3 players are too sticky preflop with way too wide a range of hands.

Based on this post, though, I also have a sinking feeling that I'm wrong now... :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
 
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Unless I'm mistaken, if you open 65s/76s/87s/98s specifically (not T9s/J9s/other SCs), aren't you're supposed to be calling 100% of 3bets even OOP? Not saying top open at full frequency, just when you do open, you should call
 

Legend5555

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Unless I'm mistaken, if you open 65s/76s/87s/98s specifically (not T9s/J9s/other SCs), aren't you're supposed to be calling 100% of 3bets even OOP? Not saying top open at full frequency, just when you do open, you should call
I honestly don't know. At this stack size OOP, I probably fold. And keep in mind in low stakes live play, we aren't really 133bb effective. More like 80-90 given open sizes. 200+BB deep? Probably calling if heads up.
 

AnteAndy

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I usually don't comment before the next action, but keep in mind we were only $400 effective to start the hand, UTG+1 and UTG+2, and Villain is OOP. I would be surprised if there are any 9s in his range that aren't quads. Possible? Sure. Likely? I don't think so.
The three bet amount pre-flop was just a smidge over 3x. If the pre-flop 3 Bet was around $55 or $60 I can see them folding more suited connectors more often.
 

Jimulacrum

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I don't believe for a second that live lolfish aren't calling 3-bets with weak hands with 9s in them. Is Villain a lolfish? Maybe, maybe not. We can't just discard the possibility that he "has an air of knowing what he's doing" because he's a frequent flyer from sucker games elsewhere in the casino.

Check back. There aren't a lot of reasonable bare :ah: hands for you to milk, so what worse hands are really calling if you bet? What better hands are folding? Betting here seems to only serve the purpose of giving Villain a layup check-raise when he has a big hand, or taking down the pot from him when we have him killed anyway.

Plan to check back if he checks the river, fold to a bet on a threatening river, and generally call if the river is clean and his bet isn't stupid big. Checking back here may make his river betting range wider so you can catch some bluffs, in addition to sometimes paying him off when he has a boat or flush.

The bit of value we lose by letting inferior hands have a free card is worth it IMO. This hand isn't that strong anymore; pot control and bluff-catching are the name of the game now.
 

Legend5555

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7 handed

Hero is sitting on about $1k which is the biggest stack at the table. Been running very well.

New Spanish/Portuguese/South American guy, early 30s, sits with $400. He is the villain and this will be his 2nd hand at the table. Has that air of knowing what he's doing, but can't really count on that read at all.

VILLAIN raises UTG+1 to $14. Folds to Hero in the HJ with :js::jh: and 3 bets to $45. Table folds. VILLAIN calls.

Pot: 90
Eff: 355
Flop: :9c::3h::4h:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets $30.
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: 150
Eff: 325
Turn: :9c::3h::4h::9h:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets $80.
VILLAIN thinks for about 20-30 seconds and raises to $200. Leaving only $125 back.

HERO?

My rationale for betting was that I have the :jh: which eliminates some of the suited broadway hearts. And I just don't think he has many 9s as discussed previously. I still wanted to try and get value from 77, 88. TT, and whatever AhKx or AhQx he might have. Right after I did it, I kinda hated it. Not because I don't think my hand is good a lot, but because I can bet less than this and accomplish the same thing. And could also just have checked back obviously. I just though his thick value range was basically just KhQh or AhQh with some AhKh (I think it 4 bets pre some % of the time). I also don't think he has 33 or 44 very often, if ever. That would mean he both raised it in early position AND called the 3 bet. That seems unlikely. Plus my general feeling of the guy is that he wasn't terrible. I know I said not to really consider that too much, but a European/South American in Vegas around the WSOP leads me to think he can't be a total fish. So I gave more weight to his preflop ranges being standard.
 

Jimulacrum

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Betting 80–90 would be my second choice, behind checking back.

And there's the layup check-raise from Villain. Sizing is suspicious; it commits him to the pot if he's not stone bluffing, but without leveraging the full size of his stack. Is he doing that because he wants to lure you in with the smaller bet? Is he leaving himself options in case his flush draw whiffs after the semi-bluff? Is he even thinking about any of this? Tune in for our next episode of When Lolfish Strike.

Overall, I'd say you have to fold here. You'll be wrong sometimes—mainly when he's semi-bluffing with the ace and 2 overs, and you're a favorite but sweating a lot of outs. But when this check-call / check-raise line is a value move by Villain (and it reeks of this), you're not only behind but down to 2 outs at best. Calling the $120 has you essentially committing to the additional $125 (he's laying you 4.6:1 if he bets it on the end), so think about it that way.

If he flips over the other two jacks after you fold, though, I might cry a little.
 

boltonguy

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I would take V's line with a hand with bare Ah. On turn I'm X back; you're either way ahead of a hand like AhQx or your crushed by the flush.
Not much info on the guy so you probably should be folding - hard to know only 2 hands in if he's capable of making this play as a bluff with bare Ah.
I would really want to call with an overpair and the Jh making it less likely that he has the flush.
However against an unknown at these stakes, they probably always have it so folding is a prudent move.
 

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