NLHE Strat: Hand reading on turn

jbutler

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Late night $2/5 at Borgata, I've played about an hour and a half with relevant villain. He has been down to $100ish after making dumb calls - presumably drawing - and folding on turns or rivers, but now has run it back up with some rungood and luckboxing.

Representative hand: he raised pre, got called in three spots, led for a pot-sized bet on a 378ss board, got called in one spot, shipped turn for over pot, got called and his aces were good.

This hand, he has $1100ish and I cover. He opens to $40 UTG. To this point most raises had been $15-$30, very occasionally $35. I'm UTG+1 and call with red JJ, and we pick up two more callers. Embarrassingly, I couldn't remember his preflop raise size on his aces hand, but he was not doing a lot of preflop raising so I gave his UTG open a little credit and flatted.

Flop ($167): :as::7s::5d:

Now UTG leads for $25.

How do you range UTG here and what is your play?
 

MoscowRadio

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I think the biggest problem is the two players behind you. To me, Villain's post-flop bet reeks of weakness, but it could also be an attempt to get everyone to come along or to induce a raise from someone. I think knowing what his raise with AA would help. Leading $25 into a pit of around $160 just seems weak to me. At this point, I'm having a hard time ranging Villain because of the odd play, but I feel that he may be more than likely trying to get money in the pot while not scaring others away.

I think I changed my mind like four times while writing this.

In my mind, I want to get aggressive here. I say raise to $130 and see where you land.
 

guinness

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I might put him on a small pair or something like KQ suited. The $25 is highly suspect and I don't care about the other two players holdings yet. I would raise to $85, then apply $180 on the turn to shrivel whatever weak ace comes along after the flop. If he sticks around, assuming no flush hits I'd probably have to dig deep for a river $275 bet unless I have more information to go on that reads "get out now" but usually I don't can't read those signs.
 

PAZ

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I'm not a cash player but could he have a weak Ace or 6s 8s? Flush draw and an open-ender gives hims out. His higher than average raise could represent top pair or a small set and if he gets called to the river he still has outs.

Raise $75 and hope for just a call.
 

mipevi

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Villain seems like a very straightforward player, calling with draws and betting big with the goods. Based on his large preflop raise and small flop bet, I'd guess he has a pair like 99-KK and is just afraid of the ace. KQss could also fit, but I'd weigh more towards the pairs. You're about even money vs. that range so ideally I'd try to get him off his hand. The two players behind and their stacks matter, but I think overrepping here to take down the pot seems fine. Make it $150 to go.
 

grandgnu

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Fold. While I don't believe Villian has an Ace (I agree with Mipevi on the 99-KK range) I would be concerned with the two players left to act. If we were heads-up against this villain with position I think you could take it away, but with two players behind us I'd lean towards folding.
 

DrStrange

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I'd range "villain" as polarized. Basically top set or a big pair. Not a big ace or two broadway or suited connector. Villain notes imply this villain plays draws passively, but maybe not if he raised preflop? No solid clues about how he plays semi-bluffs.

However, the original raiser is not the player who threatens Hero, it is the other two guys. Hero is going to have RIO issues if he tries to blow them off the hand through aggression - - - winning smaller pots and losing bigger ones.

Hero was set mining (for the most part) and should keep to the sidelines here. I could go for a fancy play if this were heads up but multiway with an underpair and out of position vs. the people who might hold Ax sounds ugly. "Not me, says the chicken"

Of course we could read that the other two villains aren't going to be a problem by the fact the original post says nothing about them, but that would be cheating -=- DrStrange
 

jbutler

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I agree with the mp's range above for UTG. His large UTG raise pre had me putting him on TT+ and AK. His near-min-bet lead led me to take AK and AA out of his range, believing he would never want to give three players such ridiculous odds on a wettish board.

Basically no chance he has KQs or some ran some connectors imo.

Fold. While I don't believe Villian has an Ace (I agree with Mipevi on the 99-KK range) I would be concerned with the two players left to act. If we were heads-up against this villain with position I think you could take it away, but with two players behind us I'd lean towards folding.
However, the original raiser is not the player who threatens Hero, it is the other two guys. Hero is going to have RIO issues if he tries to blow them off the hand through aggression - - - winning smaller pots and losing bigger ones.

Hero was set mining (for the most part) and should keep to the sidelines here. I could go for a fancy play if this were heads up but multiway with an underpair and out of position vs. the people who might hold Ax sounds ugly. "Not me, says the chicken"
If our plan for the hand versus villain includes at least double barreling do we really think that one of the field callers will call down with aces they flatted with pre? I would imagine that we might get a flop call from AT, AJ, or AQ, but that those hands are likely folding the turn even if they hang on for one more street. It's really tough for them to come along after that especially if UTG calls the flop raise imo.
 

DrStrange

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We don't know anything about the other villains. Maybe they are stupid / sticky. Maybe they are short stacked enough to be pot committed with top pair. Maybe they are really good and have read this hand just like Hero did and play to take hero out with aggression (keeping in mind what we know about Hero isn't common knowledge). Hero's range is filled with one pair hand and draws of various quality, it is not as though he three bet and is representing AA or AK. And of course, maybe they flopped lucky and aren't going anywhere.

Hero knows more than us. But what little I know makes me want to fold.

DrStrange
 

fish72s

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I concur.

Fold. While I don't believe Villian has an Ace (I agree with Mipevi on the 99-KK range) I would be concerned with the two players left to act. If we were heads-up against this villain with position I think you could take it away, but with two players behind us I'd lean towards folding.
 

jbutler

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We don't know anything about the other villains. Maybe they are stupid / sticky. Maybe they are short stacked enough to be pot committed with top pair. Maybe they are really good and have read this hand just like Hero did and play to take hero out with aggression (keeping in mind what we know about Hero isn't common knowledge). Hero's range is filled with one pair hand and draws of various quality, it is not as though he three bet and is representing AA or AK. And of course, maybe they flopped lucky and aren't going anywhere.

Hero knows more than us. But what little I know makes me want to fold.
this is definitely a fair point. i didn't give a lot of information because until i find out differently, i assume random players at these stakes have no real ability to hand read and resteal in spots like this. also, as you deduced in your post above, they ended up being irrelevant ;)

so after this:

jbutler said:
Flop ($167): As7s5d

Now UTG leads for $25.


i raised to $125. field players fold very quickly and UTG thinks for maybe ten seconds, squirms a bit, and calls.

turn ($417): 8c

villain checks. how does his flop call change his range? our play?
 

grandgnu

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i raised to $125. field players fold very quickly and UTG thinks for maybe ten seconds, squirms a bit, and calls.

turn ($417): 8c

villain checks. how does his flop call change his range? our play?

Well, you said previously:

Late night $2/5 at Borgata, I've played about an hour and a half with relevant villain. He has been down to $100ish after making dumb calls - presumably drawing - and folding on turns or rivers, but now has run it back up with some rungood and luckboxing.
So I expect you can take this pot down on the turn with continued pressure. I'd bet $250
 

jbutler

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So I expect you can take this pot down on the turn with continued pressure. I'd bet $250
those were hands where he'd shown no aggression, though. what do we think about his preflop raise and his lead into three players?

since the ace on board is a spade, i still think we can exclude suited hands from his range as i just can't see this guy who hasn't shown much aggression preflop would all of a sudden open quite large UTG with 8s9s or KsQs and then lead tiny into the field and then fail to 3-bet when i raise.
 

grandgnu

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those were hands where he'd shown no aggression, though. what do we think about his preflop raise and his lead into three players?

since the ace on board is a spade, i still think we can exclude suited hands from his range as i just can't see this guy who hasn't shown much aggression preflop would all of a sudden open quite large UTG with 8s9s or KsQs and then lead tiny into the field and then fail to 3-bet when i raise.
In previous hands where he's had "the goods" he's generally bet pot or overbet though. Here he's significantly underbet on the flop. So it's either the monster we fear (AA) and he's trying to get cute with it, or he's got something like KK or QQ and just had to see one more card and see if he could get it checked down.

I lead for $250, fold to any raise and don't plan to bet the river if villain calls the turn.
 

detroitdad

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Late night $2/5 at Borgata, I've played about an hour and a half with relevant villain. He has been down to $100ish after making dumb calls - presumably drawing - and folding on turns or rivers, but now has run it back up with some rungood and luckboxing.

Representative hand: he raised pre, got called in three spots, led for a pot-sized bet on a 378ss board, got called in one spot, shipped turn for over pot, got called and his aces were good.

This hand, he has $1100ish and I cover. He opens to $40 UTG. To this point most raises had been $15-$30, very occasionally $35. I'm UTG+1 and call with red JJ, and we pick up two more callers. Embarrassingly, I couldn't remember his preflop raise size on his aces hand, but he was not doing a lot of preflop raising so I gave his UTG open a little credit and flatted.

Flop ($167): As7s5d

Now UTG leads for $25.

How do you range UTG here and what is your play?
Before I read the other responses and see how wrong I am. The two guys to act behind me concern me a little. Not enough at this point. It depends on how they react to the flop play. His 25 bet seems weak to me. I'm raising it another 100. This should clear the field of play, or at least let me know where I'm at.

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

this is definitely a fair point. i didn't give a lot of information because until i find out differently, i assume random players at these stakes have no real ability to hand read and resteal in spots like this. also, as you deduced in your post above, they ended up being irrelevant ;)

so after this:



i raised to $125. field players fold very quickly and UTG thinks for maybe ten seconds, squirms a bit, and calls.

turn ($417): 8c

villain checks. how does his flop call change his range? our play?

You specifically say "squirms". I got a think he isn't excited about his Q's and longer. I usually play for "big pots". I would probably make it 275-325 and see what happens.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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On the flop I'm folding with two players behind me; you have to think at least one of them has a big ace. However, once you are heads up, I would imagine the villain has a bigger pocket pair than jacks, unless he is giving off a false tell. Double barreling should work, but some stubborn people just refuse to fold pocket kings even with an ace on the flop. I would try one more time, making it like $375. If you get called again wave the white flag, and if you get raised obviously fold.
 

Ben

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I like the $125 on the flop - I was thinking exactly that. After the squirmcall I'm pretty confident he doesn't have a monster - he might have a better hand, worse hand, or draw, but based on the villain info I'm pretty sure he's folding just about all of them to a $350 bomb on the turn. Do not bet less - I don't think it will be nearly as effective. If he calls that, shut it down.
 

jbutler

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he might have a better hand, worse hand, or draw, but based on the villain info I'm pretty sure he's folding just about all of them to a $350 bomb on the turn. Do not bet less - I don't think it will be nearly as effective.
i bet less :(

turn ($417): 8c

villain checks, i bet $270. villain again squirm-called.

river ($957): Kd

villain checks quickly. i think the consensus is to give up here, so i won't drag it out any further. i gave up and checked and he turned over AcKc which shocked me. i mucked and he said, "i thought for sure you had a set."

i have a hard time deciding when it's best to triple barrel and when it's best to shut it down. i have the strong sense that this guy was holding on after he called the turn. the consensus here was to bomb bigger on the turn and i wonder if that would have changed things.

i have to think him showing up with AK here after his ridiculous flop lead is just a huge anomaly. or maybe he wanted to see a non-spade hit before putting a lot of money in and then feel into a check-call shell after i raised the flop? hard to say.
 

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I was going to say $110 on the flop and $250 on the turn, and then shut it down when he called both thinking he had a weaker Ace. I'd be surprised to see AK as well but not to see aces up. Either way, he's not folding to any river bet.

JJ is very difficult to play against a player like this. It helps a lot if you can flop a set :)
 

Gear

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If Villain really has Hero on a set, I guess I have to agree with him just checking down the river despite having top two pair, but what set is he putting Hero on? He's really reading Hero for calling a large-ish UTG pre-flop raise from UTG+1 with 55 or 77 ? Really?
 

jbutler

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If Villain really has Hero on a set, I guess I have to agree with him just checking down the river despite having top two pair, but what set is he putting Hero on? He's really reading Hero for calling a large-ish UTG pre-flop raise from UTG+1 with 55 or 77 ? Really?
i would have called with those hands. as strange says above, i was essentially set-mining with the jacks and would likely have been done with the hand but for UTG's bizarre sizing of his flop lead.

preflop versus this type of villain with this raise size and these stacks, JJ and 55 are basically the same hand. we were $1100+ effective, so it makes mathematical sense to set-mine.
 

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If Villain really has Hero on a set, I guess I have to agree with him just checking down the river despite having top two pair, but what set is he putting Hero on? He's really reading Hero for calling a large-ish UTG pre-flop raise from UTG+1 with 55 or 77 ? Really?
I'm pretty sure about 87.2% of the poker-playing population makes this call. The other 12.8% are easily identifiable by the coffee cup in hand. ;)
 

Gear

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OK, fair enough. I guess I play too tight :)

Another question on Villain's play. If he is really reading Hero for a set, why is he calling the flop raise and the turn bet?
 

jbutler

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Another question on Villain's play. If he is really reading Hero for a set, why is he calling the flop raise and the turn bet?
this is what's known as the donkey paradox.

and why it's generally a bad idea to try to run big bluffs on bad players. sometimes it works and i thought i had found the right conditions, but alas, i left the hand several hundred bucks lighter...
 

jbutler

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I think I shut down on all rivers unless lol live read or some such nonsense. You fire a 9 roman?
 

Ben

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this is what's known as the donkey paradox.

and why it's generally a bad idea to try to run big bluffs on bad players. sometimes it works and i thought i had found the right conditions, but alas, i left the hand several hundred bucks lighter...
Seems like I've had a lot of these types of spots come up in my more recent (admittedly quite limited) casino experience. Basically spots where I've shown aggression and don't have it, and the villain clearly doesn't have much but I also can't really rep much. On three different occasions where I was picked off by a weak hand after making a value-sized bluff trying to rep top pair or whatever for thinnish value, the villains said something to the effect of "if you bet $XXX (more) I would have folded." Conversely, I remember a couple where I just bombed it and it worked. Moral of the story: I'm pretty sure bet-sizing doesn't mean anything at all to the vast majority of casino players, other than how much money they are going to have to put into the pot.
 

Bradcorn

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Ben - agree with you regarding bet sizing in live games. Especially low limits.

Regardless of the pot there are numbers that represent a "big bet"
 

onerand

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Jack,

I would fire a 9 with your line to move him off an Ace. This guy would be worried about straight, even though you understand it is a long shot. But so is villain having AK, wow.

I thought weak ace or flush draw, possibly King-high. So with your line I would have fired this river and lost even more trying to get a king to fold.

But I side with Chippy that I wad my shorts up and let it go on the flop with 2 guys behind, as tempting as it is.

Odd way to play AK; you were doomed all along.
 

jbutler

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But I side with Chippy that I wad my shorts up and let it go on the flop with 2 guys behind, as tempting as it is.
yeah i do know that i am capable of running too high variance lines in low-stakes games where people just don't fold, which can obv be a leak. i thought this was one hand where it was correct to run the play, but maybe not...
 
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