My spider sense was wrong, and it saved me..... (1 Viewer)

[longflop]

I was playing in a tournament at @Highli99's place a couple weeks ago. NLHE tourney with two rebuys per person within the first four levels. We were in lever 3, I had not rebought yet.

I had been playing just short of tight to this point. I had showed after a preflop raise that all folded to earlier. Mainly so I could say "four tits", but also to show to the guys I hadn't played with before that I'm not just buying blinds.

Blinds were 100/200 and I am sitting on 6,600ish chips, Player 1 (@Highli99) is on my right and Player 2 is on my left. We are all in middle position. I am the shortest stack of the 3.

Folds to Player 1, who raises it to 675. I look down at and call, thinking that, based on how the table had played until then, that raise was enough to get us playing heads up. Player 2 takes one second and says "ok, I'm going all in". Folds all the way around to Player 1 who instantly goes all in. Now I know that it is way too soft to fold here, and I never do, but I had a crazy sense that one of them had aces. I can't explain it, I was convinced. I'm not clairvoyant, but I have some ability to read people. I thought for a bit, then tossed them in.

Player 1 turned over , Player 2 turned over . I was wrong. Flop comes turn was and river was for Player 2 to make his flush and Player 1 to rebuy.

I was wrong, but it saved me this hand. Didn't matter much as I busted after the rebuy period ended. I realize I played this wrong and this should have been jam city for me. Question is, do you guys always ignore feelings in situations when the play is obvious?

 

[ceramicmike]

You might of pushed AJ out but AK was sticking around till the end. I would of shoved the house.

 

[Saoliver]

I was playing in a tournament at @Highli99's place a couple weeks ago. NLHE tourney with two rebuys per person within the first four levels. We were in lever 3, I had not rebought yet.

I had been playing just short of tight to this point. I had showed after a preflop raise that all folded to earlier. Mainly so I could say "four tits", but also to show to the guys I hadn't played with before that I'm not just buying blinds.

Blinds were 100/200 and I am sitting on 6,600ish chips, Player 1 (@Highli99) is on my right and Player 2 is on my left. We are all in middle position. I am the shortest stack of the 3.

Folds to Player 1, who raises it to 675. I look down at and call, thinking that, based on how the table had played until then, that raise was enough to get us playing heads up. Player 2 takes one second and says "ok, I'm going all in". Folds all the way around to Player 1 who instantly goes all in. Now I know that it is way too soft to fold here, and I never do, but I had a crazy sense that one of them had aces. I can't explain it, I was convinced. I'm not clairvoyant, but I have some ability to read people. I thought for a bit, then tossed them in.

Player 1 turned over , Player 2 turned over . I was wrong. Flop comes turn was and river was for Player 2 to make his flush and Player 1 to rebuy.

I was wrong, but it saved me this hand. Didn't matter much as I busted after the rebuy period ended. I realize I played this wrong and this should have been jam city for me. Question is, do you guys always ignore feelings in situations when the play is obvious?

Knowing that I could rebuy, I would have raised big instead of called, hoping to get heads-up. But, AKs was going nowhere.

 

[Anthony Martino]

It's rare I'm laying down KK preflop. That being said, one thing I've learned is to listen to that spidey-sense. Oftentimes when I ignore it, I pay for it. And the reason it kicks in is recall, you've been in these spots before, the bets, the mannerisms, they tell a story that your brain is remembering from the past.

An example is when I was in a tournament awhile back and I raised preflop with TT and got called by a player in the blinds. Flop was Q-rag-rag and I c-bet at a reasonable size and they called. The turn was an Ace and they donked 10K into me (I think I had 25K in my stack).

Their bet made little sense, and if I had taken the time to process it, I would've realized if my opponent held Ax on the flop he either would've folded or it would've played differently if he had AQ. And if he had Qx why would he donk into me when the Ace hits, given I had raised pre?

All-in-all, his bet just didn't make sense, but I didn't listen to my spidey-senses and laid it down and he showed K9 s00ted like a boss, lol. If I had the heart to listen I would've stacked up nicely.

 

[kmccormick100]

I’m never ever flatting Kings in that spot. And also never ever folding KK with 30bb within the rebuy period. Passing up way too much positive expected value long term, you’ve got ~72% equity against those two hands, that’s HUGE. Results oriented runout is pointless.

 

[Rhodeman77]

With rebuy options people play much looser early on. I would have 3 bet for sure and called the all-in as played.

And if you are wrong you have the option to rebuy!

 

[Chris Manzoni]

As Doug Polk would say, there’s a lot of deep analysis I could get into here, but to save time let me just say - don’t fold pocket kings pre-flop.

 

[DrStrange]

Math is your friend. Ignore equity calculations and suffer the consequences.

Ya, ya, ya, I am sure all of us have memories of times we made stupid hero calls or shocking laydowns that worked well. We remember stuff like that. We forget the times our "little voices" sell us on wrong decisions that prove costly.

In the current thread, perhaps Hero could read the villain(s) well enough to know someone thinks they have a great hand. AKs is a top 2% hand. So it was true villain was quite strong, but he wasn't holding aces. Hero made a huge mistake preflop. But what he will remember in the coming months is how smart he was due to the outcome. And the next time his 6th sense starts to tingle the same sort of thing is likely to happen.

There is a time and place for intuition. Times where the action, villains and situation leads to ambiguous decision points. Times where the math is so complex or cloudy that Hero's table experience can tip the scales one way or the other. But even here, people tend to have selective memories - forget mistakes and cherish successes.

I wonder how people come to believe they have reliable poker intuitions without also being solid winning players. Not that I ever correct this line of thinking. I cheer amazing decisions that work out well and avoid commenting on errors in judgement. I am content to sit at the table and enjoy the extra equity that might come from any player who sees himself/herself as the next Amazing Kreskin.

Your mileage may vary -=- DrStrange

 

[WedgeRock]

I feel better about 2 shoves in front of me than just one. Unlikely both have AA, and if one has it, so be it. Rebuy!

 

[Chris Manzoni]

You need to understand that everything you do at the poker table, conveys information. You can't be like all loosey goosey having a sandwich, you know on your phone - WHOO HOO BABY! I LOVE IT!

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Raise big and one of two things happens: 1) AJ (rightly) folds and you play a big pot with a hand that crushes AK, or 2) AJ shoves, AK reshoves, and you play a bigger pot with a hand that crushes both AK and AJ.

Flatting here was a mistake.

 

[timinater]

There is a time and place for intuition. Times where the action, villains and situation leads to ambiguous decision points. Times where the math is so complex or cloudy that Hero's table experience can tip the scales one way or the other.

This ^

This was not the situation for a feel play. Presented with an opportunity to turn my 30bb into 90+ with KK, yeah I'm all about that.

Honest question: How were you feeling that day? Anything bugging you, feeling less confident, playing the tournament on a tight budget, had somewhere else you'd rather be etc.? To make this fold against even the tightest of opponents with two rebuys available for you, I mean, you might as well have not bothered even showing up.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I find it a little amusing that you think your mistake saved you.

First of all, it screwed you out of getting your chips in the middle as a big equity favorite. That's the theoretical angle. Folding KK in that spot was a huge mistake; you're only seeing it through rose-colored glasses because of how the hand played out.

Second, from the results-oriented point of view, the board happened to run out four hearts to give AJ the win. How tragic. If only there were something you could have done to get AJ out of the hand so you could double up through AK.

Shove next time. It would be a bit of an oversized raise, but you really don't have any room to maneuver with 30BB holding KK in a raised pot. It usually takes a really strange series of actions for KK to be foldable, and that's rarely if ever going to happen with such short stacks. Once you come to terms with the fact that you are playing this hand for stacks, your planning should improve.

You seem to think that your misguided instinct saved your ass by getting you out of a pot you would've lost. But the reality is that it's quite possible AJ only won the pot because of your misguided instinct.

 

[FDLmold]

Laughing at the last part of Dr. Strange's comments.

 

[Highli99]

i disagree with the consensus and think you should continue to fold KK preflop to my raises.

 

[Frogzilla]

The trap worked! But err, you folded? If you choose to go a slow play, which is decent counter to player 2 squeeze play, you gotta call it off!

 

[longflop]

i disagree with the consensus and think you should continue to fold KK preflop to my raises.

Duely noted.

I appreciated all the responses, even those reinforcing my idiotic choice. Let me start by saying that I 100% played this just about as wrong as I could. If I played this same hand again, I raise in that situation 101 times out of 100. I know that after I laid them down, nothing afterwards matters. Sure it saved me from busting right there, but it also cost me the chance to potentially triple up, as a significant favorite, at the point that I folded.

What I can't explain is why I was totally convinced that one of these two had the one hand that I would be behind to. I am never that nitish. I had to two rebuys in my pocket, ready to roll. I don't know why, in this case, I failed to do what I always do.

The more I think about it, maybe @timinater is on to something. This was a couple of weeks ago, at the end of 5 months of being up at 5am every day, every weekend to coach hockey practice. I thought I was ready to play, buy maybe it was something in my subconscious that wasn't all the way there. Interesting.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I once laid down top two against a particular opponent I had a good read on. He showed me bottom set on an AJ3 board

I also once busted @Ben With Q2 s00ted against his KK so what do I know?

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Whenever a thread like this comes up, I always mention that I have folded KK preflop twice in over ten years of playing NLHE. Both times were in cash play against a very specific opponent type (OMC) who was 4-betting me, and both times I was shown AA after I folded.

It's not absolutely wrong to fold kings preflop, but it is an extremely situational play that should almost never happen.

 

[Gobbs]

Rule Number 1: Never slow play KK pre-flop. Ever.
Rule Number 2: In a tournament, never fold KK pre-flop with less than 30 BBs unless you are in a crazy bubble/payout/satellite situation.
Rule Number 3: Rules Number 1 and 2 do not apply if you are playing against me.

 

[Saoliver]

While (kind of) on the subject, I have been told that there is only one time when it is good to fold AA preflop:

Tournament
On the bubble
Multiple players all-in before your action

Your thoughts?

 

[WedgeRock]

While (kind of) on the subject, I have been told that there is only one time when it is good to fold AA preflop:

Tournament
On the bubble
Multiple players all-in before your action

Your thoughts?

First hand of the ME. ICM is crazy out of whack.

 

[DrStrange]

I would be interested in seeing the math behind ICM supporting folding aces preflop. That seems like it could lead to the conclusion that you should skip the first hours of any deep stacked event. On its face, the proposition appears dubious but perhaps the math is as @WedgeRock proposes.

As for @Saoliver , it is only a specific type of bubble where folding aces is proper. A "double or nothing" or "all winners get the same prize" type prize structure means Hero should fold everything as long as she/he has a comfortable chip edge over the bubble players. Zero risk gets the prize <almost> for sure means folding everything.

In a contest with a steep prize evolution, getting a 4x stack is worthy of some risk in most cases. If Hero's stack is so feeble that a min-cash is the best most likely case, then perhaps folding the aces is still best. However when Hero stands a chance to win or at least go deep, going for a monster stack with the best hand means risking elimination to gain a major advantage.

 

[WedgeRock]

On its face, the proposition appears dubious but perhaps the math is as @WedgeRock proposes.

Rough math. At the start of last year's WSOP, John Cynn had 30,000 chips, just like the 7,873 other players (of course, he probably didn't know the number of entries, what with re-entries allowed and 4 Day 1's) and he had the same shot as all other entries of winning (at least in the abstract, again because of re-entries and multiple Day 1s).

Lets say on the first hand, it was two black Ks v Cynn's two red As. Kings shove before action is to John. John is a 4:1 favorite, but a win means that instead of being 1 in 7,784 (0.000012700025%) to win, he will be 1 in 7,783 (0.0012701638%). On $8.8m, that increase is worth 14.2¢. Playing that scenario 5 times, he gains 56.8¢ (four wins) and loses $1,117.60 (Cynn's one 7884th of the $8.8m top prize).

Obviously the full prize pool makes things alot more complex, but that's my 6am math. I would venture to say the risk to reward is much worse with multiple AIPFs in front of you when you look down at aces.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Yeah your math is 6am for sure. On the first hand any one person has a 1 in 7,784 chance to win.
But on the second had his chances do not go to 1 in 7,783. He has twice the stack size of most everyone in the tournament now.
So my 7am math says his odds now are more on the order of 1 in 3,891 and as you said the full prize pool even improves his payout chances.

 

[Frogzilla]

Odds to win is exactly related to chip count...no ICM there. At the beginning of the tournament though there is very little ICM pressure.

That seems like it could lead to the conclusion that you should skip the first hours of any deep stacked event.

You get an ICM edge by late registering. But you get to play less poker (rec), and less time to exercise your big edge when the stacks are deep (pro). The equity benefit from late reg is also fairly marginal:
For sake of example: 10 person tournament with 50/30/20 payout, $100 entry via online ICM calculator
Stack value at entry, beginning: $100
Stack value of entering with 1 bust already happened: $102
Stack value of entering with 2 bust already happened: $104

 

[Steve Birrer]

The problem with these types of calculations is that I am not sure they have correctly figured in all the factors. Maybe they have I just not sure. Lets use the above example of a 10 player entry. Yes you are now entering with two less players. But the average stack size is now 20% higher than yours.

 

[Frogzilla]

Yes of course. Otherwise it would have been $111 (1000 spread out over 9 even players)

 

[Gobbs]

It’s never, ever, ever right to fold Aces pre-flop on the first hand of any tournament unless it’s a satellite tournament AND there are two or more all-ins ahead of you AND everybody except the first player out advances to the main tournament. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that scenario is a tad bit rare.