Local casino bonus game question. Need your help! (1 Viewer)

[SpaceMonkey420]

I need your assistance with a question. In this context, players at my local caz bet on the flops and receive a bonus if the flop results in a straight, which consists of three consecutive cards. It’s a $5 bet.

There's an ongoing debate about whether it's easier to achieve the “bonus” at the Omaha table compared to the Hold Em table. The main point of contention is that the cards are not drawn from the same part of the deck. Some argue it's easier to get the bonus from the top of the deck, while others believe it makes no difference since it's a 52-card deck that isn't reshuffled. Does that make sense? Can anyone here help us settle this? Thank you!

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Its a normal shuffled deck, you're just dealing a flop? Why are 3 cards in Omaha different than 3 cards in Hold'Em?

Why does the place in the deck matter?

 

[DrStrange]

Settle? Proving something with logic, common sense and math to superstitious poker players?? You must be joking.

There would be some slight edge to be had after someone sees their hand as some known cards are "blockers" to three card straights and some make three card straights more common.

Random is random. It doesn't matter what game you are playing or where the previously unknown board cards came from. if you can see your hand, there could be a minor advantage one way or the other. -=- DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Unknown cards don't matter in probabilistic calculations, and whether you draw from the top, middle, or bottom of the deck changes nothing. The odds for this bet for Omaha should be identical to the odds for Hold'em.

 

[drdr]

Not sure I understand fully. My interpretation was that it would be easier at Omaha as the extra hole cards help achieve a straight. But, yeah, of course where the cards come out of the deck makes no difference. Random is random.

 

[links_slayer]

are these the same guys who say "the last 7 spins have been red, next one's gotta be black"?

it's obviously the same probability regardless of hold em vs. omaha.

 

[SpaceMonkey420]

Great thoughts. I’m wondering if we can somehow chart this to prove it I’ll post the game shortly, I think they hosted in casinos nationwide it’s possibly from IGT

 

[SpaceMonkey420]

So it’s the same odds regardless, even though it seems like the straight would be easier to hit with the first three cards than the last three cards. That is the argument.

 

[Natskule]

Great thoughts. I’m wondering if we can somehow chart this to prove it I’ll post the game shortly, I think they hosted in casinos nationwide it’s possibly from IGT

Don't need a chart or anything. Probability of 3 cards in a row being a straight is around 3.2%, doesn't matter where in the deck.

 

[Colquhoun]

C'mon....the chance of hitting a straight on the flop is 50/50.

It either hits, or it doesn't.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

So it’s the same odds regardless, even though it seems like the straight would be easier to hit with the first three cards than the last three cards. That is the argument.

What argument? What does that mean, why would the first three be easier than the last three?

 

[SpaceMonkey420]

Don't need a chart or anything. Probability of 3 cards in a row being a straight is around 3.2%, doesn't matter where in the deck.

I know the odds of hitting three of the same cards are about 50 to 1. If the first two are 3.2% in a row what are the odds of hitting all three of the straight? I’m in a Big Poker room right now with a lot of people debating this as we speak. It’s comical.

 

[DrStrange]

I don't need to do the math to be confident that the house edge in this game is in favor of the house. <<<Gasp>>>

Bet the losses on this will end up being higher than the rake / time fee.

 

[links_slayer]

There are 12 possibilities for making a straight: A-2-3 thru Q-K-A

There are 4 possible suits for each of the cards: 4 x 4 x 4 = 64 possibilities

Which gives us 12 x 64 = 768 possible “straight flops”

There are (52 x 51 x 50) / (3 x 2 x 1) = 22,100 total flops from a 52 card deck

768 / 22,100 = 3.475% chance of this hitting

(i'm pretty dumb so feel free to double-check this)

 

[drdr]

So it’s the same odds regardless, even though it seems like the straight would be easier to hit with the first three cards than the last three cards. That is the argument.

Oh. This reads as a very different question from your first post.

 

[SpaceMonkey420]

well pit boss here is saying 400+ to 1 for the flop to all the same number ie a flop of 777. Can that be correct?

 

[SpaceMonkey420]

There are 12 possibilities for making a straight: A-2-3 thru Q-K-A

There are 4 possible suits for each of the cards: 4 x 4 x 4 = 64 possibilities

Which gives us 12 x 64 = 768 possible “straight flops”

There are (52 x 51 x 50) / (3 x 2 x 1) = 22,100 total flops from a 52 card deck

768 / 22,100 = 3.475% chance of this hitting

(i'm pretty dumb so feel free to double-check this)

Thank you!

 

[DrStrange]

The chance of three cards of the same rank (any) is 425-1 3/51 x 2/50.

The chance of a specific flop of the same rank (eg all aces) is 5,525-1 4/52 x 3/17 x 2/50

 

[Phoe9x]

If you have to place the bet before being dealt then the odds are the same. There’s 52 unseen cards.

If you can place the bet after looking at your hole cards (unlikely) then it changes the odds ever so slightly (50 vs 48 unseen cards)