Live Hold'em Hand From Last Night (2 Viewers)

[AWenger]

Just to put things in perspective (for me too). Before the turn, pot is now $55 ($15+$20+$20), and MP's stack is now $225 or so, and you have him covered.

I would generally assume if MP had a set or two pair, and is a 'maniac' like you say, he would re-raise the flop to build a bigger pot -- he would want to play for stacks and get more money in with $225 behind. So the way I think, the most likely hands that have you super crushed are the Ace or King high flush draws, but there are only 16 combinations of those hands left (since, if he has the As or Ks, 4 of the 12 remaining spades are out), and is he really playing K3 suited?

I say keep firing, you've got a huge draw, you're 30% against a set (which I think might be unlikely), 32% against top 2 pair, 43% against a 9 high flush draw (pair+FD). You can put max pressure on hands like QK, QJ, and others to fold.

Bet $40.

 

[AWenger]

Also, if he has a worse flush draw (without pairing the 9), you're a 86% favorite.

 

[boltonguy]

I think it is possible that Vs turn X could mean nothing more than deference to Hero who took the initiative with the flop raise

 

[MrCatPants]

This hand is a NLHE hand later in the night where we were already pretty deep. 8 handed at this point.

SB: solid player with shades of a calling station - $200
BB: LAG - $500
UTG: Member here, so I'm not disclosing my thoughts - $100
MP: Maniac from some of my other threads, but more of a reasonable LAG tonight thus far - $250
HJ: Member here, so I'm not disclosing my thoughts - $250
CO: Hero -$450
BTN: TAG, winningest player at the game over time - $250

UTG Folds
MP Raises to $2
HJ Folds
Hero looks down at and RAISES to $7
Folds back to MP who CALLS

Pot is $15

Flop comes:

Villian leads for $8
Hero RAISES to $20
Villain pauses for a few seconds and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.
Hero bets $30
Villain calls

River is Turn is

Villain checks
Action on hero

Do you fire a bluff given the action, and if so how much, or give up?

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

not betting the turn or river is terrible against almost anyone and it doesn’t matter if you got looked up by Qx or whatever. You really don’t have that many bluffs here after 3betting pre and unless you’re very out of line frequently people will know that yet You have so many obvious value hands. If I get looked up here with less than somethjbg like AKss I’d start to consider what tells I might be giving off.

If you had somehow had 9xss then sure you could check back either or both streets but betting the bottom of your range isn’t good strictly for balance. It’s good because you almost never win otherwise. People have to be over calling by a significant margin to not want to bluff here. It’s not thr same as when you’re considering calling with a bluff catcher on the River - in those spots an opponent even even slightly under bluffing could make all bluff catchers a fold.

That is unless the new read is:
Maniac LAG
…Who only 4bets big pairs.
And is very tight with his turn calls
But is a loose passive fish on rivers.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

As for sizing you want to go bigger, probably close to pot.

You do also want to go for smaller sizing with hands like AK or AJ no spades so if you really wanted to be balanced you could throw in some small size bluffs with JT or T8 no spade (because now your small bets have a much higher chance of getting flush draws that are beating you to fold because there are more of them) , and probably mix in AA to protect your range / because you would block so many of their potential calls but realistically you don’t have to do any of that, and at best the benefit is tiny.

Full pot is completely reasonable. Story checks out. He won’t level himself into thinking you could be value betting worse if he has something like A8ss.

 

[boltonguy]

V looks sticky and strong. V called your 3! and your flop raise and your turn bet. Again I don’t think you have FE here. Sure you can’t win with a X here but your goal is not to win every pot. X and accept defeat. I triple barreled like this into a set (and lost) at a home game a month ago. Not again.

 

[Poker Zombie]

Bluffing here 20% of the time. Just enough to keep the table from suspecting, not enough to incur significant losses when caught.

 

[boltonguy]

What we don’t know here is : what is hero’s table image? Is the perception that Hero is 3 betting light? What types of hands has Hero raised flop with? I think our flop raise is pretty polarized- we either have AA, KK, QQ, AQ or a draw. A NFD paired the A on the turn. So on the river I think to V it looks like we are very strong here with an overpair or busted NFD with Ax making a pair of Aces. Or a missed FD or SD (limited SD combos). This is all apparent on the turn as well - river doesn’t change anything - and V calls turn. So IMHO he calls turn with a hand that can beat our Ax of spades (or maybe he holds Ax spades) or our single overpair. There aren’t a lot of bluffs here as Ax spades has made top pair so could be betting river for value. What hands would V call flop and turn with, not worried about an overpair or Ax? Certainly two pair or a set. Maybe AK spades.

I guess I need to ask what hands you would be targeting on river to fold to a raise that have called down so far? Outside of AK spades I can’t think of a hand that V would play like this that would fold to a pot sized river bet?

Edit: maybe KQo with K spades?

 

[JustinInMN]

I could see either 3 betting to $6-8, or calling. Getting heads up against a maniac is pretty good when you are in pos. So I might 3 bet a bit more often than just call.

It's not about bluffing, it's about taking control of the pot and going heads up instead of multiway. If the maniac is prone to 4 betting, then we can change our mind a bit. But the best way to win money from maniacs is playing big pots, heads up, in position.

Okay I am catching up here. I don't like the 3- bet pre even against a loose opener. If it's a maniac we would have to risk facing a four bet with this hand.

There is something to be said for folding out the button, but as hero, we shouldn't be fearing taking this pot multi way either. JTs is an excellent multi way hand and even heads up we as hero are going to have to hit this board somewhat hard. It's almost impossible to bluff your way out against a maniac.

I think flatting pre is clear.

On the flop is the time to spring into action. It doesn't get much better than this. I would put a stiff raise in with this against the maniac, because against a maniac, I am also going to bet two-pair-plus pretty hard.

I don't think hero raised enough on the flop personally, it's $12 to win $43 for the villain so he is always going to call and that doesn't seem ideal for a semi bluff. You need to use a sizing that makes him think stacks are going in at some point, that's the only way to give him pause now. (And on the flip side, you want to make sure you are playing for stacks if you hit.) A raise to $30 or $40 would have been better. And then we either take a free card on the turn or really bet a sizing that will leave a pot bet for the river.

I think a good second choice line is just flat in position to tell the story of a slowplayed monster raising at the end.

I like the $30 sizing on the turn. if we are going to have to bluff this pot the Ace is a good scare card and good for hero's 3 betting range pre. This might represent our last bluffing opportunity. If the Ace doesn't scare villain, I don't know what will.

Villain also has about $180 effective left in a pot of $115 dollars. I guess hero could just rip all rivers and hope.

Seeing the river, I really hate bluffing against maniacs, but I might put another $40 in just to make sure he folds any kx or draws that beat jack-h. but understand I am usually going to lose it. The other option is to rip it and send the message you can beat Ax, but maniacs don't always interpret messages. At the $40 sizing the bluff has to get through 1 time in 3 to show a profit. The risk in doing that is you have to give up if villain rips it back (with lower spades for example).

So I really don't know what to do on the river. I would guess if I were in the moment, I would check just knowing anything I put in the pot at this point is likely gone. Even a loose villain has a lot of calling hands on this board.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Have to bet. And don’t bet small that 9x looks you up. There is a chance Hero has the best hand vs something like 78ss, but I’m not checking back hoping that is the case. Bet $100. That is a mental barrier size for a lot of people in this size game. They aren’t calling very light for that amount. It could definitely get a fold from Qx hands even.

 

[JustinInMN]

Have to bet. And don’t bet small that 9x looks you up. There is a chance Hero has the best hand vs something like 78ss,

This is the paradox, the pot is so big it's probably worth bluffing at even if the bluff usually loses.

At the same time, the pot is so big, a maniac villain won't give it up easily.

My problem with the $100 sizing is hero has to fold to a villain shove for 80 more, I think shoving is preferable to giving maniac the chance to do that if he happens to be in the hopeless portion of his range.

Unfortunately if villain bets I think the only choices are rip it for about 1.7x pot or bet a value-looking size that will usually lose, but win just often enough to show a profit, or just give up and be happy to be shown smaller spades once in a while.

 

[MrCatPants]

What we don’t know here is : what is hero’s table image? Is the perception that Hero is 3 betting light? What types of hands has Hero raised flop with? I think our flop raise is pretty polarized- we either have AA, KK, QQ, AQ or a draw. A NFD paired the A on the turn. So on the river I think to V it looks like we are very strong here with an overpair or busted NFD with Ax making a pair of Aces. Or a missed FD or SD (limited SD combos). This is all apparent on the turn as well - river doesn’t change anything - and V calls turn. So IMHO he calls turn with a hand that can beat our Ax of spades (or maybe he holds Ax spades) or our single overpair. There aren’t a lot of bluffs here as Ax spades has made top pair so could be betting river for value. What hands would V call flop and turn with, not worried about an overpair or Ax? Certainly two pair or a set. Maybe AK spades.

I guess I need to ask what hands you would be targeting on river to fold to a raise that have called down so far? Outside of AK spades I can’t think of a hand that V would play like this that would fold to a pot sized river bet?

Edit: maybe KQo with K spades?

Hero has an image between TAG and LAG. Does get caught bluffing occasionally. But has it (or something solid at least) probably 4 out of 5 times it goes to showdown.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Have to bet. And don’t bet small that 9x looks you up. There is a chance Hero has the best hand vs something like 78ss, but I’m not checking back hoping that is the case. Bet $100. That is a mental barrier size for a lot of people in this size game. They aren’t calling very light for that amount. It could definitely get a fold from Qx hands even.

I'm still of a mind that by raising the flop, HERO is committed to barreling 3 streets regardless of the runout.

It sounds like the Villain is of the sticky variety - but they could just have a busted draw here. I guess I can get behind the logic of the $100 mental barrier - but it might appear suspicious after smallish bets/raises on the flop and turn. It'd be much more believable if HERO had raised to $30 on the flop and bet $55 or $60 on the turn.

I'd be curious to know what the Villain's body language was like after the ace hit the turn and HERO's subsequent bet after being checked to. Villain continuing when an ace hits the board seems a little strange if he only holds a one-pair hand. It's possible he has X.

Pot is $115 when the river hits the board - I'd probably bet $75. If HERO is called, he can table his hand and chalk it up to an advertising play.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm still of a mind that by raising the flop, HERO is committed to barreling 3 streets regardless of the runout.

This makes a ton of sense, this is the risk of bloating a pot that doesn't even have a-hi showdown value against a loose player.

Villain continuing when an ace hits the board seems a little strange if he only holds a one-pair

I am not so sure. It doesn't make sense to me that villain would check-call anything better than one pair on the turn and I would expect a loose villain to be floating a lot of Ax on the flop.

But also, it seems villain probably has at least one pair because he found the donk bet into hero's 3 bet pre.

 

[MrCatPants]

This hand is a NLHE hand later in the night where we were already pretty deep. 8 handed at this point.

SB: solid player with shades of a calling station - $200
BB: LAG - $500
UTG: Member here, so I'm not disclosing my thoughts - $100
MP: Maniac from some of my other threads, but more of a reasonable LAG tonight thus far - $250
HJ: Member here, so I'm not disclosing my thoughts - $250
CO: Hero -$450
BTN: TAG, winningest player at the game over time - $250

UTG Folds
MP Raises to $2
HJ Folds
Hero looks down at and RAISES to $7
Folds back to MP who CALLS

Pot is $15

Flop comes:

Villian leads for $8
Hero RAISES to $20
Villain pauses for a few seconds and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.
Hero bets $30
Villain calls

River is Turn is

Villain checks
HERO barrels again for $65.

Villain tanks for a bit and says "I missed my draw, but I do have something. Crying call."

Villain tables and takes the pot

 

[boltonguy]

Not surprising to see Hero lose this pot unfortunately.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

As for sizing you want to go bigger, probably close to pot.

....

He won’t level himself into thinking you could be value betting worse if he has something like A8ss.

to be fair your half pot bet probably still get folds from Qx, K high spades and 9x spades at a high frequency which is a lot if not most of his range and betting half pot it only has to get folds about 33% of the time to break even (maybe slightly more if he can have lower flush draws that you're beating anyways).

his range has much more queens than aces, along with a bunch of flush draws and maybe some combos of JT. very few sets. the only two pairs, which are the ones that reliably call, are A9ss and AQ. sucks when it happens but that's the cost of doing business.

 

[MrCatPants]

to be fair your half pot bet probably still get folds from Qx, K high spades and 9x spades at a high frequency which is a lot if not most of his range and betting half pot it only has to get folds about 33% of the time to break even (maybe slightly more if he can have lower flush draws that you're beating anyways).

his range has much more queens than aces, along with a bunch of flush draws and maybe some combos of JT. very few sets. the only two pairs, which are the ones that reliably call, are A9ss and AQ. sucks when it happens but that's the cost of doing business.

That's was pretty much my thinking. On a draw heavy board I was worried going bigger would look bluffy compared to the sizing. I woulda looked me up to with villians actual hand.

 

[Poker Zombie]

3-bet jam. I don't trust the shifty look in the BB/LAG's eyes. Take his game away from him early in the hand.

I should be banned from strategy threads. I'm terrible at poker.

It seems unlikely that villain would have called a preflop jam for stacks with .

Maybe I am good at poker...

 

[JustinInMN]

It seems unlikely that villain would have called a preflop jam for stacks with .

Maybe I am good at poker...

It's sooooted, and has an ace, snap call.

 

[grebe]

This hand is a NLHE hand later in the night where we were already pretty deep. 8 handed at this point.

SB: solid player with shades of a calling station - $200
BB: LAG - $500
UTG: Member here, so I'm not disclosing my thoughts - $100
MP: Maniac from some of my other threads, but more of a reasonable LAG tonight thus far - $250
HJ: Member here, so I'm not disclosing my thoughts - $250
CO: Hero -$450
BTN: TAG, winningest player at the game over time - $250

UTG Folds
MP Raises to $2
HJ Folds
Hero looks down at and RAISES to $7
Folds back to MP who CALLS

Pot is $15

Flop comes:

Villian leads for $8
Hero RAISES to $20
Villain pauses for a few seconds and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.
Hero bets $30
Villain calls

River is Turn is

Villain checks
Action on hero

Do you fire a bluff given the action, and if so how much, or give up?

Preflop: LOVE the 3bet here! This is a great hand to 3bet in position against a LAG....especially if we think we can isolate him. We are in a great position to win this pot! Calling caps our range...raising uncaps it.
Flop: LOVE the raise of the donk bet...however, your sizing absolutely stinks. You need to PUNISH him for this bet....it's a total probe bet and you need to tell him that you hit this harder than he did. Not to mention we flopped a monster draw. You made this bet too easy to call, you need to make him think there isa good chance he is putting his money in bad. I make it $30, but minimum is $25.
Turn: This card hits your range better than his. You have all the best hands....bet it! This is why you raised pre, take advantage. Make it chunky...like if you had AA, AK, AQ. Set up a river shove. 2/3 pot to pot.
River: DO IT! What are you doing this for if you can't finish. He is playing too many hands, give him the opportunity to fold them.