Live at the Bike! Nov 9, 2017 | What's the thought process here? (1 Viewer)

[chkmte]

To follow along, check out this video starting at the 19:15 mark.

The game is 25/50/100 NLHE with some familiar faces like Berkey, Polk, Jungleman, etc. There's a couple of players whom I've not heard of named Rick and Antonio. All stacks are at least 200BB deep.

We go to the flop in an unraised pot of 950. UTG is Jason with , +1 is Ryan with , in the HJ is Antonio with , and in the CO is Danmerrrrrrr with . The flop comes . Everyone checks. The turn comes . Jason and Ryan check. Antonio bets 400. Danmerrrrrr and Jason fold. Ryan then raises to 1600. The pot is now 2950 with Antonio needing to call another 1200 to continue.

Now, let's jump back to when Antonio bets 400 into a 950 pot with on a board. What's the thought process here? A bet of 400 into a 950 isn't going to chase away any flush draws. It's also going to get called (if not raised) everytime by any . Even an might call here...maybe. What was the purpose of this bet?

Moving on to the re-raise of 1600 from Ryan. Does Antonio really think Ryan is raising here with a ? Could Ryan be semi-bluffing the club draw? The river comes .

So, we've got Ryan with , Antonio with and a board that reads . Ryan leads out with a pot-sized bet of 3500 into a pot of 4150 and Antonio insta-calls. What did Antonio think Ryan was holding - a missed flush draw?

I'm sure Antonio is a decent player as he did sit with 10,000. But can anyone justify the line he took? Perhaps I'm overlooking something.

 

[kaimat]

Here is my ignorant analysis of the hand:

Ryan checks the turn waiting for someone to bet so he can catch a big fish.
Antonio assumes if someone had a Q they would bet, so he makes a small bet to rep the flush draw.
River comes and the flush draw doesn't get there.
Ryan makes a big bet repping Qs.
Antonio thinks Ryan is trying to steal the bot and insta-calls thinking his 7s beat Ryans two clubs.
Ryan reels in his fish.

I suck at poker, so this could be way off, but I remember reading or hearing somewhere that beginning poker players suck (like me) and low stakes players are much more difficult. But when you get to high enough stakes the typical GTO way of playing isn't as set as it for the 2/5 paupers and pro level players kind of revert back to a mix of GTO and beginner-level bluffs.

^^ That may all be nonsense, but this has been my interpretation of this hand.

 

[Legend5555]

The bet on the turn is a pretty standard value/protection bet. Anyone in front would have likely bet a Q into him, and anyone behind with a Q would have likely bet the flop. You don't have to price out draws in multiaction as much, and here's why. With so many people left to act, any flush draw that just calls has to worry about others coming in or possibly raising. So just calling with a non-nut draw in multiway action can be hard to navigate.

After the raise, I'm sure Antonio is thinking that it's hard for his opponent to have a Q here given what I've said above. He also probably knows his protection bet looks like one. So a good opponent could be raising with a draw here. So he calls in position to see what the river brings.

In the river, he probably instacalls because it's unlikely his opponent bets just an A on the river. And if he had the A high flush draw, it's likely a hand he raises pre or bet at some point, not check raise turn.

Now here is the problem with Antonio's play. The only real straight draw is 57 or 35. 35 is pretty unlikely, and Antonio has two 7s. Not only that, but Antonio has the 7c. That's the exact card you want your opponent to be bluffing with here. I don't really fault the turn call too much (though I still think he should fold turn), but I think the river call is clearly bad and pretty optimistic at best given you block a lot of your opponent's bluffing range.