Let's play some PLO

xt!

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Playing some deep stacked 5/5 the other night. The game is going through spurts of absolutely ridiculous action where there are 3 or 4 all in per hand, then the action is quickly dying off when one of the action players wins one of the hands and quadruples up. This is a quieter part of the night.

Cast of characters relevant to the hand.

Very solid nut peddler is in EP, playing around 4k from a 1k buyin.

CO: I'm playing around 2k off of 2k in buyins. I am playing a very wide range of hands and raising all of them. There are a lot of bad players in the game, a lot of action players, and a lot of tilt. I want to see flops, especially in position.

BTN: Tilted reg, he's had a very rough couple of weeks and looking to gamble and get it back. Playing maybe $900 off of $3k or $4k in buyins.

The hand: a couple limpers and I raise As9x4s4x.

Three callers, including the two mentioned above. $95 in the pot.

Flop Ax9s7x rainbow.

Checks to me and I bet $90. Both players mentioned above call. $365 in the pot.

Turn 8s. EP bets $365. WWYD?
 

manamongkids

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Fold, almost 100% of the time there is a combo draw where J10 is required to make a straight, someone has it in their hands. If you had As/Ax/spade/x and could be drawing to the nut boat AND the nut flush, then that would be a different story.
 

DrStrange

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The nut peddler bets pot? Let's assume he holds what his bet implies, a made straight having flopped some sort of wrap. I think it doubtful Hero's top two are the best hand. Some chance villain also has a set or two pair in addition to his straight.

Hero has nine flushing outs and four full house outs. The :ts: and :7s: are faintly tainted, lets say Hero has 25% equity.

We also have to wonder about the button. Hero would be happy if button calls but quite unhappy if button raises. Overall, I'd rate button as a slight problem.

Hero has a minor RIO problem, a few of his outs make hands that might turn into problem hands. Not likely, but not out of the question.

What would I do? I would eyeball button and see if he is telegraphing his intentions. If I read button as loaded to fold his hand, I call. Otherwise I fold. Hero's implied odds just make this a call for me vs nut peddler but I don't want to play for stacks if button raises.

DrStrange
 

Ben

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It sucks, but fold. We don't have any implied odds against nut-peddler - he's going to c/f if we hit, and we don't have any bluff outs against JT. Button could make things more interesting, but we're only really happy if he calls, which is unlikely given his stack size. Almost certainly he's going to either ship it or fold, both of which tilt the math against us.

The math isn't far off though - if we have implied "tilt equity" against nut-peddler, I might still call. :cool:
 

bergs

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So I call the 365 and tilt shoves for 735. Nut peddler confirms it reopens the betting and he repots it. Wwyd?

You're up against 2 sets? Repot all in and bink.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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About $1500 more to win about $3300? If all your outs are live you have 13 outs. Probably a few of those are gone, and you probably need at least 11 to make the math correct. But I like to gambool, so f it I call. Implied nut peddler tilt odds and all.
 

Ben

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So by my math we need to call ~$1520 to win ~$3350 - we need 31.2% equity. Best case against JTxx with none of our outs, we are at 32.5%. For each A, 9, or spade in one of villains' hands we lose 2.5% - so if villain just has JT9x (no spades) we shouldn't be calling. I'd say the odds that villain doesn't have a 9 or spade in his hand are approximately zero, and he may very well have more than one - so, still a fold. :(

Edit: note of course that this is with the benefit of an odds calculator. At the table after having gotten myself into this, I'm never, ever folding.
 

xt!

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For those wondering why I called the first time... I figured I could value bet 200 to 500 on any ace, 9, or spade river (dependent on what card and if he gave away any tells on it) and I could bluff shove a 7 or an 8. Thoughts on that sub-question?
 

Chippy McChiperson

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If you going to bluff shove a 7 or 8, shouldn't you also shove an A or 9? Otherwise the people paying attention may start to figure you out.
 

xt!

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I don't play with this guy often enough to be concerned with disguising bluffing betsizing ranges on hyper wet boards with bloated pots.
 

Ben

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For those wondering why I called the first time... I figured I could value bet 200 to 500 on any ace, 9, or spade river (dependent on what card and if he gave away any tells on it) and I could bluff shove a 7 or an 8. Thoughts on that sub-question?

Small value bet if you hit, sure. I don't see how he folds, particularly if it's one of the boat cards. I don't think the hope of getting in another tiny bet if you hit changes the math substantively though. I'm not sure your bluff-shove on a 7 or 8 is going to work - if I'm villain I'm less likely to give you credit for boating and jamming it on those cards as you're much more likely to have made an underfull in that case, which you probably wouldn't jam... You're basically repping aces full then, and you can't just be going around giving maniacs credit for aces full, even if you are a nut-peddler. ;) Although, that isn't to say that it WON'T work - he may just see a pile of chips going in after the board pairs and insta-muck.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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So by my math we need to call ~$1520 to win ~$3350 - we need 31.2% equity. Best case against JTxx with none of our outs, we are at 32.5%. For each A, 9, or spade in one of villains' hands we lose 2.5% - so if villain just has JT9x (no spades) we shouldn't be calling. I'd say the odds that villain doesn't have a 9 or spade in his hand are approximately zero, and he may very well have more than one - so, still a fold. :(

Edit: note of course that this is with the benefit of an odds calculator. At the table after having gotten myself into this, I'm never, ever folding.

Don't forget there is anther villain in the hand, so there are only 36 other cards. 13 outs puts us at 36.111%. Still, 11 outs out of 36 is 30.555% equity, which is slightly lower than the 31.2% line. And most likely more than 2 outs are no good.
 

DrStrange

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Hero's desired cards could be in the muck, in the stub, burned or in some other player's hands. We know eight cards - the four hero has and the four face up on the board. So, 44 unknown cards, 13 are "outs" and 31 are bricks. On average every four card hand is going to have one of Hero's outs - we can't reevaluate Hero's equity on the speculation that more outs than expected are in the villain hands.

Hero has one card to come, 13 times out of 41 Hero gets one of the cards he wants. That is roughly 30% of the time.


DrStrange
 

onerand

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Agree with Bill and others that at least one 9 and possibly two are dead, at the least - although JT8x is possible. Same for spades, one or two probably dead.

On my good/sober days I fold to the initial turn bet with these stacks and not closing action and where EP can repot. It is error to split up the math on the turn after each bet even if all outs are live because you are putting in $1800 on the turn. It is a fold both times on the turn.

The pro looks like a guy who min-buys each time, and any additional tilt you may put on him is not worth the cost.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Hero's desired cards could be in the muck, in the stub, burned or in some other player's hands. We know eight cards - the four hero has and the four face up on the board. So, 44 unknown cards, 13 are "outs" and 31 are bricks. On average every four card hand is going to have one of Hero's outs - we can't reevaluate Hero's equity on the speculation that more outs than expected are in the villain hands.

Hero has one card to come, 13 times out of 41 Hero gets one of the cards he wants. That is roughly 30% of the time.


DrStrange

My point is, of the eight cards the villains hold, if they have 2 of your outs its not a profitable call. Odds are they have at least two. But I still call.
 

DrStrange

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and my point is - pick any eight cards currently unknown and expect to find two or three of Hero's outs because 30% of the deck are outs & 30% x 8 cards = 2.4 cards. Those cards in villain's hand are already built into the math and you shouldn't make any special provision for them.

DrStrange
 
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