Let's Play a Hand From the Villain's Perspective

MoscowRadio

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Last Sunday night I hosted a tournament at my house. It was a full table and everyone started with 200,000 in chips. We're only paying out the top two places and we're down to three players.

***Player Profiles***

Villain (who is in the BB) is a tricky-trappy sort of player who likes to get in with premium hands and disguise them as much as he can. He leads a lot of flops with overpairs or absolutely nothing. He scarcely 3-bets to keep people in the hand and he is a pretty good thinking player some of the time, but doesn't really know how to plan a hand from start to finish and often lands himself in ugly situations when put to the test. Hero knows this. Villain has around 800,000 in chips.

Hero (Button) is short stack at the table with around 550,000 in chips. Hero likes to open raise with a pretty wide range (any pocket pair, low suited connectors, or total trash bags to pick up blinds), especially when we're on the bubble because he knows that the others will be trying to make the money. Villain knows this.

SB is a total rock and is pretty easy to push around. He thinks more in terms of results which have not been good for him lately. SB has around 650,000 in chips.

***Preflop***

Blinds are 8,000/16,000 and Hero opens for a raise to 40,000. SB folds and Villain finds :qc::qs:. He thinks for a minute and just flat calls.

***The Flop***

The flop comes out :6h::4c::9s: and Villain leads out for 80,000. Hero just calls. We have a plan for this hand that could mean disaster or total success.

This puts effective stacks at 430,000 and there is 248,000 in the middle. What cards do you think might be bad for Villain and if a brick hits what do you think Villain should do?
 

trever

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Villain, to varying degrees, isn't going to like a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, K or A. So most likely, his plan to check-raise the turn will fizzle and turn into a check-call.
If the turn does brick, he should continue with his plan and check-raise all in.
 

grandgnu

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***The Flop***

The flop comes out :6h::4c::9s: and Villain leads out for 80,000. Hero just calls. We have a plan for this hand that could mean disaster or total success.

This puts effective stacks at 430,000 and there is 248,000 in the middle. What cards do you think might be bad for Villain and if a brick hits what do you think Villain should do?

If I'm Villian I'm looking to get you to commit your stack and given we're three-handed and I've got QQ in this spot I'm not overly fearing you have any premium hand here. I'm not seeing monsters under the bed if a straightening or an overcard hits the turn.

Essentially if I was Villian I'm ready to play for Heroes stack here, regardless of turn cards. I'm probably lean towards checking the turn and letting Hero hang himself here and snap-calling a shove (or check-raising to get it all-in)
 

MoscowRadio

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If I'm Villian I'm looking to get you to commit your stack and given we're three-handed and I've got QQ in this spot I'm not overly fearing you have any premium hand here. I'm not seeing monsters under the bed if a straightening or an overcard hits the turn.

Essentially if I was Villian I'm ready to play for Heroes stack here, regardless of turn cards. I'm probably lean towards checking the turn and letting Hero hang himself here and snap-calling a shove (or check-raising to get it all-in)

The problem with Villain is that he is guilty of "monsters-under-the-bed" thinking. This is where he ends up hanging himself a lot of the time.

***The Turn***

There is 248,000 in the middle and the turn brings the :7s:. This time Villain surprisingly checks and Hero takes the betting lead and puts out 120,000 with the plan of shoving just about any river card with a stack of 310,000 against what will be a pot of 488,000 if Villain calls. Hero knows that Villain is not going to be eager to put in that much with what Hero thinks Villain has. Hero is putting Villain on a hand like 9T or maybe even TT. Villain goes into the tank and eventually just calls the 120,000 bet.

What range can we assign Hero??
 
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