K5s in possition (prop bet in play) (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

Playing $0.25/$0.50 seven handed, $20 buy in max. The is our Christmas game and has nothing to do with the crazy folks that Hero plays with in the 1-2 game I have posted before. This game is loose-passive. Hero has a fair amount of fold equity vs the table. That being said most of the players can be rather sticky. There is a special rule in place for tonight's game - win a hand with a red king in your hole cards and you get to draw a gift from Santa's bag. The gifts are worth $5 - $10. The best gift, a RC helicopter is already gone. (The Santa's bag give away was a huge success. We had 21 prizes and they lasted four hours. Everyone won at least one prize.)


Cast of characters:


Hero is CO with $150. Hero has been on a hot run, crushing folks again and again. It has been wonderful {for Hero anyway}. The table is giving Hero a fair amount of respect. Several people have been stacked chasing their red king and coming up short. Hero has been able to raise preflop and take down the pot uncontested a few times tonight but Hero gets calls more than folds.


Everyone is playing this hand. Stacks range from $20 to $100, mostly in the $20 to $40 range. We'll get specific later. It is notable that everyone has a huge amount of time together. We play once or twice a week for ten+ years.

The hand:


Three limps to hero who holds . Fold, limp or raise? If raising, how much? What is Hero's c-bet plan if recommending a raise?


DrStrange

 

[Bradcorn]

I just limp to see a flop at this point. If stacks were bigger I would put in a small raise to build up the pot but since most stacks are in the $20-$40 range I don't think it will be a problem to get those in post flop with just a limp.

call>fold>raise

 

[atomiktoaster]

The math says raise, right? The pot for everybody else is $2, but it's effectively $7-12 for hero with the prop bet. That makes me think about limiting the number of hands to deal with after the flop, rather than building the pot. I'd raise whatever amount I thought would get rid of some of the junk hands ($2-3?) and hope there's no ace on the flop. Depending on the stack sizes, c-bet $10-15 no matter what the board, unless somebody has $50+. Mostly gut feelings / how I'd play it here.

 

[DrStrange]

*** On to the flop ***

Hero raises to $3.50. Everyone folds except for MP. Two way action to see flop, $8.75 in the pot.

Flop:
MP checks, action on Hero, check or bet if betting how much.

MP is playing $45 on $100 buy in. MP is a loose cannon, highly unpredictable, weak-bad, much better as a target for a value bet than a target for a bluff. He can fold {sometimes} but he is quite sticky in many cases. He has a massive amount of air in his range - he bets a lot of scare cards. MP's betting patterns tell a story, his bigger bets tend to be bluff. It is plausible that MP will fold to a c-bet. It is also plausible he will bluff check raise. Of course, he could easily call with ace high. For what it is worth, hero has been able to pick off MP several times - once calling a river bluff with ace high.

Hero doesn't usually play K5s -=- DrStrange

 

[atomiktoaster]

$8 and think really hard if you get the check raise...

 

[DrStrange]

Do we think Hero's fold equity is much less if the c-bet is smaller? Say $5 or $6?

DrStrange

 

[Bradcorn]

I don't like a c-bet. The flop misses all of your range and you are up against sticky opponents.

 

[snooptodd]

Sure, it misses his range, but it has to miss MP's range too. If MP thought he was behind PF, he surely thinks he's behind now. I'd C-bet and (I like $7.50 because I usually bet quarters too) and let it go on a jam.

 

[atomiktoaster]

Do we think Hero's fold equity is much less if the c-bet is smaller? Say $5 or $6?

DrStrange

That's going to depend heavily on the read, and hero past play, I think. $7 or 8 has me starting to feel pot committed for the whole stack if I'm the villain while I might be able to get away from $5. $7 or 8 might also read like an out of character greedy value bet from hero. The extra couple bucks might fold me out of something like JTs, for example.

 

[DrStrange]

*** on to the turn ***

Hero bets $5.50. Villain ponders a bit, then calls. Two way action going to the turn, $19.25 in the pot. Effective stacks $36.

Turn: < >

Villain checks. Action on Hero, check or bet - if betting, how much?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

check

 

[atomiktoaster]

Try the $8 now. The most entertaining ending to this hand is now villains shove after he pairs his ace on the river...

 

[Bradcorn]

Sure, it misses his range, but it has to miss MP's range too. If MP thought he was behind PF, he surely thinks he's behind now. I'd C-bet and (I like $7.50 because I usually bet quarters too) and let it go on a jam.

True - but how many times does the villan think he is behind enough to fold to a cbet. I can't see much of anything folding to this flop if the villan is not a for or fold player.

i guess my thought is - you can't cbet every hand, you become way too exploitable.

I would cbet if I missed but a Jack, queen, or ace came on the flop if it got checked to me....and I had a good image. I read calling a villan as sticky as someone who thinks you are bluffing too much and wants to call down.

I don't like the flop texture or the table situation for this hand and would lean toward a check and not cbet

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

I peel one off and get the free river.

and honestly I am leaning toward a call on most rivers if the villan wakes up and leads out. King high might be okay, but the call depends on the river and if the villan bets/way he bets and how much

 

[DarPodo]

If there's a gift you want on the table, shove. Otherwise, snap check.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Finish ***

Hero bets $12, Villain calls.

River: < >

Villain bets $10. {we know he commonly does this as a bluff} Hero raises $20 to a total of $30, more than enough to put villain all in. Villain whines but calls.

Villain tables and complains about his bad luck (which is true given the flop).

Hero draws a ticket and wins a wrapped box (not one of my gifts) and wins a brass donkey car protector / bottle opener.

DrStrange

 

[DrStrange]

How I see this in hindsight:

The gifts are not worth all that much - best case a $10 scratch off or some nice ($6) chocolate. No idea what is in the wrapped boxes. Let's say the chance to draw a gift is worth $5 plus the meta game value of playing along with the promotion.

Preflop: Hero had a chance to steal a $2.25 pot plus get to draw a prize. Hero makes a steal attempt knowing that a) he has won several small pots this way tonight and b) Hero is getting some respect for his c-bets. Risking $3.5 to win $2.25 + $5 seems like a good enough chance. Hero's post flop plan is to play fit/fold vs 3+ villains and try to steal the flop vs 1 or 2 villains on a safe flop.

Flop: Hero got heads up and a dry flop. The down side is the villain was not the best choice from the table (but not the worst either). Hero stuck to his plan and fired a second bet. No dice.

Turn: Hero should shut down here. The three isn't going to scare the villain and there is no reason to think a second post flop bet will work any better than the first one did. Betting reopens the action for villain to raise, something we know he does from time to time. I see this street as a terrible mistake - limited upside and significant down side. Hero needs to take the free card and hope for luck. I'd call this an $8 error (16bb). One of the three biggest errors of the night.

River: Villain has a leak that cost him a sizable chunk of his stack. A check/call river line by villain likely leaves him $10 or $15 left.

The prize promotion clouds everyone's judgment. They want to get in the action and value the "fun" of winning a prize more than the real value. "The scratch-off could be worth thousands!" I will say everyone had a great time. I would do something like this again, but not very soon.

DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

As you said, your play on the turn was not optimal. But Villain's play on the river was way way way worse. He is never ahead when he gets raised, and just decided to give you all his moneys. As far as the promotions go...well let's just say that if you want a $10 scratch off bad enough just go ahead and buy one. EV on that is probably about $6 or so (total guess) so that is also suboptimal. However, getting caught playing crappy cards (and winning) is definitely +EV.

 

[Milo013]

Not to be a pedant, but the red king did not "play" for your straight. I am assuming this is irrelevant, based on your post? Interesting notion for a holiday game. Might have to try this out Friday night.