Just bad luck or? (1 Viewer)

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boltonguy

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So weekend nights on Ignition 25 NL Zone 6-max are always the highest variance times of the week, but tonight I was down 7 buyins ($175) over 724 hands at one point as I called the following jams preflop:
  • Hero opened QQ UTG +1 and +2 jammed; Hero calls and +2 shows AA and holds
  • Hero opened QQ UTG and CO jammed; Hero calls and CO shows AA and holds
  • Hero opens AKo from CO and BN jams; Hero calls and BN shows KK and holds
  • Hero opens ATs from SB and BB jams; Hero calls and BB shows AKo and holds
I also rivered the nut flush and jammed into a boat so that stinks :(

So maybe the last call in SB was dumb but are you guys folding QQ or AKo to an IP jam? I was able to run $95 back up so down net -$80 for the night but this is my biggest downswing in several months. Last week I had 66 and 44 jam into my EP AA and I held so was surprised to see no bluffs tonight.

Feedback - fishy calls or just bad luck?
 
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boltonguy said:
So weekend nights on Ignition 25 NL Zone 6-max are always the highest variance times of the week, but tonight I was down 7 buyins ($175) over 724 hands at one point as I called the following jams preflop:
  • Hero opened QQ UTG +1 and +2 jammed; Hero calls and +2 shows AA and holds
  • Hero opened QQ UTG and CO jammed; Hero calls and CO shows AA and holds
  • Hero opens AKo from CO and BN jams; Hero calls and BN shows KK and holds
  • Hero opens ATs from SB and BB jams; Hero calls and BB shows AKo and holds
I also rivered the nut flush and jammed into a boat so that stinks :(

So maybe the last call in SB was dumb but are you guys folding QQ or AKo to an IP jam? I was able to run $95 back up so down net -$80 for the night but this is my biggest downswing in several months. Last week I had 66 and 44 jam into my EP AA and I held so was surprised to see no bluffs tonight.

Feedback - fishy calls or just bad luck?
Click to expand...
You should have gotten away from the A10 hand unless the BB had given you good reason. Even then, I think it's rare that you are ahead in that spot.

I think you probably know that this is poker. Sometimes this crap seems to go on and on. Is really frustrating, but it's just part of the game.
 
Thanks @Nanook just looking for reassurance - agree the ATs was dumb but I was tilting by then!
I kept thinking "I cant be folding QQ preflop to a jam can I?" I mean sure Phil Helmuth would fold but I'm not that nitty.
If you havent seen it watch Phil fold AKo preflop to a 3 bet and KK to a flop raise (bluff) in this season of High Stakes Poker.
 
Sometimes people bluff jam, but in my limited experience, if they jam or call a jam online, they have a pretty strong hand. I've lost track of the number of cracked KK or QQ I've lost with. Now I'll try to see a flop to know where I stand instead of committing the stack pre-flop. It is hard to fold a high pair pre-flop, but sometimes you have to believe what the other guy is representing.
 
Bad luck? No way...You are almost never a favorite here. You are behind a high percentage of the time and you are flipping the other small percentage of the time. Total leak bro. Like how many times do you see JJ or worse? Very rarely do people bluff at this limit. Generally when they advertise they have it they usually do
 
Just so I get the acton...
You open to what? 50-75ct on nl25 I assume and villains shove $25? I think effective stack sizes matter here if you want to know if it was bad luck or just you paying off some nits who figured out you're not folding to any 3bet size.
 
I open 3BB from EP, they 3 bet, I four bet, they jam. So we’re folding AKo and QQ to 5bet jams? Just seems tight but it would have saved me a lot of $$
 
OfficerLovejoy said:
Just so I get the acton...
You open to what? 50-75ct on nl25 I assume and villains shove $25? I think effective stack sizes matter here if you want to know if it was bad luck or just you paying off some nits who figured out you're not folding to any 3bet size.
Click to expand...
He is playing zone poker. You get moved each hand. You have zero idea how the opponent plays. Your suggesting everyone 100% folds to every 3 bet jam? That is exploitable too....

If you look at it like it is the 3 bet jam range of the player pool, I would be willing to bet that there are enough 3 bet jams with AK, JJ, 1010, 99 etc that you have to call off QQ to a 3 bet jam.

I'm not sure how I could prove this, just because it is basically impossible to collect any hand history, but I am struggling with the idea that folding to a 3 bet jam with QQ is +EV unless you have an excellent profile on the villain.
 
I have hand histories of every hand played with all hole cards for over 50k hands in poker tracker but it isn’t easy to build reports to get this type of info out- I’ve tried
 
I think OOP I’m incented to 4bet with my strongest hands and bluffs like A5s vs playing a 3 bet pot OOP.
 
Last week a similar scenario unfolded twice when I had AA and villain had 44 and 66. Of course I snap called but QQ would be a call there too.
 
Nanook said:
He is playing zone poker. You get moved each hand. You have zero idea how the opponent plays. Your suggesting everyone 100% folds to every 3 bet jam? That is exploitable too....

If you look at it like it is the 3 bet jam range of the player pool, I would be willing to bet that there are enough 3 bet jams with AK, JJ, 1010, 99 etc that you have to call off QQ to a 3 bet jam.

I'm not sure how I could prove this, just because it is basically impossible to collect any hand history, but I am struggling with the idea that folding to a 3 bet jam with QQ is +EV unless you have an excellent profile on the villain.
Click to expand...
Where have I been suggesting 100% folds to 3bet jams? :D

I asked about stack sizes and if they were 3bet jams as hero made it out in his op ('I open, +2 jams).
It turns out they were 5 bet pots. Vs unknown this is a simple math problem that can be solved with equilab and depends on stack sizes and the amount to call when villain jams.
 
Nanook said:
He is playing zone poker. You get moved each hand. You have zero idea how the opponent plays. Your suggesting everyone 100% folds to every 3 bet jam? That is exploitable too....

If you look at it like it is the 3 bet jam range of the player pool, I would be willing to bet that there are enough 3 bet jams with AK, JJ, 1010, 99 etc that you have to call off QQ to a 3 bet jam.

I'm not sure how I could prove this, just because it is basically impossible to collect any hand history, but I am struggling with the idea that folding to a 3 bet jam with QQ is +EV unless you have an excellent profile on the villain.
Click to expand...
100% no. Most of the time yes. The fact you don’t know your opponent is more reason not to be stacking off to a 3 bet jam. If you had history and your opponent is always doing this to you that would be a different story. Stacking off with QQ after the villain 3 bet jams when you have 100bb and no history with them is never +EV. It’s ok to fold.
 
Well given a normal 5 bet action 100bb effective - hero opens $1 utg with QQ, +2 makes it $3, folds to hero, hero 4bets to $9, +2 shoves for $25.

So hero needs to call $16 in a $34.35 pot.

If you give villain a range of QQ+ and AKo+ you have 39,96% equity. So you are most likely behind. Given the pot odds it's still a call.

IMG_20210313_150817.jpg
 
OfficerLovejoy said:
........If you give villain a range of QQ+ and AKo+ you have 39,96% equity. So you are most likely behind. Given the pot odds it's still a call
Click to expand...

This was kind of my point and add to that that occasionally people 3 bet jam with lots of other stuff that they probably shouldn't makes it even more so a call here.

My point wasn't that you shouldn't consider folding to a 3 bet jam as there certainly are situations that warrant that. This just isn't one of those.
 
3 bet jam you probably aren’t getting the right price. The example above is 5 bet
 
Ok just need to vent here. This hand just happened.

Hero is in SB with AA and $26.30 stack.
UTG opens to $1 which is larger than standard.
CO raises to $3
Hero raises to $14.50.

UTG jams $18.35
CO folds
Hero snap calls.

UTG shows 99 and hits a 9 on the flop. Grrr .....
 
Just opened QQ in UTG
SB 3 bets, BB flats
Hero 4 bets, SB jams $25, Hero calls. SB shows AKs
Hero holds

There is some justice in this world.
 
In general, I try to avoid calling off my stack with AK. Prefer to apply the pressure with it instead.
 
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