Tourney Judging the length of a tourney

HalfFish

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Hi guys! Bit of a noob here, I’m afraid. Been reading through a pile of structure posts (to get an idea of various breakdowns in preparation for ordering my first non-dice chip set). On to the question...

Occasionally a post will mention something like “this tourney should end around level 14”. Is judging this likely length of tournament “science” or “art”? Is there a sort of mathematical formula I could apply? Or is it mostly experience led?
 

Mojo1312

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When the table is down to 25 big blinds generally. 20 or less if your players are nitty.
 

trigs

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When the BB is around 5% of the total chips in play it should be over soon.
 

BGinGA

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Generally speaking, a non-ante tournament is unlikely to last past the level where there are 20 total big blinds in play, usually finishing one level sooner. Events with antes tend to run a couple of levels quicker.

The actual stack distribution, prize distribution, and remaining player tendencies can also affect overall tournament length. Very evenly balanced stacks, large pay jumps, and tight or passive players can make an event run longer.
 
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