Is this bluff dumb? (1 Viewer)

Bill_Man618

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Okay so I really want some feedback here because I think I played this spot correct and just got the wrong result. But I want some other opinions.

7 handed game 10¢/25¢ all players I have history with. I’m on BTN with the 50¢ straddle with Ks9h.

2 limps to CO who is a skilled player we’ve played together weekly for 3 years so he knows my play pretty well. He raises to $2.05
I call and everyone else folds
Flop (~$7) Tx4h9d
CO bets $2.05
I call
Turn (~$11) Tx4h9d4d
He bets $3.25
I raise to $12
He calls
River (~$35) 5d
He checks
I jam for $25.25
He tanks and tanks and tanks and calls with JcTd

Through the hand I had put him on top pair good kicker. So that’s why I was raising turn and jamming river to put pressure on that hand. I figured he’d jam turn with most nutted hands and call with top pair hands.

Also how in the fuck does he make that call?!?!?
 
so after actually reading the hand, what are you trying to rep? back door diamonds? AT? T9? what are you repping with your turn raise?

Looks like a standard river call from someone who knows how you play like you said. Only you really know from your sample size with the player if he folds his top pair in a similar spot.
This single data point says that he doesnt.
 
so after actually reading the hand, what are you trying to rep? back door diamonds? AT? T9? what are you repping with your turn raise?

Looks like a standard river call from someone who knows how you play like you said. Only you really know from your sample size with the player if he folds his top pair in a similar spot.
This single data point says that he doesnt.
So yeah I think I was repping AT, T9, 99, TT, or something like A4. I was trying to rep something like an ATdd for the backdoor flush but he blocked that so I’m sure that factored into the call. But to answer the second question I thought he was capabale of folding there and figured it would be a tank fold with a hand like the one he had. But I guess I was wrong on that one.
 
With bluffs it’s really all about frequency to value bets. It’s dumb if you if you do it too often, but fine if you do it at the appropriate frequencies.

The Villain’s call is light but also okay at the right frequencies.
 
Its not a bad bluff. You could have A4 maybe 54 suited and some over cards with diamonds. At the end of the day a bluff is mostly about knowing your opponent more than it being a good bluff based on the cards. Maybe he folds a lot and thought he had a read on you.
 
Looks like a standard river call from someone who knows how you play like you said.
I'm sure this is it. Maybe he knows you're more likely to value bet for $10 there than jam. Maybe he knows you'd have re-raise his continuation bet if you hit that flop. Maybe you tap your foot when you're bluffing.
When people are that familiar with their opponents, it could be so many things that you haven't told us with the black letter strategy facts.
 
First off - glad to see you wanting to bluff well. Such an important part of crushing micro / small stakes. In addition to what has already been said above, instead of asking was it a good bluff I’d be asking myself how often I play lines like this with the range you think you’re representing.

For example, are you known to be capable of floating the flop on a naked, or weak, BD FD? If not, that takes a lot of flush combos out of your range on the river jam. Are you often trapping top boat by calling the turn in hopes villan improves to a straight, flush, or smaller boat? If so, that takes away a lot of your flopped sets in your range. Do you take lines like this with TPTK on a T high board when the PF aggressor has bet every street? Those points alone take away pretty much the whole range you say you’re trying to represent with your 3 bet turn and river jam.

Lastly, if you have a lot of history against this player, why did you pick this spot for a big bluff? I’d try setting up your big bluffs against players that know you really well in spots where you’re in position and have nuttier outs (and ideally MORE) outs than what you had here. Remember - this is a cash game. Take your time and choose your spots wisely against the strong players.

In summary - why turn a middle pair oop on a unfavorable board against a skilled player that knows you well?
 
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Here is my opinion:

Looking at this hand, it appears that you called a pre flop raise of four times the big blind with a marginal (K9) hand in a seven handed game. In a seven handed game this seems like an automatic fold to me.

If you call a raise that large pre-flop, instead of re-raising or jamming all in, your opponent likely puts you on a semi-premium hand like AK, AQ, AJ, KQ or KJ. None of those hands connect with the flop and he has top pair.

The turn does not change anything, in your opponent’s mind you have not improved and it likely seemed suspicious that you raised on the turn but not the flop. There is no way in this situation you would re-raise to $12 with trips or quads; you would just call to get maximum value. You would likely just call in this situation too with a flush draw. He can only put you on a high flush draw.

On the river the flush draw gets there but your all in jam likely seems suspicious, because if you got there with a flush you would have bet for value rather than a jam all in.

It also does not hurt that he had a good bluff catching hand, has been playing with you for years and is a good player….
 
Depends on your history here. Your turn raise, the way it's played, you should be unlikely to have a 4. Your preflop call too also puts you with a lot of open ended/gutter straight draws on the flop. Your odds of playing the hand this way and hitting the flush without the 10d in your hand is pretty low - which your opponent happens to hold (which of course you can't know, but it's an important card for him to use in reasoning to a call.

If your history has you bluffing, there's a lot of bluffs you could have here and the made hands don't follow your betting pattern as much - more weighted towards bluffs and so a call pays off more often than not. If you generally play tight, just a soul read from villain I guess.
 
A successful bluff is like telling a good story. Bluffs win out when people believe the story you tell them. Let's look at the story you told here.

Preflop you told a story about having a hand that people want to see a flop with. Nothing wrong so far. Some people will wonder why call 4x pre but the two limpers forced that raise to go a little higher so I'm not thinking much yet. You just have something worth seeing a flop with.

Post flop .... CO leads out and you just call. Combine that with your preflop play and I am thinking "maybe he has Q J and flop left him open ended. Makes sense with the call preflop".

Turn ...... CO leads out and you raise almost the size of the pot. Now my brain starts to think about what you have again ...... "Well, if he had Qd Jd, well, yeah he added a flush draw but his odds of winning the hand drop from almost a coin flip to 3-2. Doesn't make sense to raise here, especially since I have one of his diamonds ..... If he flopped a set and was slow playing it, well I am betting into him so why stop slow playing now?..... Nope not that no flopped set ...... No way he sees this flop with just a 4 much less calling the flop with just a 4 ...... I think I just caught him with his hand in the cookie jar."

Your story wasn't a good story. If your intent was to call the flop to bluff the turn and river, when the board paired you should have bailed.

A better story would have been just call preflop, min raise flop (make them wonder about a set), pot raise turn (set just went full). That story is more believable.

Whenever you are bluffing always ask yourself what story are you trying to tell and if that story makes sense with everything else that has happened so far. A good bluff IS NEVER JUST SHIPPING CHIPS TO THE MIDDLE. People will call that. Tell a story and make it believable. That is how good bluffs win pots.
 
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This is just a fold pre of your planning to play for profitability. Don't get married to defending your straddle. Even if just paying for fun, this hand and board ate not good bluff candidates.

When you raise the turn, the only value you are repping 54s and A4s where the suit should match the T on the flop. If you flat 99 regularly instead of 3 betting, you can have that on occasion. But that's a better flop raise since your opponent can have a lot of gutshots with overs or QJ. Presumably you 3 bet TT pre.

By jamming river, you are trying to say you have a flush or boat, but how? Unless it's specifically TXdd, in which case you wouldn't raise turn. Maybe you have some Broadway diamond hands here sometimes. But to run that bluff you really want to have the Kd or even the Qd so your opponent can't have the combo draws.

All you are doing is blocking 99 with the 9 you have. You aren't blocking any flushes, and top pair remained top pair the whole time. No one is going to fold a T when the board pairs on the turn. IF you were going to bluff, calling turn to jam diamond rivers would make more sense, but again you'd need a blocker.
 
So after reading the comments there is definitely a lot I need to improve on. On this hand specifically I jammed because I had put him on a hand like what he had. I thought that nothing better than TPTK is just calling this turn they’re going to jam for max value against draws. So when he did that I cappped him at that and went super polarized with the jam so it would be a difficult call.

When I spoke with him afterwards he told me had he not had the 10 of diamonds he folds there. But that card blocked my only AT combo so he had a call. When he was tanking and thinking aloud I kinda realized that the line was bizarre especially considering that I’m known to bluff. I think a line more like call/call/fold or raise is better here.

Furthermore, I’d like to get some advice on learning how to see how my lines are perceived as well as how to breakdown the lines of others. The player told me that he’s gonna work through some spots with me to the lo since that’s how he’s crushing that game right now. I really just struggle to breakdown hands like that in the moment and then see where the story stops making sense. Now that it’s been discussed it seems like an easy call because you’re right I really told a bad story I just struggle to do that analysis in the moment.
 
Okay so I really want some feedback here because I think I played this spot correct and just got the wrong result. But I want some other opinions.

7 handed game 10¢/25¢ all players I have history with. I’m on BTN with the 50¢ straddle with Ks9h.

2 limps to CO who is a skilled player we’ve played together weekly for 3 years so he knows my play pretty well. He raises to $2.05
I call and everyone else folds
Flop (~$7) Tx4h9d
CO bets $2.05
I call
Turn (~$11) Tx4h9d4d
He bets $3.25
I raise to $12
He calls
River (~$35) 5d
He checks
I jam for $25.25
He tanks and tanks and tanks and calls with JcTd

Through the hand I had put him on top pair good kicker. So that’s why I was raising turn and jamming river to put pressure on that hand. I figured he’d jam turn with most nutted hands and call with top pair hands.

Also how in the fuck does he make that call?!?!?
What are you trying to tell him you have? An over pair would have 3 bet pre. a set? 99 is the only one that makes sense, unless you are trying to sell him on a 4. Your story doesnt add up to flush....would you raise him with a flush draw on the turn? Probably not.

Not sure why you would make this bluff with showdown value. Seems pretty ambitious.
 
Not sure why you would make this bluff with showdown value. Seems pretty ambitious.
I made the bluff because I didn’t think I had showdown value. I was very confident I was going to check back the worst hand so I felt that I had to bluff at it. Hindsight though shows it was a terrible play as I basically repped nothing. But yeah I didn’t think the 9 was good and thought he’d good to a jam with a single pair hand.
 
On this hand specifically I jammed because I had put him on a hand like what he had.
Isn’t that frustrating as hell. When you know what somebody has, you know they’re vulnerable, but you still can’t capitalize. (Insert poop emoji here)
 
Also, of note: in pretty much all small stakes games, your profitability will be directly related to how well you can get value from your opponents when you have a better hand then they do. Bluffing is fun and all, but it will not make that big of deal to your bottom line. That is, if your goal is to improve your win rate. Also of note, if you are straddling, you probably do not care about this to begin with.
 
Isn’t that frustrating as hell. When you know what somebody has, you know they’re vulnerable, but you still can’t capitalize. (Insert poop emoji here)
Yeah that’s exactly how I felt. I actually ordered an Uber afterwards even though it was 2 orbits in. But I ended up just typing this up, having a drink, and listening to some music while I took a break.
 
I made the bluff because I didn’t think I had showdown value. I was very confident I was going to check back the worst hand so I felt that I had to bluff at it. Hindsight though shows it was a terrible play as I basically repped nothing. But yeah I didn’t think the 9 was good and thought he’d good to a jam with a single pair hand.

Depending on how he would play hands you beat, this may be true. Sometimes he could have shown up with AK-AJ, 88, 77, KQs and the like. Would he bet those hands twice?

I will say that I don't hate the straddle defend pre since the raise is small for a live game with limpers folding and we have position. I call the flop bet, probably fold to the turn bet though.
 
Now that it’s been discussed it seems like an easy call because you’re right I really told a bad story I just struggle to do that analysis in the moment.
I agree it can be difficult to do in the moment. Do the homework away from the table and break down a bunch of hands. Eventually it becomes more intuitively while playing, I think.
 
Also, of note: in pretty much all small stakes games, your profitability will be directly related to how well you can get value from your opponents when you have a better hand then they do. Bluffing is fun and all, but it will not make that big of deal to your bottom line. That is, if your goal is to improve your win rate. Also of note, if you are straddling, you probably do not care about this to begin with.
I definitely want to improve win rate and I honestly straddle because I have an edge on most players so it works to my advantage since I get position the entire hand AND it plays bigger which can let you put opponents in unfomfy spots. I agree though that value extraction is the name of the game and knowing I get called with JTo in that spot is gonna affect my play in the future. With that knowledge I could go for THIN value there and still get called down. I’ve noticed a lot of the winning regs will bet all 3 streets for half pot or less and get called a lot so I’m going to adopt that as well to increase the profitability of my made hands.
 
Okay so I really want some feedback here because I think I played this spot correct and just got the wrong result. But I want some other opinions.

7 handed game 10¢/25¢ all players I have history with. I’m on BTN with the 50¢ straddle with Ks9h.

2 limps to CO who is a skilled player we’ve played together weekly for 3 years so he knows my play pretty well. He raises to $2.05
I call and everyone else folds
Flop (~$7) Tx4h9d
CO bets $2.05
I call
Turn (~$11) Tx4h9d4d
He bets $3.25
I raise to $12
He calls
River (~$35) 5d
He checks
I jam for $25.25
He tanks and tanks and tanks and calls with JcTd

Through the hand I had put him on top pair good kicker. So that’s why I was raising turn and jamming river to put pressure on that hand. I figured he’d jam turn with most nutted hands and call with top pair hands.

Also how in the fuck does he make that call?!?!?
1) this is a good way to play it IF you have a large pocket pair, you'd have gotten paid off.
2) you can't bluff a bad player, or sometimes people can't afford to be bluffed
3) it sounds like his SPR was less than 1 (aka he was pot committed :LOL: :laugh: )
 
Also, of note: in pretty much all small stakes games, your profitability will be directly related to how well you can get value from your opponents when you have a better hand then they do. Bluffing is fun and all, but it will not make that big of deal to your bottom line. That is, if your goal is to improve your win rate. Also of note, if you are straddling, you probably do not care about this to begin with.
So much this.

I've been playing in a weekly 1/3 game. I've got 32 hours in and I'm up over $2k. I've literally never run a big river bluff thus far. I've done some double barreling with mixed success. But the biggest thing I can point to that gets that extra $ is value betting thinner than everyone else, and being the only guy that basically never limps. They MIGHT eventually realize i'm under bluffing, but until then. It's easy, mostly risk free money.
 
The line makes sense, and I like turning pairs into bluffs -- But, I don't think that in a small stakes game that many players are calling a check raise on the turn and folding to a 2/3 pot river jam on that board. I think you need to check back river. You have a smidge of showdown value.
 
Okay so I really want some feedback here because I think I played this spot correct and just got the wrong result. But I want some other opinions.

7 handed game 10¢/25¢ all players I have history with. I’m on BTN with the 50¢ straddle with Ks9h.

2 limps to CO who is a skilled player we’ve played together weekly for 3 years so he knows my play pretty well. He raises to $2.05
I call and everyone else folds
Flop (~$7) Tx4h9d
CO bets $2.05
I call
Turn (~$11) Tx4h9d4d
He bets $3.25
I raise to $12
He calls
River (~$35) 5d
He checks
I jam for $25.25
He tanks and tanks and tanks and calls with JcTd

Through the hand I had put him on top pair good kicker. So that’s why I was raising turn and jamming river to put pressure on that hand. I figured he’d jam turn with most nutted hands and call with top pair hands.

Also how in the fuck does he make that call?!?!?
I mean in a vacuum, I think your story is very strong. Two issues: One, I think your sizing could have been different on turn check raise, allowing a bigger bet on river. For instance, if you raise to $9.50, pot is $30, and River is $30. tougher call imo. Two, you have played with this guy a lot. Is he a station in general? Do you bluff too frequently? Tis is different than bluffing a stranger, a lot more dynamics involved.
 
I concur that the jam seems weak. If you had a nutted hand, a smaller value bet would seem more likely. And he was still getting over 3:1 for his call on your all in. So a light call seems reasonable for him too. I dont think hes getting off his hand on the turn if you jam either. But poker is so easy in hindsight. So there is that.
 

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