Is this an easy fold? (1 Viewer)

naked_eskimo

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Hand #11358-61 - 2020-05-12 23:38:06
Game: NL Hold'em (1 - 2000) - Blinds 0.50/1
Site: Brantford Poker
Table: Table#1 NLHE .50/$1
Seat 1: VILLAIN (248.25)
Seat 3: GDJI (144.50)
Seat 5: ANOG77 (131)
Seat 6: HERO (404.75)
Seat 8: jpodge (210)
Seat 9: ChefWill (0) - sitting out
Seat 10: Gilly (241.50)
ANOG77 has the dealer button
HERO posts small blind 0.50
jpodge posts big blind 1
** Hole Cards ** [6 players]
Gilly raises to 4
VILLAIN calls 4
GDJI folds
ANOG77 folds
HERO calls 3.50
jpodge folds
** Flop ** [:jc::9s::qh:]
HERO bets 6.50
Gilly calls 6.50
VILLAIN raises to 17
HERO calls 10.50
Gilly calls 10.50
** Turn ** [:5h:]
HERO checks
Gilly bets 21.25
VILLAIN calls 21.25
HERO calls 21.25
** River ** [:qc:]
HERO bets 42.50
Gilly folds
VILLAIN raises to 144
HERO calls 101.50
** Pot Show Down ** [:jc::9s::qh::5h::qc:]
VILLAIN shows [:qs::js:] (a Full House, Queens full of Jacks)
HERO shows [:9d::9c:] (a Full House, Nines full of Queens)
VILLAIN wins Pot (415.75) with a Full House
Rake (0) Pot (415.75) Players (VILLAIN: 186.25, GDJI: 0, ANOG77: 0, HERO: 186.25, jpodge: 1, Gilly: 42.25)

A hand from my session last night on my poker mavens site. Short version: Dealt 99 in SB, call a 4x preflop raise, flop is J9Qr, I bet out, get raised and call. I'm already in cautious mode as KT would have got there already. Turn is a brick, I check call a bet, river pairs the board with a second Q. I bet out (big mistake I think in hindsight), then I end up calling his large river raise.

Is this an easy fold for most? I hate paying off on the river like this. It's a big leak in my game that I need to get better at plugging. I should have been able to reason out that I don't think he shows up here with anything that I can beat, maybe the flopped straight with KT, but probably not that likely.
 
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Teach42

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Depends on the player. There are plenty of people that will bet hard on an AQ or KQ there. Top pair with the straight draw. Lots of hands villain could have had.

Honestly, that's one I would have had a hard time getting away from too. Just a bad beat IMHO. Most of the time you're winning that showdown.
 

naked_eskimo

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I'm probably one of the tightest at my table. I tend to only lose large pots when I get coolered, but almost every time I face a large river raise, I'm beat. People just don't bluff big against me like that (especially on the river), unless I got outdrawn. I don't like paying off in those situations, but I don't want to fold incorrectly either. I was really on the fence with this one and almost folded because in my head QJ made a lot of sense from the flop all the way to the river. I think in this spot, this player's NAR (nuts to air ratio) greatly favors nuts.
 

Eriks

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I don’t think he can show up with a straight here at all considering he only called the bet on the turn. If he could be doing this with just trip Qs I guess it’s ok. It does sure look a lot like QJ/Q9 although Q9s is not possible. Tough one for sure
 

naked_eskimo

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I should have played more aggressively, I agree. I get too results oriented and see monsters under the bed too much. I was out of position and facing aggression on a not dry board. I don't know if I could have got him off two pair. Not a lot of folding top two happens in this game.
 

Senzrock

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River river is a clear fold (easier said than done obviously), but I actually think the main errors in the hand have to do with your leads on both the flop + river. By the river, this is a *clear* check/call spot vs. two villains that have both shown strength, one of which has shown a lot of strength.

Lead-calling on this river is very bad. Check-calling is fine, even though you are often beat. This is a good illustration of a spot where your initial errors (leading out in spots where you should be checking "in flow" to the aggressor, then get compounded and lead you to losing more than necessary. Obviously a cooler either way, but you should study why you are leading the flop/river here and how you can tighten up those kinds of leaks.

Interesting hand!
 

upNdown

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Waiting for the pros to show up, but villain's never getting to the river that cheap if I have a set. He'd be risking his entire stack long before he ever filled up.
It’s a tough one. I’d want to 3-bet the flop, but on that connected board, out of position in a multi-way pot?
 

naked_eskimo

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I agree leading out on the river was a clear mistake. Table dynamics would dictate that I should not lead the flop either and should have checked to the preflop aggressor, but I hate when it gets checked around in a spot like that and another broadway card comes on the turn.
 

Senzrock

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I don't mind the lead on the flop as much as the river, agreed. You just need a plan for what to do if raised on the flop because it's a nasty spot. You are basically only getting raised for value by 1 hand (QJ) that you are beating - maybe by KK/AA depending on how good the initial raiser is, but you are behind every combo of KTs/offsuit and obviously sets of JJ/QQ. If you do end up leading flop (again, I don't mind mixing up your leads here with some strong hands like sets), you *have to play conservatively the rest of the way* once you get raised and action continues on later streets. Your hand is still very strong, but this is 3-way not heads up, you are out of position, and you don't have close to the nuts.
 

naked_eskimo

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Thank you everyone for the analysis. This is very helpful. It was clear to me that I erred on the river, but digging deeper and sniffing out other potential errors or alternate lines is very helpful.

I did pivot to check call conservative play on the turn, and then the wheels came off the cart on the river. I didn't know if I was value betting or bluffing. If I don't know exactly why I am betting, I probably should not bet.
 

BGinGA

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It’s a tough one. I’d want to 3-bet the flop, but on that connected board, out of position in a multi-way pot?
As played, I'm 3-bet bombing that flop, although I'd likely have checked to the aggressor and check-raised.

And no way am I check-calling the turn. Played aggressively in the flop, I'm probably heads-up by that point and draws, two-pair, overpairs, and TPTK are going to pay to see a fifth card.

Results might end up the same, but with the difference being that my $$ went in good as the big favorite, vs calling off when I'm beat.
 

Senzrock

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If I don't know exactly why I am betting, I probably should not bet.

This is the crux of the issue (and the fact that most cash game players don't know the answer to this question in the vast majority of spots = why they are so profitable :)
 

Senzrock

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As played, I'm 3-bet bombing that flop, although I'd likely have checked to the aggressor and check-raised.

And no way am I check-calling the turn. Played aggressively in the flop, I'm probably heads-up by that point and draws, two-pair, overpairs, and TPTK are going to pay to see a fifth card.

Results might end up the same, but with the difference being that my $$ went in good as the big favorite, vs calling off when I'm beat.

I don't mind piling flop, but you are getting 250 bb's in here with bottom set 3-handed. Not terrible by any means, a set is obviously incredibly strong, but I think there are more profitable lines.
 

naked_eskimo

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They are Copags, but not sure which ones, exactly.

copag.JPG
 

Legend5555

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This board should hit a preflop raising range from UTG a lot. So this should be a check raise from you. Followed by bet turn, bet river. If you c/r then get 3 bet on flop, you can go into check call mode. As played this is a river fold to the raise. People basically never show up with worse than a full house here as the preflop raiser.

And the current theory is that you should basically never lead into the preflop raiser. It's too hard to balance a leading range. And more importantly, playing from out of position is awful. So you sort of want to keep pots small, so a check back by the raiser isn't the end of the world. This isn't too say you don't want to pile money in with good hands, but think of all the misses and medium strength hands you could also have here and how you would play them. You would check on the flop. So you should check with your big hands too.
 

Mike Wells

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I don't hate the way you played this. Agree that a check / call is probably better on the river, given the action. Depends on players, but I'm definitely calling a lot of the time there.
Full disclosure: 99 is actually my favorite hand (The great one!)...and I tend to play them more like AA, so I'm probably not in that exact spot very often.
 

upNdown

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I don't think I've ever folded a two card boat in holdem, that could only be beaten by another two card boat.
I'd like to say I have.
 

joeyshin

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Can’t find the video but there’s a hand with Tuan Lee vs Lederer and both have boats. Tuan tanks and calls and loses. Everyone at the table starts talking about how they could see a fold.
Gus Hansen: 'I love it when the pro's discuss folding full houses', I love it. I mean with the limp in the 6 handed pot means he has to have KJ, KQ... yeah that was a BAD call. I mean what the ****!'
 

naked_eskimo

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I don't hate the way you played this. Agree that a check / call is probably better on the river, given the action. Depends on players, but I'm definitely calling a lot of the time there.
Full disclosure: 99 is actually my favorite hand (The great one!)...and I tend to play them more like AA, so I'm probably not in that exact spot very often.
Ah, the "great one". I'm actually born and raised in Brantford, Ontario. Very familiar with the Gretzky name.
 

Eriks

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Can’t find the video but there’s a hand with Tuan Lee vs Lederer and both have boats. Tuan tanks and calls and loses. Everyone at the table starts talking about how they could see a fold.
Gus Hansen: 'I love it when the pro's discuss folding full houses', I love it. I mean with the limp in the 6 handed pot means he has to have KJ, KQ... yeah that was a BAD call. I mean what the ****!'

I mostly agree, although Howard specifically might be a candidate to hero fold against
 
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