In need of tactical feedback (2 Viewers)

[JackDeRke]

Hey Jack here in need of some advice and second thoughts on a hand.

Game is a live 1/2 with effective Stacks of about 100BB 9 handed
In case of this hand exactly 101BB

Player one opens UTG+1 to 20 after a limp from UTG.

Usual raise size on this specific table is 15-18 depending on the player but UTG+1 has been extremely tight up till now even showing folding a flopped bottom set on 478 after 4 other players had shown extreme action with 2 all in.

Player two in UTG+3 now raises to 50 after a fold from +2.

Probably the second tightest player on the table, older gentleman with pretty much no intention to bluff in and situation not usually going for thin value or risky plays.

All Folds, Player one makes the call after about 20 sec tank.

Flop is Q43 all diamonds.
P1 checks. P2 immediately bets 25. P1 calls after about 30sec tank and then rechecking his cards.

Turn 6 of diamonds.
P1 bets 42 referencing that he's a physicists and laughing out loud.
P2 calls pretty quickly.

River is 7 of clubs.
P1 jams for 85 and now stares right down on the field. Kinda like a Phil Helmuth crouch.
P2 starts to tank.
After about 2 minutes he goes ahead and reveals his cards the two black kings. But doesn't fold.
Keeps thinking out loudly for a few more minutes.
After about a 6 minute tank total he says you deserve to be payed on this one. I'm just to pot committed, calling for effectively all his stack.
P1 reveals Pocket Jack's in black. Kings win the for this game pretty huge pot.

Now I want to reveal, that I was P1 and at the time I was pretty sure that my opponent had exactly Kings without a diamond, so the turn and river bets were clear cut bluffs.
So I'd now like to ask what your opinion on the play. Do you like the play or is it just wrong to start bluffing Jack's on that turn card.
Mathematically is P2 actually pot committed.

Postgame talk revealed he would have definitely folded, if I check jamed the turn, but unfortunately that wasn't the case and I think it would have been a worse play since I couldn't be sure of my opponent not having a diamond in his hand.

I hope to have a fun little debate on this and happy chip hunting everyone.
Greetings Jack

 

[moose]

42 into a pot of 150 on turn is way too small. Probably just jam right there.

 

[boltonguy]

42 into a pot of 150 on turn is way too small. Probably just jam right there.

I was doing the same math on my calculator and typing the same post when you posted yours. Pot was 151.
The 42 is the wrong bet size for a bluff on this street IMHO. Need to got pot, overbet pot or jam turn.

 

[JackDeRke]

I was thinking about that, but honestly with that particular kind of player I know he's capable of making a big call so him telling me afterwards doesn't mean it would have actually worked.
If I actually had a diamond and wanted to make sure he doesn't have one which at that point on the turn I wasn't, jamming now becomes really risky whereas donking turn to jam river gives me the the opportunity to kind of make sure he doesn't have a diamond.

 

[Legend5555]

This is the problem when people are opening to 7-10x when stacks aren't that deep. Pots get so bloated and fold equity is basically gone. You don't tend to win money by trying to bluff people off overpairs in low stakes live games.

Additionally, if you are going to bluff this, you should jam the turn when you have a pot sized bet left. The two streets of modest betting have less fold equity. It's also just not a great bluff because you will have little to no equity against hands that call you. You don't often want to be bluffing when you are likely drawing dead to hands that call you.

But I think the biggest problem is pre-flop. An older tight guy that you say doesn't bluff 3 bets to a quarter of your stack against your early position open. Is he ever 3 betting you with TT? Would he even 3 bet AK? Let's be generous and say he 3 bets AQ, AK, and TT+. That's 24 combos of AQ and AK that you are flipping against. 6 combos of TT you are crushing. And 18 combos of hands that have you crushed. You are an underdog to this range. You can honestly just fold to this raise since the pot will be too bloated for to get him off his best hands here. Your other option is just to jam all in pre of you think he can fold AK, TT-QQ.

Calling is the worst option. If you think you are behind to an overpair, then you aren't getting the right price to try and flop a set. What are you going to do when the flop comes with an A, K, or Q? You check, he bets a real amount instead of just quarter pot, then you are guessing with what essentially is your entire stack on the line. Hell, even the quarter pot bet puts your whole stack on the line.

When preflop opens are so large relative to your stack, then you should be looking for spots to play for stacks as early in the hand as possible. This hand IMO was a clear shove or fold preflop.

 

[ChaosRock]

Agree with Legend's pre flop comments.

As far as shoving the turn being better, I'm not quite sure about that. Is Hero shoving the turn with the nuts? Likely not. So Hero would have different plays between nuts and bluffs, not a good thing. So if, and that is a big if, Hero decided to bluff, I don't mind the line necessarily. What I do mind though is that Hero does not have a large enough stack to make that play.

Back to agreeing that black JJs is not a great choice here for bluffing on a 3-bet pot against a tight players. Short stack, Hero will have less fold equity ,not to mention Villain has a lot of A or K of dimond in pairs or AK.

 

[JackDeRke]

I like that analysis too. Against this type of player I think I should have folded pre as he'd always shown a tendency to flat with non nutted hands pre, so hands like AK AQ suited and off would usually fall into his calling range as there just isn't a lot of 3betting going on. That being said it probably still is true that it would be best to jam, if I would want to continue and maybe running it twice could have saved me a penny, but I guess it's to late for that.
Thanks for the honest opinions.

 

[Legend5555]

Agree with Legend's pre flop comments.

As far as shoving the turn being better, I'm not quite sure about that. Is Hero shoving the turn with the nuts? Likely not. So Hero would have different plays between nuts and bluffs, not a good thing. So if, and that is a big if, Hero decided to bluff, I don't mind the line necessarily. What I do mind though is that Hero does not have a large enough stack to make that play.

Back to agreeing that black JJs is not a great choice here for bluffing on a 3-bet pot against a tight players. Short stack, Hero will have less fold equity ,not to mention Villain has a lot of A or K of dimond in pairs or AK.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I don't think the bluff on the turn is good either. But from an exploitive POV against that type of player, I think it's the line that might get the most folds given the specific stack size at play. It's terrible from a GTO POV.