Ignition 25NL Zone: Do you call the all in or fold pre (1 Viewer)

boltonguy

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Hero has AKo in the CO. UTG RFI, HJ overcalls, Hero 3! to 5x.

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UTG folds and HJ jams. I used to call here but it's a flip and I'm a slight dog against any PP all the way down to 22. Lately I'm not interested in flipping so I folded.
I dont put him on AA, KK, QQ but JJ- is reasonable.
Do you fold or call here and why?

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I'm not folding here with 16bb out there already. That more than makes up for the flip. If villain can ever have AQ, then you are a favorite against his range. If he doesn't, you are 46%. You have to call 87.5 and you pot equity is 93.8.

Now if he ever has KK or AA, it's a fold.
 
Well if I new his cards it would be easy! Snapped off AQs with AKo yesterday and we saw A on flop Q on river. :(
 
Well if I new his cards it would be easy! Snapped off AQs with AKo yesterday and we saw A on flop Q on river. :(
I'm just saying that if you think his range is likely just AK and pairs under KK, then you still have the right price to call. You're losing 6bb if you fold.
 
Well if I put that in pokercruncher AKo vs AK, QQ- I get AKo as a dog 45.5 to 54.5. Could you help me understand the math on this being a call? Thanks
 

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I treat AK off-suit in the same way as 67 off-suit. It's a generally ridiculous hand.
If suited, I might raise, but when the flop comes and it's not their suit it's hard to remember they 're trash.
 
Back jam is ugly. RNG your decision here rather than a blanket fold every time. Is a reason why you chose to 5x their open? Why not raise to 3.5-4x? It feels like HJ is reacting to your raise as a potential steal/squeeze and is potentially requeezing. Are you 5x folding with other hands?are you also folding those to jams?
 
Well if I put that in pokercruncher AKo vs AK, QQ- I get AKo as a dog 45.5 to 54.5. Could you help me understand the math on this being a call? Thanks
Pot is 100 + 2.52 + 1 + .4 + 12.48 = 116.4

You need to call 87.52. if you do, the pot will be 203.92.

203.92 * .455 = 92.78

92.78 > 87.52.

So it's a call.
 
Pot is 100 + 2.52 + 1 + .4 + 12.48 = 116.4

You need to call 87.52. if you do, the pot will be 203.92.

203.92 * .455 = 92.78

92.78 > 87.52.

So it's a call.
This is why you rarely see people fold AK to an all in pre for 100bb or less. Once you've committed a 3bet, you really just can't fold AK if they can't have KK or AA very often in terms of the math.
 
As a matter of fact, even if they can have AA and KK, as long as they can have AQ, then it's still a call. This is assuming though that they have all combos of all these hands.

Your break even point is at 43%.

And just to be clear (not that I think you are thinking about it this way, but just in case):

You are not risking 100 to win the 203.92, just the 87.52. You can't count the money you have already committed to the pot, the 12.48. If you count your full 100, then yes, you come out behind. But you come out even further behind than that by folding. Folding = stack of 87.52, calling = stack of 92.78 (on average). Again assuming assumptions about ranges are correct.
 
Pot is 100 + 2.52 + 1 + .4 + 12.48 = 116.4

You need to call 87.52. if you do, the pot will be 203.92.

203.92 * .455 = 92.78

92.78 > 87.52.

So it's a call.
Ok so i think you are comparing my equity in the pot after I call (203.92 BB x 0.455) to the size of the call, and since the end-state equity is higher than the call it should be profitable. Interesting approach and it makes sense. Thank you for explaining.
 
Pot is 100 + 2.52 + 1 + .4 + 12.48 = 116.4

You need to call 87.52. if you do, the pot will be 203.92.

203.92 * .455 = 92.78

92.78 > 87.52.

So it's a call.

Ok so i think you are comparing my equity in the pot after I call (203.92 BB x 0.455) to the size of the call, and since the end-state equity is higher than the call it should be profitable. Interesting approach and it makes sense. Thank you for explaining.
Maybe I'm wrong here, but my understanding of Pot Odds is that you compare the value of the pot BEFORE your call to the amount of the call. Using the post-call pot size is (I believe) incorrect.

If there is $5 in the pot and it costs $1 to call, then odds are 5:1, not 6:1
 
It's the exact same by pot odds. Pot odds and equity are the same. Pot odds don't add in the extra 1 in the denominator, so you don't count your call. But overall equity is everything.

Even if not, the math I laid out above is pretty clear. A fold leaves us with 87.5, a call gives us 92.8.
 
It's the exact same by pot odds. Pot odds and equity are the same. Pot odds don't add in the extra 1 in the denominator, so you don't count your call. But overall equity is everything.

Even if not, the math I laid out above is pretty clear. A fold leaves us with 87.5, a call gives us 92.8.
OK, I see. You were talking about overall equity in the final pot, in which case your numbers add up.

I was coming at it from the viewpoint of calculating pot odds vs. odds of hitting your outs, which is something different.
 
There’s probably a clear cut, mathematical answer here but my opinion as a recreational player is to fold if you feel like you are playing against a soft field and sometimes call if you’re at a tougher table where you may be at a disadvantage.

It’s funny to see how AK has sort of changed with the times. Back during the poker boom, AK was almost seen as a marginal hand especially when offsuit but now I see a lot of the newer math oriented guys snap call with AK in a myriad of situations.
 
One more really important thing. This all assumes no rake. Rake in micros is very high. Usually 5% max $3. So in this spot, we could be paying like $2.50, which is 10bb and could offset our profit.
 
There’s probably a clear cut, mathematical answer here but my opinion as a recreational player is to fold if you feel like you are playing against a soft field and sometimes call if you’re at a tougher table where you may be at a disadvantage.

It’s funny to see how AK has sort of changed with the times. Back during the poker boom, AK was almost seen as a marginal hand especially when offsuit but now I see a lot of the newer math oriented guys snap call with AK in a myriad of situations.
Back in the day people's ranges for getting it in pre for were tighter because people didn't 3bet nearly as much as they do now. With squeezing and 3betting becoming more common, it's harder to justify folding AK pre for 100bb.
 
Back in the day people's ranges for getting it in pre for were tighter because people didn't 3bet nearly as much as they do now. With squeezing and 3betting becoming more common, it's harder to justify folding AK pre for 100bb.
Yeah for sure. I also feel like today’s players do a better job of managing “decision fatigue.” They are able to recognize and accept when certain spots are automatic without using up too much brain power leaving them more mental energy to crunch the numbers on the really difficult spots.

When I watch older poker footage, it’s interesting to see how some of the pros would use a lot of mental effort trying to get a read on their opponents with hands like AK whether it was for 10bb’s or 100bb’s. It would look cool when they were right but it can get exhausting when you are making those type of decisions dozens of times per hour.
 
Yeah for sure. I also feel like today’s players do a better job of managing “decision fatigue.” They are able to recognize and accept when certain spots are automatic without using up too much brain power leaving them more mental energy to crunch the numbers on the really difficult spots.

When I watch older poker footage, it’s interesting to see how some of the pros would use a lot of mental effort trying to get a read on their opponents with hands like AK whether it was for 10bb’s or 100bb’s. It would look cool when they were right but it can get exhausting when you are making those type of decisions dozens of times per hour.
Yeah, one been rewatching a lot of old (2011 and earlier) WSOP main events, and the amount of decisions people waste time on that seem pretty automatic is amazing. I started right before the boom in 2003 when I started watching the 1st session if the WPT, which was before Moneymaker. So I've been through all this.
 

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