Hustler Casino Live: Garrett's KK Fold v Andy's AA (1 Viewer)

[CrazyEddie]

I'm curious about this hand with Garrett and Andy on yesterday's Hustler Casino Live. The hand starts at 3:23:48

In short: Andy HJ with AA, Garrett BTN with KK. UTG+1 raises preflop, Andy 3-bets, Garrett 4-bets, Andy calls; heads-up. Andy check-raises on a dry flop. Andy check-raises again on the turn all-in.

Garrett tanks, and after five minutes he folds. Almost nobody in the chat thought he would, or even could, fold. DGAF pointed out almost anyone in his shoes would have called in a heartbeat. But Garrett found a fold and saved himself $35,000.

I'd love to hear y'all's analysis of what was happening here, what Andy and Garrett were probably thinking, and what led Garrett to finally fold after changing his mind twice while tanking.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Garrett knew he should call, but he's a damned monster, figured it out, and made the fold.

That is my expert opinion.

 

[davislane]

Id hazard a guess that a lot of their history together helped with this decision. Ultimately he decided that the bluffs / hands that he beat that would take that line were small and the line taken by Andy is heavily weighted towards the hands that would take the same line that had him beat, like A5s, AA & 99.

 

[Zajac]

I thought it was tough to put Andy on AA because he didn’t 5 bet….nice play by both

 

[davislane]

I thought it was tough to put Andy on AA because he didn’t 5 bet….nice play by both

Given the way these "pros" play they dont use a 5bet very often. Its generally used more when they are very deep or short. Stack sizes are very important so I suspect Andy opted not to put any more money in pre as if he did there wouldnt leave much room for post flop play to try to extract maximum value from Garret. Obviously if he knew Garrett was as strong as he was he would have shipped it, but because Garrett has the ability to 4bet with weak hands he was trying to keep those hands in with the view of letting a strong player like Garrett continue to stab at the pot in position.

 

[AnteAndy]

Those two have a lot of history together. He probably would only do this against Andy in this specific situation.

 

[HaRDHouSeiNC]

99 made so much sense after two check raises

you can only beat QQ there

if andy would have pulled a Garrett and made a huge over bet all in PRE he might have got called down

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

You can’t beat queens because Andy isn’t bad enough to go all jn with queens. it’s horrible to shove here with queens. Just lighting money on fire.

this isn’t a spectacular fold as much as it is just a bad line by Andy. Garret just doesn’t bet that often on the turn given previous action - he’s checking back a lot of overpairs. Sometimes he will bet the overpairs but often not, and especially not with the lower offer pairs and/or 9x. Kings is probably an optimal call (I guess maybe Queens could be too though I think it’s a stretch) but either way it’s borderline which is why the shove with aces is quite bad. You don’t want to shove for value with aces when you’re getting called primarily by kings, aces, 99 and some wonky 5x.


Putting aside whether its an optimal call though, for those borderline bluff catchers (like kings and queens) to be worth calling requires that Andy finds bluffs here which I don’t think he does nearly often enough. 76s once in a blue moon and that’s it. He’s VERY heavily imbalanced towards value if he’s including aces in his value shove range.

the whole hand is really bad by Andy - this is not a spot to not have a 5bet range.

 

[SpaceMonkey420]

Aces knew he had queens or kings. Kings eventually knew only Aces or better would bet that much. Great spot to notch. Think he got a little greedy/just my opinion.

 

[kmccormick100]

It’s a fantastic fold, especially against Andy who’s played hundreds of hours with Garrett, but it makes sense if you break it down. Flatting a 4b with AA OoP is unorthodox
For sure, but against somebody like Garrett, you’ve gotta mix it up sometimes. A double check raise is so uncommon, and is almost never a bluff though, I think it’s suicide to try and bluff Garrett off QQ or KK in that spot, and on that board there aren’t any logical semi bluffs that have much equity.
It basically comes down to the ratio of hands Andy is doing this with that have Garrett beat that would be played this way: two combos of 99, A5ss, A5dd, occasionally unorthodox six combos of AA. He chops with one combo of KK and pretty much only beats 6 combos of QQ which he’s probably only doing this with 1/3 of the time (2 combos) and mayyyybe 67s that picks up a double gutter on the turn let’s give him 3 combos of that out of 6. So 10 value combos he’s losing to vs 1 chop and 5 bluff combos needs about 2:1 to make it profitable. $30k to win $65k is just about 2:1, it’s really close, but he obviously made the logical if ridiculous fold.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

“For sure, but against somebody like Garrett, you’ve gotta mix it up sometimes”

by 4betting as a bluff occasionally in addition to when you have aces. if you think he’s folding too much then bluff more. There are spots to flat aces and this isn’t one of them absent of some very specific and unusual read.

“He chops with one combo of KK and pretty much only beats 6 combos of QQ which he’s probably only doing this with 1/3 of the time (2 combos)”

At most kings is shoving 1/3rd of the time. Queens is basically never. There’s a huge difference between each pair - andy isn’t a rank amateur.

“mayyyybe 67s that picks up a double gutter on the turn let’s give him 3 combos of that out of 6”

You can’t compare combos without discounting for how often he takes the line. he folds 76 pre way more often than 99. He also gets here with hands like 65s and 54s if he can have 76s.

it’s closer to 10 value for every bluff than 2:1 if he’s prone to doing this with aces. Not that he should
Do this with aces, but apparently it’s in his playbook.

 

[navels]

Here's another hand where G-Man folds an underful to Andy:

 

[navels]

And a similar spot with Berkey getting coolered by Garrett which plays out more as you'd expect:

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

Here's another hand where G-Man folds an underful to Andy:

this one is mostly crazy because of how little he had left behind.

again it's an optimal call but it's not THAT far off from being a fold. if he had AT and folded, one pip below, or AQ - i dont think too many would bat an eye. JJ might actually be a worse hand to call with since it heavily blocks hands like JT which are the most likely bluffs for andy to have.

the real insanity is this hand:

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-ne...in-makes-insane-fold-in-high-stakes-cash-game

it just doesn't make sense on any level.

 

[davislane]

this one is mostly crazy because of how little he had left behind.

again it's an optimal call but it's not THAT far off from being a fold. if he had AT and folded, one pip below, or AQ - i dont think too many would bat an eye. JJ might actually be a worse hand to call with since it heavily blocks hands like JT which are the most likely bluffs for andy to have.

the real insanity is this hand:

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-ne...in-makes-insane-fold-in-high-stakes-cash-game

it just doesn't make sense on any level.

3 "insane" folds from the same player against the same player. Most likely he knows something we don't. Most people would be going broke in all 3 spots but not Garrett. Forget everything you know about poker. Get on your knees and worship your new poker god GMAN!

 

[CrazyEddie]

obvious psychic powers at work here

 

[trigs]

These were all on streams, correct? Maybe he's playing crotch theory poker.

 

[Legend5555]

So finally watched through this.

Andy basically has no 5 bets here this deep against a strong player that is IP. Garrett is going to fold the majority of his range to a 5 bet, and Andy is blocking a huge amount of Garrett's 4 bet bluff range. Also, by calling with AA, Andy's range isn't that capped and makes it harder to play against as Garrett.

Because the board is so dry, Andy's only real bluff here is 67s (c, d, h). Only 3 combos. And how often would he still do that without picking up the flush draw? Andy can have 99, AA, and A5ss. That's 10 combos. He wouldn't play QQ like this. Andy may even be able to have 56s given the stack depth and because it's a streamed game (Andy has about 20x the raise size from Garrett). People play a bit looser on steam. Though I think there is less of that hand if he even does play it in this spot.

Andy's double check raise only makes sense if he thinks Garrett won't fold KK. Andy is clearly targeting specifically KK. If Andy just bets turn again, I think he gets more value. Garrett's cold 4 bet range can have some bluffs for sure, but it's generally going to be very value oriented.

I like Garrett's turn bet as he can get some value from an occasional over ambitious QQ and the 67 bluff.

 

[Anthony Martino]

#GarretIsConfirmedCuban

 

[AnteAndy]

Loved the story on Gal selling his WSOP bracelet to a fan.