How profitable can 1/2 and 1/3 games be? (1 Viewer)

Perthmike

Perthmike

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I'm wondering how many people on here play regular cash games at casinos and track profits/losses.

I've put in about 14 hours so far over the last couple of weeks and am tracking at about $28 per hour profit.

I feel like I've had a pretty poor run of cards in that time and have had to sit and wait for long periods, playing tight aggressive. My gut tells me I could potentially earn towards $40 an hour.

What are other people's experiences? Am I being unrealistic?
 
In a raked casino game your long term expected hourly rate is going to trend closer to 10bb per hour at the top end if you are a solid player.

That is a very small sample size for sure.

Wild home games with much deeper stacks and no rake, then that win rate is possible.
 
Yeah I had heard something similar when I searched online. There seem to be enough morons and drunks in the evenings at the table, that I thought more may be possible. It just feels like a beatable game.

The rakes are high, 10% capped at $15, which is an issue. I'm sitting at just under 10bb an hour right now.

I've been taking notes on regular players and trying to identify any of my mistakes, which may help. I guess I need to keep grinding away and check again when I've logged over 100 hours for a better to see what the outcome is.
 
Your win rate will be higher during the weekend nights when the drinks are flowing for sure. If that is the only time you play you can maintain a high win rate. The problem becomes if you want to start playing full time you need to play other days and other times of the day as well to get the hours in. During those times your win rate will suffer as the other players will play better than the drunk party goers.

$15 rake!!!! Holy shit that is outrageous. Is this an actual casino or some underground game?
 
Its a casino. The only one in my state actually, but it's a very nice complex. Those rakes are standard across Australia. Some of the pub games have 10% capped at $25. I'm not aware of any games with lower unfortunately.

I'm going to Sydney next week and the games there are 10% capped at $10. They charge $5 per player per hour for playing. Seems even more of a dick move to me.

I have a job that I enjoy and pays more than I am good enough at poker to earn. My aim is really to just play 5-10 hours or so a week on the side so I can build a bankroll. It would be nice if down the track I could work 4 days a week and play some extra poker, but mostly so I can build a bankroll and occasionally withdraw so that I can buy more chips.
 
Perthmike said:
I'm wondering how many people on here play regular cash games at casinos and track profits/losses.

I've put in about 14 hours so far over the last couple of weeks and am tracking at about $28 per hour profit.

I feel like I've had a pretty poor run of cards in that time and have had to sit and wait for long periods, playing tight aggressive. My gut tells me I could potentially earn towards $40 an hour.

What are other people's experiences? Am I being unrealistic?
Click to expand...

People making $40/HR at 1/2 NLHE is like me eating 6 lbs of baked beans and shitting myself into lunar orbit.

1/2 sucks. Robbing banks way more +EV.
 
In Washington State we have some of the lowest rakes in the country and I don't see how many people at 1-3 could have a sustainable win rate like that. I know nothing about your play or the people you play with but I know what a max $6 rake will do to a 1-3 table, I couldn't imagine 10% up to $15. That's the price you pay for living in a cool place like Australia with all those hot women I guess. ;)
 
bergs said:
People making $40/HR at 1/2 NLHE is like me eating 6 lbs of baked beans and shitting myself into lunar orbit.

1/2 sucks. Robbing banks way more +EV.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the amusing input. I figured I'd ask for peoples experience since my 14 hours experience isn't a large enough sample size to trust.

Although if I do manage to successfully shit myself into lunar orbit, I'll be sure to let you know.

Australia is cool, but prob not worth the $15 rake id say. Took $110 off a guy the other day in one hand, who was surprised that his top pair with 2 kicker didn't hold up. Other people's stupidity here is more the reason I have some hope, rather than my own brilliance.

I'll be happy with any profit though really since it allows me to keep playing without my partner telling me to stop.
 
A $15/10% rake borders on unbeatable. I'd be shocked if your rate settles in higher than $10/hr. By the end of the day, the house is going to have over half of all the money put in play. Tough to be a winning under those conditions.

Find a home game and/or start one yourself. It is work, but well worth it. -=- DrStrange
 
You'll need roughly 2,000 hours (a years worth of full time live play) is my understanding, to have a decent grasp on your sustainable winrate in a specific game.

What happens often is people take a small sample result, typically from the most profitable times to play (i.e. Friday and Saturday evenings) and too easily assume the game is super easy and they can just make that money on the regular.

The other days of the week you'll need to play will be less profitable, dragging down your hourly. You also have to factor in the player pool, availability of games, rake and jackpot, dealer tips, food and drinks, etc.

Rake sounds ridiculous in your neck of the woods. Here in the Tampa FL area the rake is max $5 plus $2 jackpot drop which I think really sucks, can't imagine paying double that.

You also have to take into account the max buyin and average stack size in games. In my area the 1/3 games are up to $500 while the 2/5 tables are up to 1K. I know a lot of other areas the 2/5 games max at 500. But even if the max buyin is 1K, if the majority of players are buying in for $300-500 then the 1K and deeper stacked play (and potential for greater earn rate) isn't there.
 
DrStrange said:
A $15/10% rake borders on unbeatable. I'd be shocked if your rate settles in higher than $10/hr. By the end of the day, the house is going to have over half of all the money put in play. Tough to be a winning under those conditions.

Find a home game and/or start one yourself. It is work, but well worth it. -=- DrStrange
Click to expand...

I do run a home game once a month and I agree it is more fun.
 
Anthony Martino said:
You also have to take into account the max buyin and average stack size in games. In my area the 1/3 games are up to $500 while the 2/5 tables are up to 1K. I know a lot of other areas the 2/5 games max at 500. But even if the max buyin is 1K, if the majority of players are buying in for $300-500 then the 1K and deeper stacked play (and potential for greater earn rate) isn't there.
Click to expand...



The 1-3 at Tulalip has a max buy in of $200. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO::ROFL: :ROFLMAO::ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
 
Definitely agree on the sample size, which is why I was hoping for some advice. Didn't want to get carried away with my moderate success so far.

$200 max buyins on these 1/3 tables as well. Lots of pre-flop bets though in the range of $15-$25 and people seem to bust out a lot, so there is plenty of new cash on the tables.

Guy on my table last week cashed out for about $850 playing tag. Was only there for a few hours I believe.

I'm just gonna head down after work a couple of times a week. If I ever manage get my bankroll from its current $700 position to $3000 then I'll up my stakes to $5/$5 games.

Just doing it for fun and extra chip funds mostly. Like you guys say, with the one casino here holding a monopoly, good profits are unlikely.
 
My hourly is $29.13 over a 350 hour sample size since last August playing exclusively 1/1 and 1/2.
 
Chicken Rob said:
But aren't you in a 1/1 game that is super low rake?

Regardless, nice win rate. Especially if you can sustain it.
Click to expand...
50% of my hours are in a low raked $1/1 game, yes. the other 50% are in standard casino/poker room setting.
 
Was running $200 up after 90 minutes and then lost $150 when my pocket aces got busted by a guy chasing a flush draw, which he made on the river.

Lost another $70 after betting $50 into a flop with Kc3c9d with pocket nines. Got a call who jammed after the turn was another club. I folded. The dealer decided to show what the river would have been and annoyingly it was another 9.

Left even.
 
Not sure what the action is like in WA Mike but home game it all the way if you can. Tough, if not impossible to beat the casino rake over time in Aus at lower stakes.

Home games are generally rake free and 1/2 games tend to play larger than the casino. My reg 1/2 probably plays closer to 2/5 and that seems to be the norm in Syd/Mel.
 
Yeah I've just about managed to arrange a monthly home game now, but we will likely be playing $0.25/$0.50 blinds. The other issue is that all players involved are likely to be profitable casino cash game players, so no easy money like what's to be had at the casino.

I'm heading over to Sydney next week. Other than Star casino, are there any other poker rooms?
 
Depends. Home no-rake game? Casino (New or old makes a big difference). Live raked game?
 
Figured I'd post an update.

My stats are below. Running crazy good right now, fully aware I won't maintain it but there are definitely plenty of morons overvaluing their hands and calling big raises.

Might start posting these every now and then, you guys can see me fall back to reality.
IMG_0673.PNG
 
Thought I'd post another update, since I'm still running well and oddly enough increasing the hourly rate.
Currently profitable in my last 16 sessions in a row at my local casino.
I think people in Perth are just really really bad players. Lots of gamblers playing far too many hands or just calling big bets with weak draws or top pair weak kickers.
I've tried the 5/5 a few times, becuase there was no 1/3 open and players there seem even worse. There are definitely some tricky players and I feel a bit green on those tables, but I just play even more basic poker on those tables and punish the guys that overplay.
IMG_0736.PNG
 

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