How do I hedge this? (1 Viewer)

[bergs]

I'm in a NCAA tourney pool and have first place locked up for $1600 if these teams win their games:

Tomorrow night (Friday, 3/25): UNC, Notre Dame, and Virginia win (don't care who wins the Gonzaga / Syracuse game).

Elite Eight Games: (Saturday & Sunday 3/26-27): Oklahoma, Kansas, UNC, advance and Virginia does not advance (beaten by winner of Syracuse/Gonzaga)

Final Four & Championship: Kansas and UNC make the championship game and UNC wins.

For the mathematicians among us - is there any way that I can hedge wagers on these games such that I'm guaranteed money? Assume that they'll be -150 favorites on the money line in each of their respective remaining games.

(Actually, I need to hedge to a UNC/Kansas final, and it's pretty obvious what I'm doing once I get there).

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I think you're screwed, dude. No way UVa is losing to either Syracuse or Gonzaga.

 

[bergs]

I think you're screwed, dude. No way UVa is losing to either Syracuse or Gonzaga.

'Cuse can beat them if they don't choke at the line. The team is a different squad in the tourney under Boeheim.

Virginia advances but doesn't win their next game and I'm in the money but it's probably third place for $500ish (if everything else works out).

 

[snooptodd]

Not sure if there's enough hedge opportunity to make it worth or yet, but probably some decent middling opportunities. When you have the favorite advancing, bet say $110 on the underdog to cover. If it's a 3+ point spread you might get the cover and the win. So take Indiana +5.5 and Iowa STate +5.

This is made more difficult by the fact that there are multiple games happening at once. After Tonight's games, hedging/middling becomes Much easier. Gotta get three wins first, though.

EDIT TO ADD: The big hiccup in all of this is that you'd have to bet on Virginia to win on the ML in the Elite Eight ... and that's likely to come at a very high price against the likes of Syracuse or Gonzaga. You'll likely be facing -300 odds or worse, which makes hedging a helluva lot harder, especially with at least three games remaining after that game.

 

[snooptodd]

Okay you're still in business, but still can't guarantee yourself much.

Here's the worst case scenario that guarantees you money.

Bet $12.50 on Oregon ML (-125) to win $10. Either win $10 or lose $12.50 and advance.
Bet $22 on 'nova +2.5. Either win $20 (net $9.50) or lose $22 (total $34.50) and advance.
Bet $200 on Virginia ML (-400 is best I could find but it's still early ... You may be able to find better value and bet less). Either win $50 (net $16.50) or lose $200 (total $234.50) and advance.
Bet $275 on ND +9.5. Either win $250 (net $16.50) or lose $275 (total $509.50) and advance.

At this point you still have to have three games work out in your favor and you're already in for $500. we can't do the math out any further than here because we don't know what the lines would be, but assuming the lines would be close at this point, your bets are going to be in the $500, $1,000 and $2,000 range, and since first place is only $1600, you have to just about halve everything.

Of course this doesn't take into account for the fact that you could middle the games where you have the favorite advancing, which dramatically alters the math, but at this point, you're looking at probably locking in a guarantee of about $5 if you want to hedge the whole way. You could also bet the underdog on the ML in games where you picked the favorite, which would lower your risk but also eliminates the possibility of middling.

Verdict? Wait out tonight's games. The Virginia money line is what's going to kill you, so you don't want to already be in the hole before it.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

The problem is you need every one of these games to go your way. You'd have to bet all possible combinations of the opposite outcomes, and I think it would be cost prohibitive. Say in Snoop's scenario you did all of his suggestions, and Virgina somehow lost, but one of the other teams won. Then you'd be out the $200 for betting UVa and you still lose in your pool.

Wait until after these round of games, and then if you still have a shot, it might be a good idea.

 

[snooptodd]

The problem is you need every one of these games to go your way. You'd have to bet all possible combinations of the opposite outcomes, and I think it would be cost prohibitive. Say in Snoop's scenario you did all of his suggestions, and Virgina somehow lost, but one of the other teams won. Then you'd be out the $200 for betting UVa and you still lose in your pool.

Wait until after these round of games, and then if you still have a shot, it might be a good idea.

My scenario relies on betting each game individually and waiting to see the result. Once you win a bet (and are out of the pool) you don't bet the next game. Regardless the benefit is miniscule.

 

[Hot Nuts]

I really hope you win.