Holy Crap! How many outs did I dodge here? (2 Viewers)

[Trihonda]

First off, I played this hand bad (admittedly). I was very tired (3am) and confused (forgot that we were playing PLO8 vs PLO, etc....) This is not designed as a strat thread, but I'm certainly open to discussing the hand. But I already know I played it bad, lol.. There is a reason I'm a donkey when it comes to four card games...

The game: 1/2. 2 rds of NLHE followed by 1 rd of PLO. I'm mixed in with a cast of degens to a game that runs VERY big. The players involved are very wealthy (except me). Surgeons, wealth management folks, etc... Many of these folks have more money than god, so they don't mind mixing it up. The avg stack at the table was around 1k. The game plays like 2/5 and around half the pots are straddled. In the PLO games, it wasn't uncommon for 1pr hands to hold up... The weird thing is we've played multiple rounds of PLO, and it was decided a few orbits prior, that this was going to be the last hand of the night. It was also decided at that time, that the last hand would be PLO8 vs the PLO we've been playing. I'm ok with PLO8, but my brain wasn't in PLO8 mode.

Villain is in EP with $500 effective (in for ~$1,500). He's been stuck and opening light around 50% of the hands for $15, no matter his position. Not sure if he's trying to get unstuck or generate action, but he's had some pretty bizzare hands at showdown.

I'm on the button with around $350 (in for $340). I'm happy to be even on the last hand, it's been a roller coaster ride. I fully intend to play snug this last go-around.

EP opens for $15, and most of the table calls (8 handed). 4 callers, $75 in the pot.

I look down at . I call ($90 in the pot).

Flop comes:

EP checks, and the entire table follows suit. Now, I'm not crazy enough to think that middle set is golden here, but typically this group will put in money if they've got a good hand. Especially EP, who has consistently c-bet when he's got a hand.

I decide to pot for $90. $180 now in the pot. EP calls, and everyone else insta-mucks. $270 in the pot.

Turn is the EP checks. I pot (all in) for my remaining $240. And EP throws a stack of $100 bills in the middle so fast, I realize I was WAY behind... Pot is now $750...

River is the

Villain (EP) shows

I'm like HOLY Crap, F* ck, that's right, we're playing PLO8, but then I realize that his low is counterfeit, and my set of 8's holds up. AND I scoop...

He has the nut low draw, the nut flush draw, a boat draw... Any low card other than the case deuce gives him the low. Any club, gives him the high. Any A or Q gives him a bigger boat.

Can someone smarter than me tell me exactly how far behind I was...? Again, PLO and PLO8 are fun, but I don't have the same edge I think I do in NLHE. Always open to learning. Again, keep in mind, I thought we were playing PLO this hand.


Here's the table early on...

 

[upNdown]

I think I'm folding that hand pre-flop 100% of the time?

 

[krafticus]

1st mistake, fold pre. I am no Omaha genius, but a 2 low pair hand is a recipe for disaster. You got very lucky, but were so far behind and had no idea where you were in this hand. On the Turn, I think he as about 41 1/2 outs.

Mark

 

[Trihonda]

It should be noted that I'm officially logging this night as the night I hit a crap load of suckouts to double up.

Earlier in the session, I have AK, and I'm up against a villain who is very agro. He raises pre to $15, I 3-bet to $45, ton of callers (it's that kind of table), and the flop comes QKK. Tables checks to me, I bet $100, the villain calls. The turn is a J, and he bets $200. I have $140 behind, and a pot that is around $600. I say "I have outs" and toss in the chippies. Villain rolls over JJ, and the river is the case K... The villain says "boy, you it a 1-outter", and the table quickly starts to defend my crazy call, pointing out I actually had 7 outs. Ya, dunno, felt like a 1-outter to me.

Definitely a crazy game. I watched several 2k pots slide back and forth across the table.

 

[jbutler]

Double paired hands are almost always playable pre in high only. To Mark's point, I agree that the fact that they are a middle and a low pair isn't for the best, but while you will typically flop second set rather than top set, you benefit from the connectedness of the two pairs as when you flop a set on a board with a straight draw you will often block wrap outs (as is the case in the OP).

On the button this is a call 100% of the time with this action.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I don't think I've ever seen 3 pair win a pot that had more than $5 in it.

Lucky run out for sure. But other than a club, A or Q you were in decent shape to win 1/2 the pot going into the river. But yea, really lucky to scoop!!!

Nice pot for sure.

 

[GrumpyCatMalaka]

All of them. You dodged all of the outs. Easy game.

 

[Trihonda]

I think I'm folding that hand pre-flop 100% of the time?

1st mistake, fold pre. I am no Omaha genius, but a 2 low pair hand is a recipe for disaster. You got very lucky, but were so far behind and had no idea where you were in this hand. On the Turn, I think he as about 41 1/2 outs.

Mark

Fair input. But I don't usually mind middle suited connector hands, especially in position and priced in. I just ran the numbers (and I'm not great at analyzing PLO8 hands...), it seems like I had decent equity. But again, I might be misinterpreting or overlooking something? Looking at equity in hindsight is one thing, but in the moment I felt like I'd just putting on my big boy agro-pants (he seemed weak). I thought a shove might get EP off draws. I wasn't considering the low...

Ya, lucky scoop for sure. lol..

I ran the numbers as a PLO hand (no low factored), and I have better odds...

 

[detroitdad]

I don't think I've ever seen 3 pair win a pot that had more than $5 in it.

Lucky run out for sure. But other than a club, A or Q you were in decent shape to win 1/2 the pot going into the river. But yea, really lucky to scoop!!!

Nice pot for sure.

Recently I scooped a 220 pot in plo8 with bottom pair lol. .25/.50 stakes

 

[jbutler]

Double paired hands are almost always playable pre in high only. To Mark's point, I agree that the fact that they are a middle and a low pair isn't for the best, but while you will typically flop second set rather than top set, you benefit from the connectedness of the two pairs as when you flop a set on a board with a straight draw you will often block wrap outs (as is the case in the OP).

On the button this is a call 100% of the time with this action.

Aaaaaand I speed read the OP.

Horrible hand in PLO8. And zero chance I get a bunch of money in on any street. 90% of the time any significant action you get will be on a freeroll once the third low card comes in.

 

[courage]

I'm calling pre but realize you have a hand that prolly only plays for half the pot. On the flop I think it's a mistake to pot it, I'd rather pot control. Low draws are going to call you and you could be getting killed by top set. I would prolly check then pot it though if we face a bet. The A on the turn actually hurts the low draws so I'd pot then.

On the turn you are 47.5% to scoop with 30 outs and 75% to win the high. Only a deuce gets you the low and the scoop which you lose 30% of the time. Villain has 25% chance to scoop with 10 outs and 25% to win the high and 14 outs and 35% to win the low.

 

[Trihonda]

Aaaaaand I speed read the OP.

Horrible hand in PLO8. And zero chance I get a bunch of money in on any street. 90% of the time any significant action you get will be on a freeroll once the third low card comes in.

Yup, you're absolutely correct. However, I played it (like a donkey) thinking it was PLO...

 

[courage]

Thousands in play everyone "richer than god" but Milanos, table with no rail and cupholders in the surface.

Someone had to say it.

 

[Trihonda]

I'm calling pre but realize you have a hand that prolly only plays for half the pot. On the flop I think it's a mistake to pot it, I'd rather pot control. Low draws are going to call you and you could be getting killed by top set. I would prolly check then pot it though if we face a bet. The A on the turn actually hurts the low draws so I'd pot then.

On the turn you are 47.5% to scoop with 30 outs and 75% to win the high. Only a deuce gets you the low and the scoop which you lose 30% of the time. Villain has 25% chance to scoop with 10 outs and 25% to win the high and 14 outs and 35% to win the low.

Thanks for the analysis. Sheesh. There's such as edge to this game. I have a lot to learn.

 

[jbutler]

Thousands in play everyone "richer than god" but Milanos, table with no rail and cupholders in the surface.

Someone had to say it.

Biggest pot I was ever in outside a casino ($8k-ish, but five way in PLO8 hand) was played with the smallest step above dice chips. But at least table and chairs were super nice.

 

[BGinGA]

Going into the river, Villain has 7 club outs to scoop -- three (J,T,9) for nut-flush high with no low on board, and four (7,5,4,3) to make both nut high flush and nut low. Add another four full-house outs (Ah,Ad,Qh,Qd) that scoop (no low) for 11 total scoopers, plus 11 outs (all remaining 7,5,4,3 cards) to hit the nut low for half. The other 18 cards scoop for Hero with a set of 8s or a full house.

Summary, waiting on river card:
Hero scoops with 18 cards
Villain scoops with 11 cards
Chopped pot with 11 cards

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I think its a very easy thing to look up how many outs someone had. Why post in the poker strategy forum and say "This is not designed as a strat thread, but I'm certainly open to discussing the hand." Why not just start a brags, beats, and variance forum? If only a moderator saw this, they'd put this thread in the right place...

 

[guinness]

Standard.... this is beyond common tbh.

The very last hand I played earlier this week in a public cardroom:


1/2 PLO8 500 max
Effective stacks 1700.
Villain #1: Crazy Lebanese woman reg, very active. Goes from $1-$Many and back down regularly. Fearless.
Villain #2: New'ish PLO8 player that has been playing regularly, clearly fishy, transitioning from HE, but has luckboxed night into 2k+ stack.
Hero: Very known LAG, look down at .

Preflop:
Some betting/potting, we end up 3-way 250ea pre plus some dead moniez, $800 pot, much larger than normal.

Flop ($800):
AJ5r.
I pot (EP) and get 2 calls (??)

Turn ($3200) J:
I pot my remaining 600'ish, #1 insta pots, 3rd guy tank-mad folds (he later mumbles about being dumb to call the flop).

River ($4400) T.
Lebanese woman JJ56 wins with quads no low.

Hero drives home, txts his degen friends, get consolation notes, drinks IPA's to sleep.


BBOTB IV (maybe V, I forget)
Berg and I were in a $3600 pot heads up, $1/$1 PLO8.

Berg: QQxx (no low)
Me: A554ss
Flop Q53ss.

POT POT POT POT POT

Runs out high cards & no spade, QQQ scoooooops.
Berg had been running terrible and stated he only wanted to run it once, which historically I think this is the only hand we've ever played out once. Wheeeeeeee!!!

 

[Trihonda]

Thousands in play everyone "richer than god" but Milanos, table with no rail and cupholders in the surface.

Someone had to say it.

I dislike that table very much (and the chips are ok...). Some of the other players have better setups. The guy pictured above in the green shirt has a VERY nice table, and a couple thousand Paulson Pharoahs in his cash set. He's also wearing a watch worth $70k. And his annual Christmas bonus is more than my wife and my annual salaries combined. Despite the money, there are actually some thinking players at the table. The watch dude is a decent guy (who himself would never brag or flaunt his wealth, other than wearing a freakin watch worth more than my car).

 

[courage]

and four (7,5,4,3) to make both nut high flush and nut low

Wouldn't be the nut low necessarily, but the live deuce prolly good enough.

 

[courage]

Hero drives home, txts his degen friends, get consolation notes, drinks IPA's to sleep.

Still giving me heartburn.

 

[BGinGA]

Agreed, but given we already know the cards in play....

OP asked how many outs he dodged. Answer is only 11 of 40 cards scooped him. Typical PLO8.

 

[Trihonda]

I think its a very easy thing to look up how many outs someone had. Why post in the poker strategy forum and say "This is not designed as a strat thread, but I'm certainly open to discussing the hand." Why not just start a brags, beats, and variance forum? If only a moderator saw this, they'd put this thread in the right place...

I am not results oriented. I don't think scooping a pot when it was played badly is something to brag about. Getting lucky isn't something to be proud of. But in the moment, my mindset was X. Immediately after the hand, I felt like I got very lucky, and played it badly.

I've had 3 hours of sleep at the time of writing this, and sure it's easy to look at numbers afterwards, but to be frank, analyzing those numbers (for PLO or PLO8) is something I've said was something I struggle with (especially with 3 hours of sleep). There has been some thoughtful and helpful analysis ITT. Thanks for your contribution.

 

[WedgeRock]

You were a PF favorite in the game YOU WERE PLAYING...

Your set was a solid favorite on the flop in the game YOU WERE PLAYING.

Still a 3:1 favorite after the turn in the game YOU WERE PLAYING.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I am not results oriented. I don't think scooping a pot when it was played badly is something to brag about. Getting lucky isn't something to be proud of. But in the moment, my mindset was X. Immediately after the hand, I felt like I got very lucky, and played it badly.

I've had 3 hours of sleep at the time of writing this, and sure it's easy to look at numbers afterwards, but to be frank, analyzing those numbers (for PLO or PLO8) is something I've said was something I struggle with (especially with 3 hours of sleep). There has been some thoughtful and helpful analysis ITT. Thanks for your contribution.

You want strat advice? 8855 double suited is a marginal PLO hand at best, and a horrible PLO8 hand. Sounds like you were too tired to be thinking effectively, and you also may be underrolled for the game. But nice bink!

 

[WedgeRock]

I don't hate the play as a button call in PLO. He's getting 6:1 on his money and the flop might just hit him. Easy fold if the flop misses him. Only risked $15.

Per above, he was a PLO favorite the entire way.

Now you may have folded pre if you realized the game was PLO8, but you probably don't have the stones to play it that way in PLO8.

That said, I think villain plays it the same if he is playing PLO.

 

[Trihonda]

and you also may be underrolled for the game

Confirmed.

It was a last minute game, and I only brought two bullets (coming directly from a late night at work). Max buy was $300 or half the big stack. It's certainly a group of guys that play regularly at 2/5 and 5/10 (some higher) stakes in Vegas.

To me, it was a crazy splashy game with easily 9-10k on the table, but after reading some of the crazy hands from the NE folks, it sounds pretty tame. Fun game regardless.

And this hand might have been one I'd post regardless of outcome. Sure, a lot of crazy variables that went into it. Last hand of the night, up against a stuck opponent, my lack of PLO(8) skillz, etc... Only way to improve is open yourself up to ridicule by discussing your bad play.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Confirmed.

It was a last minute game, and I only brought two bullets (coming directly from a late night at work). Max buy was $300 or half the big stack. It's certainly a group of guys that play regularly at 2/5 and 5/10 (some higher) stakes in Vegas.

To me, it was a crazy splashy game with easily 9-10k on the table, but after reading some of the crazy hands from the NE folks, it sounds pretty tame. Fun game regardless.

And this hand might have been one I'd post regardless of outcome. Sure, a lot of crazy variables that went into it. Last hand of the night, up against a stuck opponent, my lack of PLO(8) skillz, etc... Only way to improve is open yourself up to ridicule by discussing your bad play.

Wasn't played horribly for a PLO hand. Not knowing the right game though is probably minus ev.

 

[detroitdad]

Not knowing the right game though is probably minus ev.

lol.............I did the same thing last Friday night. I lost half my stack when I realized my turned wheel wasn't any good in PLO. Too many beers and 2 am will do that to you some times.

 

[WedgeRock]

I need to start showing up for your cash games...

Show up for the pre-dinner meal, especailly if @Azcat is doing the meat, go watch a movie, come back about 1am...