HHJ affect on strategy.

fish72s

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I need a few more posts to qualify for the Black Friday Giveaway so I am going to post a few strat threads I have had on the back-burner.

The poker room in Daytona doesn't have a bad beat jackpot. Instead it pays out a high hand jackpot. On Saturday nights this is $600 every half hour.
Obviously this has an affect on the strategy. I see some people playing every SC and small pair for more $$ than they normally would, with the hope of making a straight flush or quads
Are the $600 implied odds worth it? Personally I think not since the odds are so small.
But the one situation I think it is almost always (?) correct to alter normal strategy is when I flop a set. 22 to 1 odds to win $600. How wet does the board have to be to protect a set?

I think the straight flush draws are trickier. Normally I'd continuation bet a strong flush draw all day but what if there is a gut shot SF draw in there too. Do we risk giving up the pot or go for the $600?

(Obviously the stack sizes matter. With bigger stacks its more important to play a hand normally w/o regard to the HHJ. I'm am usually in for $100 to $200.)
 

manamongkids

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I am leaning towards your style will depend on your odds to hit the HHJ, how many tables are in play? How many players are at each table? Is there a qualifying $ amount to get the HHJ.

I recall earlier this year, someone on CT posted about the BBJ at Mohegan Sun, i cant recall the exact situation but the table was 2-4 limit, one quad had quads i think vs straight flush, and the pot didnt make it over $20 so it didnt qualify.

But I would tend to think in large poker room you just play straight forward without changing your style to accomodate hitting the HHJ, you are likely to lose more $ in the long run playing more marginal hands OOP trying to get the HHJ than you are to play straight up LAG with premium holdings, you might even have a better shot if you play tighter to catch people trying to the HHJ with marginal hands.

Just my two cents
 

fish72s

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There are usually 15 to 20 tables. Maybe half the time AAAxx wins but quads are common and an occasional SF.
 

Schmendr1ck

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I also play in Daytona (2/5, usually on Friday nights), and I don't change my style because of the HHJs. I do adapt to jackpot chasers, of course, but the jackpot itself never factors into my play.

Also in your set example, remember that your odds of winning the HHJ are not the same as your odds of making quads. I've been on the board with quads twice recently and lost the jackpot both times. In my experience SFs happen more than occasionally.
 

fish72s

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That's true, and relevant. Depending on where the 30 min clock is, I am guessing 'low' quads an 80% to 90% chance of holding up.
And if you are playing 2/5, with more money on the table then I wouldn't change my strategy much either.

Did you play last Friday? There was kind of a sick thing with the HHJ at 10. The 9:30 rolled over and so there was $1200 in the pot at 10:00.
I think AAAKK was the high hand when the clock hit 10pm. Someone was counting their money but almost 2 mins later there was a straight flush in a hand that started just seconds before 10PM.
OUCH! A bad beat and a slow roll.




I also play in Daytona (2/5, usually on Friday nights), and I don't change my style because of the HHJs. I do adapt to jackpot chasers, of course, but the jackpot itself never factors into my play.

Also in your set example, remember that your odds of winning the HHJ are not the same as your odds of making quads. I've been on the board with quads twice recently and lost the jackpot both times. In my experience SFs happen more than occasionally.
 

Schmendr1ck

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That's true, and relevant. Depending on where the 30 min clock is, I am guessing 'low' quads an 80% to 90% chance of holding up.
And if you are playing 2/5, with more money on the table then I wouldn't change my strategy much either.

Did you play last Friday? There was kind of a sick thing with the HHJ at 10. The 9:30 rolled over and so there was $1200 in the pot at 10:00.
I think AAAKK was the high hand when the clock hit 10pm. Someone was counting their money but almost 2 mins later there was a straight flush in a hand that started just seconds before 10PM.
OUCH! A bad beat and a slow roll.
I was there. Those rollovers happen occasionally, and the jackpot chasers go absolutely nuts.

Last time I had quads, the HHJ was $700, and a guy at the table offered to buy my high hand for $400 cash if I paid the taxes. I almost took it but didn't, they announced my hand as the winner when the clock ran out, then corrected the announcement because of a last minute straight flush. THAT was a slowroll. [emoji4]
 

fish72s

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Sorry. Didn't mean to hit a sore spot:)
That really sucks.

So you were there last Friday? I didn't see you.
One of these days I will move over to the 2/5 tables. I think I could hold my own. Is the play any better than $1/$2?

I was there. Those rollovers happen occasionally, and the jackpot chasers go absolutely nuts.

Last time I had quads, the HHJ was $700, and a guy at the table offered to buy my high hand for $400 cash if I paid the taxes. I almost took it but didn't, they announced my hand as the winner when the clock ran out, then corrected the announcement because of a last minute straight flush. THAT was a slowroll. [emoji4]
 

Schmendr1ck

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Sorry. Didn't mean to hit a sore spot:)
That really sucks.

So you were there last Friday? I didn't see you.
One of these days I will move over to the 2/5 tables. I think I could hold my own. Is the play any better than $1/$2?
I came in earlier than usual (about 5:30) and spent nearly 11 hours at table 9. I might be back this Friday, I'll check the room for you if I'm there.

2/5 at Daytona is a different challenge than 1/2, but still soft enough for me to beat consistently. Not as many droolers, more solid players, but still plenty of stations and hyper-aggros. I play tight and value-heavy, but use that image to steal pots from those who pay attention to image. I think you'd do fine, just don't sit at my table. ;)
 

DrStrange

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22-1 to win $600 is worth $27. I have a hard time imagining the set is not worth more at a 1-2 table than $27 (and if hero gets the set busted, the cost is going to be way more than $27 on average).

One bet at a limit table is not going to fold someone with any hope of a draw. Really, how often do you bet on the flop and the table folds?

Bottom line, the HHJ is a sucker proposition when you have a set. Play your hand normally.

If Hero has an OESF draw, the value of the promotion is something like 600/25 per draw or $24. I could easily see Hero playing a hand deeper than normal to go for that draw in a NL game. In a low stakes limit game, hero likely is priced in for the entire hand.

DrStrange
 

fish72s

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Let's say $25 since Schmendr1ck pointed out quads aren't always good. I think its easier to think about as a $25 number (in the case of sets).

But the comparison is not to the value of the hand. Its the difference between the +EV of playing your hand optimally (hopefully) and playing it considering HHJ implied odds. Yes, sometimes we lose $$ to a gutshot straight, but other times we win more when villains hit 2-pair, trips, bluff the river, or call the river with weak holdings. I don't know how one could compute this but with a set it still obviously still way +EV.
I know people misplay many hands because of HHJs (and BBJs) but there really are implied odds for them. Imaging a HHJ of $1 million and you have a $10 stack. It would be correct to play any suited connector or pair no matter the raise.
I am just trying to get a sense for when it is 'correct' to alter normal play to account for these odds and knowing that it is not playing any SC or pair for any raise.

22-1 to win $600 is worth $27. I have a hard time imagining the set is not worth more at a 1-2 table than $27 (and if hero gets the set busted, the cost is going to be way more than $27 on average).

One bet at a limit table is not going to fold someone with any hope of a draw. Really, how often do you bet on the flop and the table folds?

Bottom line, the HHJ is a sucker proposition when you have a set. Play your hand normally.

If Hero has an OESF draw, the value of the promotion is something like 600/25 per draw or $24. I could easily see Hero playing a hand deeper than normal to go for that draw in a NL game. In a low stakes limit game, hero likely is priced in for the entire hand.

DrStrange
 
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