Heater factor (1 Viewer)

Do you believe in a "heater" factor?

  • Yes. Heaters should be taken into account.

    Votes: 17 43.6%
  • No. Heaters are BS.

    Votes: 18 46.2%
  • Poker is dumb.

    Votes: 4 10.3%

  • Total voters
    39

ThinkingFold

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Playing $1/2 on PokerStars. Villain is to my immediate left and has been on fire for the last hour. While not playing totally wild, is hitting everything. Hand for this story opens up with me in middle position with $254 and villain is sitting pretty behind his castle walls of $1100 ish.

Folds to me and I see :8c::8h:. Throw out $18 and villain insta-calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop comes out :7c::8d::2c:. Bet $30 and villain instantly calls again.

Turn is :3h:. Think for a moment and bet $100. Villain posts in chat "I'll get ya on the river. ;)" and shoves. Do not immediately call but think about the fact he just broadcasted to the world he is on a flush draw but also on a crazy heater. I am now rattled and let time run down for awhile before calling.

River is the :tc: and I deflate knowing villain hit flush draw. He of course shows :qc::9c:.

I mumble to myself "Poker is so dumb." while villain posts "lol" in chat.



Not so much a question about this hand ( I do feel though that I played it too timidly for fear of villains recent play. ), but more on how much people value the heater factor when playing. Does anyone adjust play when someone at the table is on a "heater", or is it total BS and just play the cards as you normally would?
 
The awareness of how your opponents respond to either them being on a "heater" or you being on a "heater" is all that is important. If this opens up your opponent's tendency to call, take advantage of that. If it opens up your normally passive opponent's tendency to play more aggressively... make note of that (all of a sudden he gets better because he has more confidence).

... but to fold because you think your opponent is going to suck out on you... that is nonsense. If he is in your head and you are playing sub-optimally as a result... maybe you should call it a night.
 
I instacall that jam every time. You're 84% to win.
Yes.
And I don’t know about you guys, but my heaters usually end with me losing more in a hand than I should because I got out of line because I thought I was invincible. So I’m inclined to get involved with somebody on a heater, hoping they’ve lost perspective.
 
"Heater factor" is mostly meaningless except as @upNdown described above; sometimes the person on the heater will start to get out of line (as this one did). This leaves you more room for value bets, like here with top set getting called by a massive underdog flush draw getting nowhere near good enough odds. Even worse (for him) that he basically told you his hand before you acted, but he could do the same thing dishonestly to mess with you on future hands. And of course it made no difference to your action on this hand.

Really, it's no different from tailoring your play to exploit any other player who starts making decisions based on irrational considerations. Some people shove in a spot like this (not to mention snap-call a very large raise with :qc::9c:) because they're on a heater and feel invincible. Some take actions like this because they "have a feeling" (I hate losing pots to this stupidity), or :qc::9c: is their favorite hand, or they're just bored. You adjust to the heater player in the same way.
 
Folds to me and I see :8c::8h:. Throw out $18 and villain insta-calls. Everyone else folds.

I am going to say going 9x pre is throwing your variance into the stratosphere and probably adding to the angst.

Otherwise there is nothing timid about the way you played it. You bet about 3/4 pot on the flop and about full pot on the turn, when he shoved I guess you had around $100 to win a pot over $300 when you were only having to fade 7 outs. You want that to happen.

But otherwise +1 to everything @Shaggy said. Heaters can be a factor, but really only on the psyc aspects of the game, but that's how I voted. (But "Poker is dumb" is a close second. But good players overcome this.)
 
Heater meets cooler. Sorry he sucked out on you. I have read that table/game selection is a key factor for winning players so if he is on a heater I might table change.
 
Pick a new table. Or just dont play online, the success of hands on river cards and draws is abnormally high. I haven't played online in months because I was so tilted by the bogus suck outs I almost didnt want to play anymore
 
Can we discuss the strategy aspects of this hand for a min first?
- You opened to 9x pre flop? Is that standard? Typically online opens are gonna be in the 2.5-maybe4x range, with live being a little higher, say 4-5x std.

- c bet for ~85% pot on flop with top set, why are you trying to chase off all of the middle strength hands you have crushed.

- bet ~pot on the turn when you still hold the nuts and a brick doesn’t complete or bring in any more draws?

Obviously you can’t fold to any sized raise on the turn with the nuts, no matter how much you have behind, but I think you put yourself in a stickier committed situation than you needed to. Had you gone $8/10/30 for your bet sizes, he’s not shoving, and you can possibly fold with ~$150 behind on the river.

All that said, heaters have a real effect in bolstering stack sizes, widening ranges and increasing aggression. Statistical “heaters” don’t exist.
 
Statistical “heaters” don’t exist.

Over an infinite number of hands I agree. But you can find your self in a sub-sample of 1 to n hands (where n much less than infinity) where you run very hot or very cold. So I think statistically heaters do exist when looking at a smaller sample size.
 
Over an infinite number of hands I agree. But you can find your self in a sub-sample of 1 to n hands (where n much less than infinity) where you run very hot or very cold. So I think statistically heaters do exist when looking at a smaller sample size.
Right, I misphrased that and was implying that the fact that he’s been running good up to this point has no statistical bearing on whether he’s more likely to make a hand this time.
 
I voted yes, but for similar reasons as those mentioned by @Shaggy and @Jimulacrum.

When an opponent is on a heater and opens up because of it, I like adjustments to get more value (wider value range, bigger value bet sizing, etc.).

If I'm on a heater and opponents are tightening up because of it, I'll open up my "small aggression" - wider preflop opening range, more cbets and bluffs at small pots, etc. Players who believe in heaters will keep folding unless they've got it, making it easier to pick up more small pots. And when they finally pick up that hand they've been waiting for, it's obvious.
 
Pick a new table. Or just dont play online, the success of hands on river cards and draws is abnormally high. I haven't played online in months because I was so tilted by the bogus suck outs I almost didnt want to play anymore
Basically only play Tourneys online, or Micro Stakes ... tilt sooooo bad with some of the online beats. I'd like to think it just happens more often due to the high volume of hands, but even that doesn't add up. Too many hands seem juiced.
 
Don't be fooled by randomness. I agree with the comment that how you react to it is key. Personally I love encouraging any player’s notion that they are running hot or cold. Either way if they actually believe that they are going to make poor decisions. I'll take that all day even if some of the time their poor decisions lead to bad outcomes for me. Play the long game.
 
If there were any karmic superstitions influencing that river, it’s the poker gods disgusted at you for slowrolling a call with the nuts in a cash game
 
Playing $1/2 on PokerStars. Villain is to my immediate left and has been on fire for the last hour. While not playing totally wild, is hitting everything. Hand for this story opens up with me in middle position with $254 and villain is sitting pretty behind his castle walls of $1100 ish.

Folds to me and I see :8c::8h:. Throw out $18 and villain insta-calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop comes out :7c::8d::2c:. Bet $30 and villain instantly calls again.

Turn is :3h:. Think for a moment and bet $100. Villain posts in chat "I'll get ya on the river. ;)" and shoves. Do not immediately call but think about the fact he just broadcasted to the world he is on a flush draw but also on a crazy heater. I am now rattled and let time run down for awhile before calling.

River is the :tc: and I deflate knowing villain hit flush draw. He of course shows :qc::9c:.

I mumble to myself "Poker is so dumb." while villain posts "lol" in chat.



Not so much a question about this hand ( I do feel though that I played it too timidly for fear of villains recent play. ), but more on how much people value the heater factor when playing. Does anyone adjust play when someone at the table is on a "heater", or is it total BS and just play the cards as you normally would?
Dude,
Pre, you made it bigger than necessary. Pre- you are like 50/50. Sometimes if you look at it like, if we were playing the hands face up do I like my play? For me, I don't like flipping for stacks..... food for thought, right?

After that you played it fine. You put in whatever like 80% on the flop and pot sized bet on the turn and you are way ahead. All the money goes in with him on draw. You are ahead like 5:1 with all the money going in. Obviously this is frustrating, but you want to do that as frequently as possible.
 
Can we discuss the strategy aspects of this hand for a min first?
- You opened to 9x pre flop? Is that standard? Typically online opens are gonna be in the 2.5-maybe4x range, with live being a little higher, say 4-5x std.

Not standard at all. Mr. heater was completely dictating the play on the table at this point. It had become obvious he would call any standard raise so 3-betting a typical raise had become the new standard raise if that makes sense.

- c bet for ~85% pot on flop with top set, why are you trying to chase off all of the middle strength hands you have crushed.

When the two clubs hit, I told myself he was on the flush draw and was for sure going to hit and win. This was an anger bet of "How can I get him to fold even though I want him to continue and get max value?". At this point, all poker logic has left me and I am playing pure F U poker.

- bet ~pot on the turn when you still hold the nuts and a brick doesn’t complete or bring in any more draws?

Again, at this point I am totally tilted and not doing anything logical. See the 3 come out and think "I got you now! How do I make sure I get you all in?". Then he makes the comment about getting me on the river and shoving.................and my mouse hovers over the fold button for 20 seconds. :unsure:

THE FREAKING GUY COULDN'T MISS! DAMMIT!

This perfectly sums up the point to my post. Nothing more than a typical poker rant trying to come up with an excuse on why I got stacked. ;)

I had been stewing about it for the last 24 hours and after writing it down and re-reading it, I realize it was nothing more than some lucky chump getting in my head and making me play dumb then luckboxing at the end. End result was I should have bailed on the table long before that hand. Was playing like shite for awhile because I was stupidly focused on Mr. Heater. What was Mike McDermott's quote about not spotting the sucker at the table again? :LOL: :laugh:
 
.........End result was I should have bailed on the table long before that hand. Was playing like shite for awhile.......
Wait, you don't want to play with donkeys like that guy?

Get me in that game please...

I gotta tell you. For years and years I have played mostly limit live and you get this sort of thing all the time. WAY more in limit than in nl. I can think of many, many guys that play just like your opponent and 1/4 or 1/5 sessions they can't seem to miss and when you are at the wrong end of that shit, just about nothing is more frustrating however..... Those guys are your money tree. That is where the money comes from long term so you have to sort of embrace it and just suck it up. If those guys never win, they stop playing and then what? You are left playing a more difficult game, right?
 
Wait, you don't want to play with donkeys like that guy?

Get me in that game please...

I gotta tell you. For years and years I have played mostly limit live and you get this sort of thing all the time. WAY more in limit than in nl. I can think of many, many guys that play just like your opponent and 1/4 or 1/5 sessions they can't seem to miss and when you are at the wrong end of that shit, just about nothing is more frustrating however..... Those guys are your money tree. That is where the money comes from long term so you have to sort of embrace it and just suck it up. If those guys never win, they stop playing and then what? You are left playing a more difficult game, right?

Hmmmmm, didn't think about it before but he was basically playing limit at a no limit table. Don't think I ever saw him raise. He would just call, and call, and call. Didn't matter if it was min raise or shove, he was calling it. Problem was........He. Hit. Every. Single. Time.

Call it a heater, pure luck, mad skillz, or his sacrifice to the poker gods that night had been accepted. Whatever it was, he was not being beaten and I should have recognized and bailed.
 
Whatever it was, he was not being beaten and I should have recognized and bailed.
No... you should’ve recognized you were tilting and left because of that.

You should avoid tilting and recognize that this guy is a cash cow... get involved in situations just like you did... when they go sour, rebuy for the maximum. Eventually, you will value town this guy. Play more hands against him... for cheap. Two pair him with trash and bet away.
 
He. Hit. Every. Single. Time.

Call it a heater, pure luck, mad skillz, or his sacrifice to the poker gods that night had been accepted. Whatever it was, he was not being beaten and I should have recognized and bailed.
You want this guy in your game every time.

That guy loses massive money over time. He just happend to get lucky for a short period of time while you were there. Stick around for a while and see what happens. Eventually that guy loses everything he won and then some 100% of the time.
 
No... you should’ve recognized you were tilting and left because of that.

You should avoid tilting and recognize that this guy is a cash cow... get involved in situations just like you did... when they go sour, rebuy for the maximum. Eventually, you will value town this guy. Play more hands against him... for cheap. Two pair him with trash and bet away.
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I make adjustments if my opponents believe in heaters because it affects how they play. But I don't believe that when I'm running hot that I have a higher likelihood of smashing two pair or trips with my T4o than I do when I'm getting cold-decked. However, if the other players at the table believe it, and they act accordingly, I will exploit them for being superstitious and making poor decisions.
 
Uncle Doyle said you have to exploit, psychologically, your heaters ("rushes") to the fullest.
The idea is to induce despair on fellow human beings at the table as much as possible.
Always get in the next pot if you 've won the previous one, regardless of cards.
If you get re-raised and you have thin air, or with no outs on the flop, then stop.
 
It is funny how bad humans are at understanding randomness. If you look at a large sample of poker hands someone plays, there will likely be a stretch where they make strong hands much more often than normal. Humans remember these "heater" events and forget the much more common stretches where someone makes strong hands around the usual amount. This phenomenon of selective memory shows up all over the place and can explain many superstitions and other misconceptions.
 
Uncle Doyle said you have to exploit, psychologically, your heaters ("rushes") to the fullest.
The idea is to induce despair on fellow human beings at the table as much as possible.
Always get in the next pot if you 've won the previous one, regardless of cards.
If you get re-raised and you have thin air, or with no outs on the flop, then stop.
He said that in 1976 though. Even Doyle himself has learned to stop taking his own advice in recent years. Just watch him play. He isn't playing a shitty hand after winning a pot the hand before in tough games anymore.
 

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