Hand Analysis: $500/$1000 NLHE Home Game (1 Viewer)

CrazyEddie

Full House
Joined
Jul 25, 2020
Messages
4,362
Reaction score
7,473
Location
Georgia
For me, I'm trying to win every hand I'm in and I'm also trying to maximize profit. Obviously there are plays which are profitable where you're not favored, but... duh.
The original context was where I recommended calling the 3-bet and said "With five players you'll probably lose the hand, but the goal is to win money, not hands." That's a way of saying "Some people would balk at playing this hand because the odds of winning are so small, but you shouldn't consider whether you're likely to win a hand, but rather, whether the play is profitable, even if it only rarely succeeds."

And, yes, it's kind of a duh concept, but of course there are lots of players who don't understand concepts like this. Not that I think either you or Krish or anyone else in this thread needs that explained; I was simply commenting on a PAHWM and going through my thought process out loud.
 

kirchhausen

Flush
Joined
Nov 6, 2014
Messages
1,815
Reaction score
3,440
Location
Edgewater, Md
It’s time for another hand from this past weekend. Taking @DrStrange ’s advice, no early dismissals of villains in the description.

Due to the presence of a certain whale-lawyer-player, host upped the blinds to $500/$1000, attracting a pretty pro-heavy 8-player lineup.

Host, you will remember, is the same one who rivered a straight flush in this thread.

Minimum buy-in for this session is $250k. No big pots yet, largest one was about $20k. Only 15-20 hands into the night. Everyone is fresh, no one is drunk. No television, soft music. People are playing poker. Hero is on the button. Most are around $250k, except for Host who has bought in for $500k and V1 (UTG) who has bought in for $400k.

V1 is UTG and has straddled to $2000. Big, ballsy, splashy player. Plays large games in Macau. Considered one of the big private game whales. Not a professional.

V2 is UTG+1, raises to $6,000. LAG pro. Penchant for bluffing, known to be fearless.

V3 is in the HJ, 3-bets to $15,000. GTO-heavy, I’m told. Nitty pro.

V4 in the cutoff calls $15,000. Host.

Hero is on the button. Stack at $275k. Looks down at:

:jh::th:.

Hero?
UTG +1 raise (effectively UTG because of straddle) is pretty strong. most solid pros will not raise in that early position unless they have a solid starting hand. Nitty pro 3 betting this string raise is super strong). I really don't think calling here is smart, as you are not closing the action, and best case scenario you call & everyone else folds the SPR is already less than 5.

Raise here would be SUPER strong, but I just don't like it in this spot. I fold.
 

kirchhausen

Flush
Joined
Nov 6, 2014
Messages
1,815
Reaction score
3,440
Location
Edgewater, Md
Not going to belabor this decision, Hero only has to put an additional $30k in to flop pretty into a $220K+ pot, so definitely calling.

Continuing…

It’s time for another hand from this past weekend. Taking @DrStrange ’s advice, no early dismissals of villains in the description.

Due to the presence of a certain whale-lawyer-player, host upped the blinds to $500/$1000, attracting a pretty pro-heavy 8-player lineup.

Host, you will remember, is the same one who rivered a straight flush in this thread.

Minimum buy-in for this session is $250k. No big pots yet, largest one was about $20k. Only 15-20 hands into the night. Everyone is fresh, no one is drunk. No television, soft music. People are playing poker. Hero is on the button. Most are around $250k, except for Host who has bought in for $500k and V1 (UTG) who has bought in for $400k.

V1 is UTG and has straddled to $2000. Big, ballsy, splashy player. Plays large games in Macau. Considered one of the big private game whales. Not a professional.

V2 is UTG+1, raises to $6,000. LAG pro. Penchant for bluffing, known to be fearless.

V3 is in the HJ, 3-bets to $15,000. GTO-heavy, I’m told. Nitty pro.

V4 in the cutoff calls $15,000. Host.

Hero is on the button. Stack at $275k. Looks down at:

:jh::th:.

Hero is aware that this hand is a simple preflop fold. Hero is also loose. And had just won $12k+ the previous hand. It’s not even 90 minutes into the session. And JTs is so pretty. So he calls. Sigh.

V1 has not even pulled his cards together after they’ve been dealt. He’s been looking at his phone. He looks up when he’s told action is on him. He reviews the action thus far. He says, “ah I’m bored, let’s gamble.”

V1 raises to $45,000. Blind. Then pulls his 2 cards together. And peeks. Host asks, “you haven’t looked?” V1 confirms he hasn’t. We don’t know whether to believe him.

V2 calls.

V3 calls.

V4 calls.

There is now ~$196k in the pot. The game just turned, quickly.

Hero still has JTs; sadly.

Hero calls.

Flop is an incredible one for us:

:jc::8h::9d:

V1 bets out, no hesitation: $90,000.

v2 folds.

v3 folds.

v4 tanks. Calls.

Hero?
time to jam!
 

kirchhausen

Flush
Joined
Nov 6, 2014
Messages
1,815
Reaction score
3,440
Location
Edgewater, Md
So if you were deeper, you almost certainly could have got the AJ hand to fold. As played, he was priced in after calling the 90k bet. This is what at SPF of 4-5 it is a clear fold preflop.
 

CrazyEddie

Full House
Joined
Jul 25, 2020
Messages
4,362
Reaction score
7,473
Location
Georgia
Hero is stacked. And makes a mental note never to play J10s like that again.

FWIW you were just barely ahead on the runout:

1655315588058.png


Your EV after the action was closed was 33.495% of the pot, just barely ahead of an even share of 33.333%. That means your jam was just barely correct, even without considering any fold equity, which - if it existed - would have made the jam hugely profitable.

When you account for all the dead money, your EV for the hand was (915k * 33.495%) = 306,479.25, less your 275,000.00 risked = $31k profit by playing this hand, in expectation.

Not bad at all for a game where the biggest pot so far was only $20k.
 
Top Bottom