Fun Hand Analysis, what would you do? (1 Viewer)

[Outkicked]

You sit down at a 2-100 spread limit and are 6 handed. You sit down with $200, Third hand at the table you are in the cutoff with AcJd and raise to $8, only the big blind calls. Flop is 7cAd3s. Big blind leads out for $35 and you call, turn is the Qh, the big blind fires out a bet of $70, you know nothing about this player other than they have $600+ in their stack

 

[kmccormick100]

Unknown player donk leads $35 into $19 on the flop? I might just fold then, completely dry board, no draws. Assuming I call the flop, I’m almost definitely folding for $70 into $89 on the turn.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Donk bets that are over the size of the pot seem very strange. Especially on a pretty dry board. Seems he should have 2 pair or a set a lot here. But if he does, why would he be trying to push Hero out of the pot? Such a strange line. If he is that strong why not check and let Hero continuation bet?

AJ should not be good here vast majority of the time. I lean towards fold and will being paying close attention to this player to see what the heck is going on.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'm not a fan of getting caught up in this kind of spot. The flop overbet is suspicious and seems strong. Villain is going straight for your stack on a very dry board, and all you have is top pair second kicker. Wouldn't be surprised if he has something weird like 37. People who overbet can be like that.

 

[jpietrella]

Feels like you're up against A3, A7, AQ or total air. AJ isn't gonna be good here a large percentage of the time and I might have just tossed it after the flop with an over bet. Either that or put in the raise after the flop to see where you're at.

 

[power13]

In my experience donk bets are frequently a medium strength hand. The sizing was big as noted previously, which is concerning but a good hand is not scared of this board and should be checking. So this person could have a bad ace, 76, 65, 43, 32, 66, 88, and even 99 or TT.

I think I would have preferred a small raise on the flop and real strength will show us at that point. Otherwise you are getting a fold, or a call and likely check on the turn. As played, you don't have as good clarity.

In this case, you are pot committed on a call so could shove, but if he's bluffing you want him to put the rest of his stack in bad. If you stuff it he could fold worse and it will all go in on the river anyway (your stack not his).

Note: edited for clarity

 

[Rhodeman77]

In my experience donk bets are frequently a medium strength hand. I would say something like 66 or 88 is very possible. The sizing was big as noted previously. I think I would have preferred a small raise on the flop and real strength will show us at that point. Otherwise you are getting a fold, or likely a check on the turn. In this case you don't have as good clarity. You are pot committed on a call so could shove, but if he's bluffing you want him to put the rest of his stack in bad. If you stuff it he could fold worse and it will all go in on the river anyway.

The problem with raising the flop bet is Hero is pot committed then. How do put in $70+ and fold for $120~ if villain jams?

 

[power13]

The problem with raising the flop bet is Hero is pot committed then. How do put in $70+ and fold for $120~ if villain jams?

I think he will be playing very face up at that point. As played, hero calls the $70 but is now still facing aggression without really narrowing his range. The raise may get a fold, but most likely will be a call and very high likelihood a check on the turn, so we are getting to the river cheaper than in the current line. If he jams yes it is a big laydown given the pot odds but he is clearly nutted so sure we can lay it down.

Really if we are that worried about his hand strength hero should have folded on the flop.

 

[tabletalker7]

Is it possible that the villain is a filthy amateur and is over betting and flopped the double belly buster? ............. ................ Either way, he did one thing right. You can't just call here. If you think your ace is good you have to shove. If you don't, then you have to fold. Personally, I think either you are beat here.

 

[Outkicked]

really enjoy the feedback! Ok here is the result. I was a little taken back at the donk lead but folding top pair with a decent kicker felt a little to nitty to fold on the flop so I call (in position) and look for a decent card on the turn. At this point 33-1010 really seems to be sticking out in my mind as the front runner and he is banking on me having an ace in my hand and put me to the test on the turn to get all the money in by the river with easy pot odds and I’m pretty much drawing dead if he has 77 or 33. So the turn comes a Qh and he bets $70 and after analyzing the hand I ended up folding. The villain shows 74os and grabs his beer which I did not see him drink the first three hands and realize he is drunk and already down over $2500. I add onto my stack and tangle with him one more time with a hard fold on another river and turn my last $90 into $452 in under 30min. If I would have been able to watch him another orbit or two this would have been an easy raise for all in on the turn but this is the game we all love to hate some days. The important thing here that I felt comfortable in isolating him when in position and let him donk lead and take the pots i a controlled manor rather than play coin flips for stacks which can backfire pretty quickly. Thanks foe the feedback everyone!!! I really enjoyed this hand and the thought process behind it

 

[power13]

Wow he was even wider than I expected. With more of a player profile I think the correct play would be just buckle in and call down all 3 streets assuming he is going to try to blow you off with air or he will give up on the river and you would likely check back. Just give him rope to hang himself. On a wetter flop you could be more aggressive since he could be doing blocking bets with draws also and will call raises on flop and turn. Bummer he didn’t show his colors on a prior hand!

 

[Outkicked]

Wow he was even wider than I expected. With more of a player profile I think the correct play would be just buckle in and call down all 3 streets assuming he is going to try to blow you off with air or he will give up on the river and you would likely check back. Just give him rope to hang himself. On a wetter flop you could be more aggressive since he could be doing blocking bets with draws also and will call raises on flop and turn. Bummer he didn’t show his colors on a prior hand!

Yeah eventually everyone took their turns isolating him and picking him off, he dumped $1k while I was sitting down, sure he caught a few rivers but eventually everyone got their fare share of his “throw away money”