Freaky hand... What are the odds?! (1 Viewer)

[Blind Joe]

So I was playing heads up microstakes with a friend last night and we were enduring a spell of getting absolute trash hands - the 72o type where it's just better to give up your BB and re-deal or barely playable hands that miss the flop so bad you're just waiting to fold. My friend commented that we were both pretty card dead at the moment, to which I joked "Don't worry, it'll be AK v KQ next." Well, he shuffled, dealt, and I think you know where I'm going with this.

I looked down at AK and said "Wow, what a coincidence," at which he laughed. I was playfully trying to mess with him, because it's the type of thing I'd have said if I'd have got dealt anything, just to get in his head, but I actually had it.

He raises, I 3-bet and we finally go to the flop with a decent pot.

I couldn't believe it when I hit 2 pair on the flop, and there was no way he was believing I had AK after I'd "predicted it" and did my "what a coincidence routine" so he happily called my more or less pot sized bet. And he had his reason to.

Well, the board ran out and he continued to call everything I threw at him, then re-raised me on the river. I couldn't believe it when we flipped.

Spoiler: Board

 

[kmccormick100]

.014% chance of you being dealt AK and KQ I think.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

50-50 chance, either it happens or it doesn't.

Okay, real math (someone please correct me if I make a mistake here, I'm on my first cup of coffee):

For you, 16 combos of AK out of 1326 possible hands (52 choose 2) = 1.207%.
For your friend, 12 combos of KQ out of 1225 possible hands remaining (50 choose 2) = 0.9796%.

Chance of both = 1.207% * 0.9796% = 0.012%. (Reasonably close to @kmccormick100.)

 

[Blind Joe]

Well, I meant what are the odds of me calling the hands we were dealt

The way the board ran out just topped it off.

 

[upNdown]

Sigh.
Math dinks.
The real question is, what are the odds of AK vs KQ coming out RIGHT AFTER HE CALLED IT.
To which you math dinks will reply "the odds are the same"
Because you're math dinks.
My question is, how in the hell can you play cards on a hard wood surface? CAN'T PICK UP THE CARDS!!!

 

[kmccormick100]

50-50 chance, either it happens or it doesn't.

Okay, real math (someone please correct me if I make a mistake here, I'm on my first cup of coffee):

For you, 16 combos of AK out of 1326 possible hands (52 choose 2) = 1.207%.
For your friend, 12 combos of KQ out of 1225 possible hands remaining (50 choose 2) = 0.9796%.

Chance of both = 1.207% * 0.9796% = 0.012%. (Reasonably close to @kmccormick100.)

You’re right, I didn’t account for the missing king!

 

[Blind Joe]

Sigh.
Math dinks.
The real question is, what are the odds of AK vs KQ coming out RIGHT AFTER HE CALLED IT.
To which you math dinks will reply "the odds are the same"
Because you're math dinks.
My question is, how in the hell can you play cards on a hard wood surface? CAN'T PICK UP THE CARDS!!!

Slide them just over the edge of the table, easy

I know, I know, someone was bound to mention the surface, but it it is what it is. He's just bought the place, a poker table or topper isn't at the top of his priorities just yet, and we have fun, that's the main thing. AND THAT I CALLED AK v KQ!!!!

 

[Josh Kifer]

Sigh.
Math dinks.
The real question is, what are the odds of AK vs KQ coming out RIGHT AFTER HE CALLED IT.
To which you math dinks will reply "the odds are the same"
Because you're math dinks.
My question is, how in the hell can you play cards on a hard wood surface? CAN'T PICK UP THE CARDS!!!

Asking the real questions here.....

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Sigh.
Math dinks.
The real question is, what are the odds of AK vs KQ coming out RIGHT AFTER HE CALLED IT.
To which you math dinks will reply "the odds are the same"
Because you're math dinks.
My question is, how in the hell can you play cards on a hard wood surface? CAN'T PICK UP THE CARDS!!!

I already answered that in the first part of my post: it's 50-50.

Love,
Math Dink, esq.

 

[AWenger]

"Don't worry, it'll be AK v KQ next."

For you, 16 combos of AK out of 1326 possible hands (52 choose 2) = 1.207%.
For your friend, 12 combos of KQ out of 1225 possible hands remaining (50 choose 2) = 0.9796%.

Chance of both = 1.207% * 0.9796% = 0.012%. (Reasonably close to @kmccormick100.)

Well, I meant what are the odds of me calling the hands we were dealt

It's the same thing. (note @Schmendr1ck 's numbers seem right, although I haven't checked them myself), but to phrase it a different way, (for these two hands AK & KQ), the odds are 1 out of 8,460 that AK & KQ would be the next hands dealt. [1/((16/1326) * (12/1225)) = 1/8460]. 1/8640 = 0.0001182 = 0.01182%

 

[Schmendr1ck]

It's the same thing. (note @Schmendr1ck 's numbers seem right, although I haven't checked them myself), but to phrase it a different way, (for these two hands AK & KQ), the odds are 1 out of 8,460 that AK & KQ would be the next hands dealt. [1/((16/1326) * (12/1225)) = 1/8460]. 1/8640 = 0.0001182 = 0.01182%

Yep.

If I say, "I believe the next two hands will be <random hand 1> and <random hand 2>, the odds of those hands actually being next are just what we said, about 0.012%. This assumes that neither of the hands called is paired or suited, that changes the number of combos and thus changes the odds.

 

[upNdown]

If I say "you math dinks will take all the joy out of life," the odds of me being correct are 100%

 

[bigdonkey]

0.01182% of the time it works every time.