Find a fold or call? (2 Viewers)

[HanShot1st]

Hero stack roughly $80
Villain just rebought for $200, general impression is a LAG player, have seen him play some aggressive hands and get lucky in previous games.
This takes place two orbits in from when I bought in.

$1/1 NLH home game that can play bigger

Hero is dealt AK in the c/o

2 middle position LAG players limp

Hero raises to $6

SB calls, both limpets call

4 ways to flop



Flop is AK10

Checks to hero

Hero bets $20

SB calls, both MP fold

Turn 6

SB checks, Hero checks

River 5

SB leads for $75

This bet covers you, do you find a fold here?

 

[Kain8]

 

[Pesto628]

I’m definitely calling here given the low SPR on the flop. Probably raising larger pre flop as well. Don’t see how you can fold with such a short stack in front of you and you’re pretty high up in your range. I would say villain is pretty polarized between bluffs and nutted hands given you block Ax and Kx hands so he has straights and a few flushes in his range here but also missed straights, missed Qd flush draws and perhaps some small pairs turned into bluffs

 

[gkitt80]

I am calling here - you already have $26 of your $80 starting stack in the pot, which by my count is $64 before the shove. Its $54 to win $118. Doubt he has a set as he would have raised pre, unless he made a stupid call on the flop with 66 or 55. That leaves flush or QJ as the only hands that beat you. I could see him semi bluffing here with Ax, or just straight up bluffing with a missed flush much more often than hands that beat you. Easy call IMO.

 

[RowdyRawhide]

I call but would have bet another 20 bucks after the turn to give me a better idea of where I stand

 

[DoubleEagle]

I'm calling, but I would have shoved what you had left on the turn. Unlikely the turn or river helped him. Unless he flopped straight or a flush you should be golden.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Agree with raising more preflop. Agree with betting on the turn instead of checking back. As played, call the river.

It's especially a call on the river because you checked back the turn, BTW. Against an aggressive player, you're basically forcing him to try to steal on the end if he doesn't have anything. You're also enticing him to value-bet a little wider (e.g., smaller two pair) because he may expect you to have a bare pair of aces.

You'll run into a fair number of big made hands too, but his line doesn't narrow him down to a strong enough range that you should fold top two pair here.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm calling, but I would have shoved what you had left on the turn. Unlikely the turn or river helped him. Unless he flopped straight or a flush you should be golden.

I agree with this 100%

I like the 6x sizing pf over the two limps. The limp callers can have A or K with a random diamond and call, so I think there's plenty of value to be had betting 20 otf.

And I think this is the reason to shove the turn, you have about a pot size shove and can get called by plenty here. I don't see too many flushes in villian's range, I certainly see a lot of one pair missed draws turned into bluffs after you check the turn. So as played I think you call.

 

[detroitdad]

Agree with raising more preflop. Agree with betting on the turn instead of checking back. As played, call the river.

This all the way.

 

[v1pe]

I think a $6-8 open pre-flop is good, you *could* size up in a particularly loose game and/or one that has players that aren't going to adjust to you varying your sizings...but it's also fine to just raise ~pot with 100% of your opening range.

My personal strategy is to downbet a bit on monotone boards, especially a board like this that's uber coordinated. You bet $20 into a $24ish pot? I would probably size down to $10-12, I think this accomplishes a bit of pot control and allows drawing hands (most reasonable diamonds) and worse Aces and Kings (especially with a diamond) to call, and I think a small bet will fold out any/all air or under pairs on a board like this. A smaller bet on the flop allows another 1/2 sized pot bet on the turn which will probably buy you a check on the river where you can check back (nothing worse is calling 3 streets of betting).

As played, I'm probably just shoving the turn, but definitely have to call the river after you checked back the turn.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Nope I am folding. All kinds of hands Villain could be on that beat my two two pair. To gkitt - why would the SB to have been stupid to call with 55 or 66 preflop?? He could easily have flush, straight, or set and the way he bet is just how I would have done it. Right or wrong.

And I agree with some others. A smaller bet post flop is what I may have done. Or bet really big and try and take it down right now. But as you played it I am folding.

 

[gkitt80]

Nope I am folding. All kinds of hands Villain could be on that beat my two two pair. To gkitt - why would the SB to have been stupid to call with 55 or 66 preflop?? He could easily have flush, straight, or set and the way he bet is just how I would have done it. Right or wrong.

And I agree with some others. A smaller bet post flop is what I may have done. Or bet really big and try and take it down right now. But as you played it I am folding.

Steve, sorry if I wasn't clear. Preflop call with 55 or 66 is fine, my point was calling a $20 bet on the flop with that board and board texture with 55 or 66. When villain called the $20 bet on the flop, he is unlikely to have turned or rivered a set for precisely this point IMO. Leaving the only possible hands that beat Hero as flushes and straights.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Steve, sorry if I wasn't clear. Preflop call with 55 or 66 is fine, my point was calling a $20 bet on the flop with that board and board texture with 55 or 66. When villain called the $20 bet on the flop, he is unlikely to have turned or rivered a set for precisely this point IMO. Leaving the only possible hands that beat Hero as flushes and straights.

Ok gotcha. I don't disagree at all with that thinking.

 

[MegaTon44]

As someone who exclusively plays $1/$1 NLHE home games, this is an easy call. Standard raise PF for the stakes, which I don't find to be an issue. I believe missing a turn bet was huge, which led to the big river bet from villain. Snap it off and embrace the horror.

 

[gkitt80]

I mean I guess villain could have and think his flush draw might be good, but I am folding to a $20 flop bet with that hand in those shoes - too many higher flushes if the diamond comes

 

[JustinInMN]

So I am still thinking about this. And I am hat having a hard time assigning value to villian. I don't think flopped sets make sense, there is one combo of AA or KK left and he would have to limp and flat those pf. TT maybe, but difficult with no pf raise. We partially block all the flop two pairs as well, and villian took no aggressive actions u til the river.

So maybe a carefully played QJ or Q-hi flush make sense. But then we are looking to how many :d: hands villian can play pf.

Qj is reasonable (And I could see the flopped royal taking this line), maybe Q9 or q8 as well. I really think that is it for "value" that beats us. We could throw some smaller flushes in there too, but how many check-call flop check turn? We can have the in out had all day from villian's perspective unless he is actually holding it. Hard to see a slowbplaued straight without holding the as villian as well.

So if I give him all 4 combos, plus exactly , , maybe , , smaller flushes I think have incentive to get a raise in earlier and need to call the pf raise, op can maybe fill in details on how many suited hands he feels villian could have here and slowplay, but my gut is to draw the line here given the action it's hard for me to see a 9 hi or smaller flush not going for the check raise all in on the flop.

So if that's 8 combos of value, we need to come up with 4 combos of bluffs/value we can beat to justify the call. I think against an aggressive player I could see all the combos and combos for sure. So that's 6 right there, maybe the occasionally over played A-T, A-6, or A-5 puts us well over the top to account for possible underestimates

So unless this happens to be a LAG that never bluffs, I think you are good to call. You will be shown some high flushes, or maybe a straight that opted to play careful until the river, but I think you clearly beat more than enough to call.

 

[HanShot1st]

Hero cry calls, and villain turns over
68



I’m not sure how I could have bet the turn unless I was making my 2 pair a bluff. Which in retrospect I guess is possible. Unfortunately I don’t see much hope in this particular villain folding with his flopped flush.

In the end I think I under bet pre, and allowed the villain to play at the bottom of his perceived range.

Ugh...

 

[JustinInMN]

I’m not sure how I could have bet the turn unless I was making my 2 pair a bluff. Which in retrospect I guess is possible. Unfortunately I don’t see much hope in this particular villain folding with his flopped flush.

Yeah, he's never folding a flush. But I don't know if pf raising makes much difference here. Some players are just price insensitive once they get a dollar in, they're going for it.

The reason you bet the turn against a lag is AK is still going to be the best hand most of the time and you want to collect from the single diamonds and inferior hands. If you think villian is folding all other 2-pair on this board then I could see the argument for checking the turn. But you need to get value from these hands to make up for when you do run into flushes here.

The only way you can get away from this is if you have a cold read. Otherwise if you think he's never bluffing he really is more of a TAG at least postflop.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Yeah, he's never folding a flush. But I don't know if pf raising makes much difference here. Some players are just price insensitive once they get a dollar in, they're going for it.

The reason you bet the turn against a lag is AK is still going to be the best hand most of the time and you want to collect from the single diamonds and inferior hands. If you think villian is folding all other 2-pair on this board then I could see the argument for checking the turn. But you need to get value from these hands to make up for when you do run into flushes here.

The only way you can get away from this is if you have a cold read. Otherwise if you think he's never bluffing he really is more of a TAG at least postflop.

Well I had no read other than what I read on here and I folded. With the way the hand went I figured he only had three hands. A set, a flush, or a bluff. And I didn't think that was a bluff.

 

[JustinInMN]

Well I had no read other than what I read on here and I folded. With the way the hand went I figured he only had three hands. A set, a flush, or a bluff. And I didn't think that was a bluff.

If we're talking about the turn why can't he ever have AT, KT, AQ, KQ, QT (without the queen of diamonds). If the guy can show up with 86s he can show up with some of these as well for sure, and many of these hands will call a turn shove just like flushes will.

If your strategy does not involve getting value in these spots you will win the minimum when ahead and lose more than that when behind.

Yes you can hope to make the perfect read and hope to fold aces up correctly every time here, but eventually that will lead to losing pots to bluffs as well.

This is just a cooler. I think other that the turn op played fine. Even the river after checking the turn was a fine call absent a perfect read.

 

[luv2breformed]

I also think this is an easy call. Sucks about the result, tho.

 

[Steve Birrer]

If we're talking about the turn why can't he ever have AT, KT, AQ, KQ, QT (without the queen of diamonds). If the guy can show up with 86s he can show up with some of these as well for sure, and many of these hands will call a turn shove just like flushes will.

If your strategy does not involve getting value in these spots you will win the minimum when ahead and lose more than that when behind.

Yes you can hope to make the perfect read and hope to fold aces up correctly every time here, but eventually that will lead to losing pots to bluffs as well.

This is just a cooler. I think other that the turn op played fine. Even the river after checking the turn was a fine call absent a perfect read.

I was talking about folding to his river shove.

 

[JustinInMN]

I was talking about folding to his river shove.

Gotcha. I still say the call is defensible unless the guy is a never-bluffer. (Then the range you assigned makes sense, but fits the profile more of a loose-passive, given what he showed down, than a LAG.)

And I still think shoving the turn, even if it means taking lumps against flushes, is long term the best strategy, unless villian's are super tight.

 

[CollegeMac]

I would have played it exactly would the villain would had if I had flopped a flush, straight, or even a set of tens. You also have to image what hands you beat that he would be betting the river with. I can only image him having a worse 2pair like A10 or maybe A5. While he beats you with all sets, straights, and flushes.

Due to this, finding a fold here would be appropriate depending on your read on the villain.

 

[nostalgiccat]

I don't think you can find a fold here. They could easily be bombing here with worse value bets (e.g. A T), especially since it looks like you don't have a strong hand. I think you're at the top of your range when you check the turn and it's usually a bad decision to fold when you're at the top of your range.

 

[Gobbs]

I have no issue with any street or decision in the entire scenario. Just poker.

 

[bg26892]

Folding is bad - especially with those pot odds.