Final Table Hand, is this Ben approved? (1 Viewer)

[Anthony Martino]

Paging @Ben and @DrStrange

Ok strat question

Final table of 40k guaranteed tourney, 9 players left

Guaranteed $1,200. Next jumps are to $1500, $1900 and $2500.

Up top is almost 14k

Blinds are 6/12k with 2k ante, so we bleed almost 40k chips each time the button comes around


I have a stack of 310k in the BB, avg is 400k
EP raises to 32k, another EP player calls, button calls

These guys all have 500-700k each

I look down at KJ suited in the BB. Sometimes I call here, but I figured I could shove, here is my reasoning
I have blockers to AK, AJ, KK and JJ

Hands like AJ, AT and TT and lower probably fold.

AQ suited and JJ have a tough spot and might fold also

Really only worried about getting called by AK, AA, KK, QQ in this spot most of the time

I figured I had an opportunity to force the folds and increase my stack by almost 50%, or get heads up with dead money in the pot and maybe be 60/40 or even a flip sometimes

 

[Payback]

Paging @Ben and @DrStrange

Ok strat question

Final table of 40k guaranteed tourney, 9 players left

Guaranteed $1,200. Next jumps are to $1500, $1900 and $2500.

Up top is almost 14k

Blinds are 6/12k with 2k ante, so we bleed almost 40k chips each time the button comes around


I have a stack of 310k in the BB, avg is 400k
EP raises to 32k, another EP player calls, button calls

These guys all have 500-700k each

I look down at KJ suited. Sometimes I call here, but I figured I could shove, here is my reasoning
I have blockers to AK, AJ, KK and JJ

Hands like AJ, AT and TT and lower probably fold.

AQ suited and JJ have a tough spot and might fold also

Really only worried about getting called by AK, AA, KK, QQ in this spot most of the time

I figured I had an opportunity to force the folds and increase my stack by almost 50%, or get heads up with dead money in the pot and maybe be 60/40 or even a flip sometimes

I'm assuming you are in the SB or BB?

Once an EP players raises, gets two calls, I'm just calling as well in the BB, as it's only costing around 7-8% of your stack more. See a flop and play some poker as you are deep enough to do so.

Reason I'm not shoving is that you have to get through 3 people in a squeeze like situation, which is exactly what you are doing. Other reasons are their stacks are bigger, pay bumps aren't huge at this point so people are more likely to call (Your getting called from TT/JJ, maybe even 99 and AQ in this spot) and the raise and first call came from EP so their ranges are going to be a lot tighter. I'm assuming the last part as no read were provided, which is YUGE at this point of the tournament.

So call>shove>fold here IMO.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Sorry, updated the OP, I am in the BB here.

 

[upNdown]

Some pretty basic thought process here, but with 25bb at a full final table, I'm not sure I'd shove into 3 limpers with KJ suited, let alone 3 guys in for almost 3x.
I admire the balls, but if your best case scenario is to get heads up to a flip, I think you have plenty of time to wait for a better spot.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Some pretty basic thought process here, but with 25bb at a full final table, I'm not sure I'd shove into 3 limpers with KJ suited, let alone 3 guys in for almost 3x.
I admire the balls, but if your best case scenario is to get heads up to a flip, I think you have plenty of time to wait for a better spot.

I don't think that's my best case scenario. My best case scenario is that the original raiser folds. He's really the only player I expect can possibly call given the action. And really only with AA, KK, AK, QQ.

If he has AQ or JJ he's in a tough spot and may lay it down. Anything weaker I expect he's folding there. Once I'm through him, the other guys aren't calling, imo.

Also, I have a stack of 310K, but we're burning though 40K each go around, which means my M is around 7 because those antes are killer. If I don't accumulate chips I'll be dropping to an M of 5 and will be in shove/fold mode anyway, can't just consider how many bigs I have because the antes factor in huge.

 

[Burke]

Using your same line of thinking, I think it's a snap call for AQ and JJ personally. Assuming he understands you are a thinking player which he may know from some of your earlier astute moves.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Using your same line of thinking, I think it's a snap call for AQ and JJ personally. Assuming he understands you are a thinking player which he may know from some of your earlier astute moves.

We have less than 10 hands history together, we were never at the same table until now

If I get through the original raiser, the others fold

These guys aren't calling for half their stack with 7's

 

[Danger mouse]

This really depends if you cover any of the players. Especially the opener. If you do I like the raise as you put a lot of pressure on them with ICM.

Considering you don’t and you have 25bb I would fold.

 

[Ben]

In a high-level tourney this is almost a mandatory squeeze IMO. Personally I vastly prefer squeezing with an A or K in my hand vs something like 97 sooted like some others would advocate. YMMV.

In a typical $100 daily donkfest, not so much. There I could definitely make an argument for folding, although when it comes down to it I probably would toss in the 20k and see what happens.

Not much context in the OP as to which this tourney is closer to. Buy-in? General level of play observed?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Buyin was $340, this is an event they hold a few times a year with a 40k guarantee. Four Day 1's with a final Day 2 to advance to

Day 2 started with 29 players but only 18 got paid. We were on the money bubble for over an hour before it broke

Had zero history with the original raiser, fisrt time we met was at final table and it's been under 10 hands

The cold callers are two guys I have played with

The one in EP was the monster stack at my previous table. He was on my direct right and I took advantage of his high frequency of raises by coming over the top in a few spots and forcing a fold

The button caller is a solid TAG who hasn't really gotten out of line

I don't expect either of the cold callers to have a strong enough range in this spot to call my shove for half their stacks

So the only guy I believe I need to fold out is the original raiser and I expect the other two fall in line as well

I expect him to call with AK/QQ+

sometimes call and sometimes fold AQ/JJ

And fold AJ/TT and lower given there are two big stacks still to act behind him and my shove is half his stack

 

[Anthony Martino]

Also, to drop a little Doug Polk, 80% of the time I just call here, as I think there is value with the KJ suited four ways, even OOP

But 20% of the time I like squeezing here with the shove. The only player I expect to be able to call the shove is the original raiser. The other two are folding

 

[Mrs Poker Zombie]

Also, to drop a little Doug Polk, 80% of the time I just call here, as I think there is value with the KJ suited four ways, even OOP

But 20% of the time I like squeezing here with the shove. The only player I expect to be able to call the shove is the original raiser. The other two are folding

Why do you assume the other two are folding?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Why do you assume the other two are folding?

Because if they held hands strong enough to call my shove they would've reraised the original raiser in the first place. Their hand ranges are more polarized

 

[upNdown]

Fair enough. I’m only good at $100 daily donkfests

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I suck at tourneys. When I do play tourneys, most of the time they are low buyins with level 1 thinkers. In that situation, I'm flatting 100% of the time.

I understand the upside of a shove here - you've pretty much outlined the reasons already.

However, I have two big concerns:
1) With no history against EP, we have to assume that his opening range is very strong.
2) When you get a call, you're crushed. Against JJ+/AKo/AQs+, you've got 28%.

Unless I have a solid indicator that EP is getting out of line, my play would be call<fold<<<<<shove.

 

[Anthony Martino]

80% call
20% shove
0% fold as I'm getting like 7:1 to call

Also, openers range should be wider than JJ+/AK/AQs imo

I ranged him at 88+/AT+

The EP cold caller at 66+/KQs+

And the button as any pair/9Ts+

 

[MoscowRadio]

I have this weird feeling that if you shove, Tony G. will pop around the corner to berate you.

In all seriousness, I don’t like the idea of trying to get through three players, but I also don’t like the idea of playing this hand OOP with just a flat call. However, with the odds you’re getting I think call>raise>fold. Plus, you can close the pre-flop action here, check the flop, and see what everyone does.

I’m around 72.8% for calling and 27.2% for shoving. <Insert Phil Laak meme>.

 

[Poker Zombie]

The EP cold caller at 66+/KQs+

EP has your stack by ~2:1. I would not want to get into flips vs him when I have no knowledge of his play, as he can call your jam with less at risk.

My initial thought is to flat call, but position is my achilles heel. Given some thought I support defending the blind but would prefer the fold.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Also, openers range should be wider than JJ+/AK/AQs imo

Right - I didn't mean to imply that his opening range was that tight. The range I used was the range that you believe he calls your shove with.

Here's the math (Dr S will correct me if I'm wrong):
88+/AT+: 106 combos, and you've got 36.3% equity.
JJ+/AKo/AQs+: 44 combos, and you've got 28.2% equity.

If you're correct about his shove-calling range AND that the other villains fold 100% of the time, your shove has 58.5% fold equity (62 of 106 combos fold). You have 11.7% total equity against EP's calling range (28.2% equity * 41.5% of his opening range that calls).

With the assumptions you've made, your total equity with a shove here is 70.2%. However, those are a LOT of assumptions against an essentially unknown player. If your opening range is too wide, or your shove-calling range is too narrow, or both, you can easily dip into a situation where you're a dog. I also didn't consider ICM here at all, just pure equity based on your perceived ranges.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Without having been there and seeing the play its always a crap shoot to offer thoughts. But then that's what makes this fun.

I am calling for the reasons already stated. OOP but too good a price to fold. See the flop and go from there. I do not like a shove here. I think you are overstating the thought that you only have to get past the initial raiser because the other two callers will fold.

I can easily see one of the two original raise callers having monster hands and choosing not to reraise. This is a great way to get you to do exactly what you did. They know your chip stack size and how one round at the table puts you pretty low. Perfect place for a slow play. Certainly there is always risk with a multi player hand but they are in the money already. They stand to make a big haul in chips by slow playing here.

No way I am shoving in this scenario. I think you are at more risk than you think.

 

[Ben]

Buyin was $340, this is an event they hold a few times a year with a 40k guarantee. Four Day 1's with a final Day 2 to advance to

Day 2 started with 29 players but only 18 got paid. We were on the money bubble for over an hour before it broke

Had zero history with the original raiser, fisrt time we met was at final table and it's been under 10 hands

I like the jam. A tourney like this you have to take your edges when you can get them, and it's not often you get served up this good of a squeezing hand with 2 flat-callers and a pretty much optimum stack to squeeze given that situation. Yes there's risk, but there's also $14k up top and you're not likely to get it by waiting around trying to out-cooler everyone. The opener SHOULD be opening much wider than his calling range. I'm a little worried about one of the flatters showing up with AK but that's life.

I hate calling OOP with this hand in a tourney situation. Hate it. If I weren't shoving I still might do it, but it would be with gritted teeth.

 

[Trihonda]

My thoughts Call > Fold > Shove

I dont like a shove, in this exact situation as described. Against a late position opener yes, but EP raise has very real potential to have a monster (or at a minimum, you’re dominated). By shoving, you have to get through a potential monster, and two flat callers. Nope. If we had limpers, maybe shove/squeeze.

I think you’re priced in to call, evaluate. But keep in mind, you could very well be outgunned w/ RIO issues. I think I’m looking for this type of flop...




Or better yet,



What the hell does Doug Polk know anyway..

 

[GenghisKhan]

I feel like you are too likely to get at least 1 call here that covers your chips and your hand as well. I'd prefer calling.

If you hit you're golden. But if you don't you still have the opportunity to lay it down, wait for another hand, and perhaps make your way up the prize list if someone else gets knocked out.

 

[Jz44]

I'm in the the call>>shove>>>>>fold camp. I'm probably calling and evaluating on the flop at game speed. I'm not going to be happy about it though, and would have to hit the flop pretty hard to continue after that being oop with a hand that has a ton of rio. Folding feels way to nitty getting 7.5 to 1. I like the squeeze, but I'm generally looking for a squeeze spot against 1 caller instead of 2. Like Schmendr1ck said, it might be a +EV spot, but I'd be pretty interested to see the ICM implications of the move.

 

[dickzapper]

I like the shove there considering the money ladder pressure. But seasoned tourney players would probably not hesitate to call there with AQ or pairs of 7's+. And getting called when you're oop will be painful for that hand. Perhaps table image would be a major factor in this spot.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I like the shove there considering the money ladder pressure. But seasoned tourney players would probably not hesitate to call there with AQ or pairs of 7's+.

I'm ok with a flip or 60/40 spot with dead money in the pot and a chance to become chip leader

And getting called when you're oop will be painful for that hand.

I shoved all-in, my being OOP no longer matters if I'm called

 

[Ben]

You're not getting called by 77. Obviously it's a good squeeze spot and that should be taken into consideration by villains, but the size of the shove is quite significant. JJ should snap call, probably AQs as well. TT and AQo have a tough decision. 99- should be folding.

 

[CraigT78]

Alright - so what did you do and what did you lose too?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Alright - so what did you do and what did you lose too?

Lol. I shoved, original raiser reshoved, EP folded, button shouted FUCK! and folded and I was up against AK

 

[CraigT78]

Lol. I shoved, original raiser reshoved, EP folded, button shouted FUCK! and folded and I was up against AK

Poker Sorry.