Does anyone find a fold here? (1 Viewer)

[Trihonda]

I’m playing an annual food drive tourney I organized. 3 tables. $60. 16k stacks. Blinds 25/50.

In the THIRD hand, I’m on the button with ... Couple limpers, but most everyone folds. I raise to 200, guy in MP is the only caller. I don’t know much about MP.

Flop is MP checks. I c-bet for 350, MP makes the call.

Turn is which gives me the nut flush redraw. It’s checked to me, I lead out for 600 and MP C/Rs to 1200.

I 3-bet to 3k... MP shoves all in for his remaining 14k.... he has me slightly covered...

Do you fold or fist pump?

Spoiler: Results

I call with a sinking feeling I was going to lose the hand... MP turns over and I don’t improve. Most of my regs insist there’s no getting away from that, and if you’re folding the 2nd nuts with a nutted redraw, that it’s a losing play in the long run. That’s actually my stance (which is why I made the call), but a couple folks voiced that they might have found the fold (considering how deep we were, and that it was the third hand). Just curious what others thought

 

[CraigT78]

If after 30 minutes you can’t find the donkey at the table........

Spoiler: Spoiler

I call here every time

 

[Trihonda]

If after 30 minutes you can’t find the donkey at the table........

Spoiler: Spoiler

I call here every time

3 hands in,,. I only had 5 minutes maybe...

 

[upNdown]

There’s no fold to be found.
When you said 3rd hand in the tournament, I was confident I’d find a fold. Nope.

 

[Rhodeman77]

You can’t win a tournament in the 3rd hand, but you can go broke!

I’m not folding. Too many sets, 2 pair and combo hands possible and even other A4 hands that you are now free rolling to fold.

And obviously this villain is pretty loose to call a raise with 46 off suite so you can’t say this is some nit that only plays the nuts that you can fold to when they raise.

 

[derekdd23]

Cant fold that ever even with a reliable tell.

 

[upNdown]

I could strangle the guy with his stupid 46o.
Limped with it from middle position, then threw ANOTHER 3bb at it? It’s just so frustrating to see that rewarded:

 

[Chris Manzoni]

It took me a long long time to learn that if I am super deep in a tournament (as everyone is here, 300+ big blinds) there is no reason to put all of my chips into the middle hardly ever unless I happen to be calling off with the absolute stone cold nuts. I am never going to be betting with my entire stack for value, except possibly on the river if there's been a ton of action.

You are starting the tournament with over 300 big blinds, there is zero logical reason for anyone to be pushing their entire stack into the middle on the flop, even as a five bet. His re-re-raise shove is terrible, he goes from what should be a value bet for around 80 big blinds to a full 300+. I don't even want to begin to ponder what his 'thinking' is here, really he is only shoving for a chop here, or perhaps the exact cards that you happened to have. Not a good value bet plan. Does he think you will call a massive over bet 3 hands into the tournament with a set? Two pair? TPTK? His bet is wonky, so I'm pegging him as a fish - and almost all fish don't bluff with over-bets. They look at their own hand, see they have the nuts and shove with no regard for actually getting value.

I wouldn't beat yourself up for making the call, any one of us including myself might have done the same in the heat of the moment; but if we are all being honest with ourselves as poker players, it's important to look at the big picture - stack depth, where we are in the tournament, and what's a good value bet and what's a fishy shove with the nuts with almost a zero chance of getting paid. On the other side of the coin, he's never bluffing here, because it's a terrible bluff in that he's only getting called by something that beats him for all of his chips. If he is bluffing he is beyond being just a fish, he's someone who has likely never played before or is a massive whale to whom money has no meaning and he likes doing crazy things for his own amusement.

 

[Trihonda]

I could strangle the guy with his stupid 46o.
Limped with it from middle position, then threw ANOTHER 3bb at it? It’s just so frustrating to see that rewarded:

And being so deep, to shove his entire stack on me in the third hand, lol.

 

[BGinGA]

As played, not folding. But probably not re-raising his min-check-raise on the turn, either -- his bet reeks of strength. Flat call, see what happens on the river; it's the far safer move for Hand #3 of a (usually) long event.

You can’t win a tournament in the 3rd hand, but you can go broke!

^This. Protect against it. 3-betting the turn was where the error was made, not calling all-in.

 

[joeyshin]

Sooo

Flop 2nd nuts with redraw to nuts?

No one fold this

 

[RowdyRawhide]

I pretty much play it the same as you until here:


"I 3-bet to 3k"

if he shoves when I check here then I'm pretty sure I can lay it down....but its close.

 

[joeyshin]

pretty relevant

gus hansen at 4:56

 

[ilovegravy]

I call so fast my chips light a fire on the way into the middle of the table. Some of you are really folding the second nuts (second only to 6-4) with 9 outs to the nut flush? If you lose to a guy with 6-4 that's just a cooler.

 

[Shaggy]

I have played with some real donkeys in charity tournaments. I can see two pair and sets jamming here all day.

 

[upNdown]

pretty relevant

gus hansen at 4:56

Well said, Gus.

 

[DrStrange]

Please don't show the results and expect a good & reasoned discussion. It is oh-so-easy to make the "right" decision when someone already knows what actually happened. I somehow expect a totally different set of responses would come from a "what should hero do" thread vs an " anyone find a fold" thread.

Holding the second nut + redraw vs unknowns in a tournament seems like a bad place to be finding a fold. This is a $60 charity event, not a table filled with top pros.

It is the third hand, no one knows anything about the people playing. So, Hero could be so afraid of the nuts lurking that he folds. Or Hero is facing a FOS villain / a weak player grossly over valuing an over-pair / a villain who is applying aggression knowing no one wants to bust on the first orbit.

Me? I think hero's equity is huge vs villain's range. Worst case villain holds 64 and Hero has nine outs to a flush plus two more for a chop - lets call that 22% equity Hero owes ~10,000 to win ~27,000. Even the worst case isn't a total disaster . . . . . just a major mishap.

But villain's range isn't just the nuts. It is filled with all sorts of dubious holdings and misguided hands. Lots of times villain is drawing dead with a pair or a flush draw., some times villain has a set or two pair with some chances. Rarely villain also holds A4 and is getting free-rolled.

I am not ever folding here. It feels more like fist pumping time than folding time. I think hero has something like 80%+ equity in this spot.

DrStrange

 

[joeyshin]

^^^^^^^ Exactly

Any one who says they can find a fold here, please invite me to your game. I'll 3-4-5-bet you til you never see a river card again

 

[Tsarbomba]

Im not folding. Guy probably has pocket K's. River should be exciting!

 

[JustinInMN]

No fold here, if he has 64, he can have 54, k5, 53, 55, 33 and maybe bluffs too. If you think folding to a shove could be right here then 3 betting the turn is a mistake as @BGinGA said. Flat the raise and hold the river, only move in if you make the flush.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Just call his check raise on the turn. If the river pairs the board, you can lay it down. If it brings the diamond or a 6, exclaim "AK no good!" while overbetting the pot. If it brings a blank, put in a big raise and pay him off. He's going to show you a flopped set far more often here than 46o.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Not folding. Lots of hands he could have played this way besides 6 4. How about K and 2/3/5? Small pocket pair that made a set and he slowed played the flop. Or same hand has hero. If he really has 6 4 then you still have the nine diamonds for the nuts or the other three 6s for a chop.

Needed to ask yourself before the 3-bet if 6 4 was a real possibility and if you felt so then just call his check raise. If river comes a diamond you are golden. If its not then you can decide how to proceed based upon his river bet. If he checks then I would check as its unlikely he does anything other than fold to your bet or raise big which puts you back in the same boat. If he bets you can make your decision based upon the size of his bet.

But as you played it I am calling the all in. Key here being its a charity tournament and you have no intel on the villain. He could easily be over estimating the value of his hand. If he has the nuts you still have a 24% chance to come out ok on the river.

 

[Trihonda]

Ya, in retrospect, I like flatting the C/R. My thinking at the time was I wanted to realize my flush draw equity. I figured that if the diamond peeled, I wasn't going to get paid. I wanted to build the pot. I actually thought I was ahead (obv), with a redraw. The only thing I was really concerned with was the board potentially pairing. I didn't really range him on 64o do to my raise pre. Thus, I had the essential nutz (in my mind).

For the record, I don't know much about this player, but he has the potential to be a decent player (apparently). The weekend prior, he bagged Day 1 of a 1k MSPT main event, and I believe cashed on D2. 64o? ok...

 

[Ronoh]

Think my record for consecutive flops seen at the start of a tournament in a meetup tournament that I’ve won is 21. Ive never been able to understand the reaction of “I don’t know how he calls with (whatever)” when the call represents less than 1% of his stack.

Shrug.

 

[JustinInMN]

Ya, in retrospect, I like flatting the C/R. My thinking at the time was I wanted to realize my flush draw equity. I figured that if the diamond peeled, I wasn't going to get paid. I wanted to build the pot. I actually thought I was ahead (obv), with a redraw. The only thing I was really concerned with was the board potentially pairing. I didn't really range him on 64o do to my raise pre. Thus, I had the essential nutz (in my mind).

This makes sense to me, but it's argument for the 3 bet planning to call line, if you think he has hohdings weak enough for a diamond to scare.

And you certainly have the nuts in this sense. If you are never raising 64 preflop ad-4d is the best hand you will ever have as played. If you fold here you are going to be pushed around too often.

So of what's discussed here's my ranking.
1) 3bet plan to call a shove.
2) Call check raise see river.
Distant 3rd) 3 bet planning to fold to a shove.

It just illustrates the importance of having a plan whenever you raise. As the old saying goes in no limit sometimes tbe target shoots back.

And there's nothing wrong with having hands to 3 bet fold, but those should not be your best possible hands. (I might 3 bet fold 22 or 33 depending on the player, for example, but a4 with a flush draw is too good.)