Do you raise this river? (2 Viewers)

boltonguy

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Ignition Hand #4076223985 Zone Poker ID#1692 HOLDEMZonePoker No Limit [MVS] - 2021-02-19 21:09:51 UTC
Table Info: Version: 1, Type: MVS, Stakes: $0.10-$0.25, Table: 0073063A-0
Seat 1: Small Blind ($40.23 in chips)
Seat 2: Big Blind ($25.55 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG [ME] ($28.15 in chips)

Seat 4: UTG+1 ($22.26 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG+2 ($24.79 in chips)
Seat 6: Dealer ($32.31 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
UTG [ME] : Card dealt to a spot :qs::qh:
UTG [ME] : Raises $0.75 to $0.75

UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
Dealer : Folds
Small Blind : Folds
Big Blind : Calls $0.50
Pot is $1.60

*** FLOP *** :2d::6c::9c:
Big Blind : Bets $1.25
UTG [ME] : Calls $1.25
Pot is $4.10

*** TURN *** :2d::6c::9c::4d:
Big Blind : Bets $1
UTG [ME] : Calls $1
Pot is $6.10

*** RIVER *** :2d::6c::9c::4d::ad:
Big Blind : Checks

Hero?
 
do you mean bet? eh, no. i usually check behind here expecting to scoop. if he hit, you have to fear the check/raise. if he missed, he's gonna fold anyway.
 
As played, check back the river. Way too many potential hands came in on that river to value-bet QQ, and there doesn't seem to be much point in trying to bluff. On the odd chance Villain has KK, you could push him off of it, but other hands that beat you are probably calling.

Going back to earlier plays, I'm not sure why you've taken a passive line on the flop and turn. A raise on the flop would be good, or at least the turn. You have an overpair on a semi-coordinated board and not much reason to believe Villain is particularly strong. Why are you only calling on those streets?
 
As played, check back the river. Way too many potential hands came in on that river to value-bet QQ, and there doesn't seem to be much point in trying to bluff. On the odd chance Villain has KK, you could push him off of it, but other hands that beat you are probably calling.

Going back to earlier plays, I'm not sure why you've taken a passive line on the flop and turn. A raise on the flop would be good, or at least the turn. You have an overpair on a semi-coordinated board and not much reason to believe Villain is particularly strong. Why are you only calling on those streets?
This

To me the issue is on the turn. Villian led $1 into a $4.10 pot which looks like a blocking bet for him to draw cheaply. I'd pump that up to $5.

The flop is $1.25 bet into $1.60 pot which is reasonable. I just roll along with that.
 
This

To me the issue is on the turn. Villian led $1 into a $4.10 pot which looks like a blocking bet for him to draw cheaply. I'd pump that up to $5.

The flop is $1.25 bet into $1.60 pot which is reasonable. I just roll along with that.
Yeah, I could justify the flop call as being for pot control. But on the turn a whole new slew of draws come in, Villain seems especially weak, and it's a good spot to raise to give Hero options on the river (by inducing a check).
 
As played, you should have raised the flop and the turn, although raising the flop may have changed the action on the turn, but as played, you missed what should have been 2 very easy raises. On the river, just check it back.

Highly skilled players can value bet the river in certain situations, like when they have a strong good read on their opponent and they know he'll pay them off with a lower pair and isn't likely to check-raise bluff, but those circumstances are somewhat rare and probably not worth considering in your case. If you can't find the raise on the flop and the turn here, then a river bet on this board shouldn't be in your toolbox.
 
As played, you should have raised the flop and the turn, although raising the flop may have changed the action on the turn, but as played, you missed what should have been 2 very easy raises. On the river, just check it back.

Highly skilled players can value bet the river in certain situations, like when they have a strong good read on their opponent and they know he'll pay them off with a lower pair and isn't likely to check-raise bluff, but those circumstances are somewhat rare and probably not worth considering in your case. If you can't find the raise on the flop and the turn here, then a river bet on this board shouldn't be in your toolbox.
This.

Missed 2 raises on the flop and the turn and now given the situation I check the river. You're only getting check raised by a better hand and you're probably only getting a call from an Ace. otherwise he has air and is probably folding anyway.

Maybe he calls light with a 9? But you have almost no information given the previous calls.
 
As played, I am only betting this river if I am pretty sure villain is weak enough to call with a 9, and even A9 is bad now. In a live game with identifiable opponents, I will occasionally go for this exploit.

In an anonymous game, I don't think that read is there and it's a check behind.

As @jpietrella, @RainmanTrail, and others have pointed out. There is no way checking flop and turn is optimal in an anonymous game. Missing chance to get value from 9x and draws, and you should especially be charging the overcards to draw as well. QQ is a very good hand, but distantly behind KK and AA in terms of vulnerability to bad run outs.
 
I agree with these guys, raise his bet after the flop. Big blind probably has a wide range so you need information as soon as possible.
 
As villain played it it sure smells like a busted flush draw. Could be an Ax club draw but doesn't feel like it. A bet targets a non-ace paired draw. If you bet you need a plan for the over jam.

I probably check behind.
 
As villain played it it sure smells like a busted flush draw. Could be an Ax club draw but doesn't feel like it. A bet targets a non-ace paired draw. If you bet you need a plan for the over jam.

I probably check behind.

Could be, but more likely it's just something like 9T, J9s, K9s, something like that. If it was a busted draw, he probably is more likely to bluff again on the river.
 
I guess he could have A6 or A9. Can't imagine a flush or a straight. Problem is his range is very wide because he was not raised, and so you don't know if he was strong. I probably would have value bet because I'm dumb, but I think people have it right here, check is the correct play I guess.
 
Hero checked and villain showed :8h::5h:. I was not concerned with the BDFD coming in but V calling with a set (unlikely given the turn bet sizing imho) or Ax of clubs.
I appreciate the comments on flop and turn - both are 'correct' GTO plays based on PokerSnowie analysis.
With no reads I am biased towards GTO play. I think the risk of the raise is that it folds weaker hands that may continue betting on the river. Unfortunately for us diamonds came in and killed the action.

1613791459344.png
 
Raising flop is actually -EV according to snowie. Villain's donk lead is large with a FD on the board and he has all the sets in his range. We don't have the nuts or the nut advantage with our range on this board so calling is the +EV play

1613791862390.png
 
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Hero checked and villain showed :8h::5h:. I was not concerned with the BDFD coming in but V calling with a set (unlikely given the turn bet sizing imho) or Ax of clubs.
I appreciate the comments on flop and turn - both are 'correct' GTO plays based on PokerSnowie analysis.
With no reads I am biased towards GTO play. I think the risk of the raise is that it folds weaker hands that may continue betting on the river. Unfortunately for us diamonds came in and killed the action.
Raising flop is actually -EV according to snowie. Villain's donk lead is large with a FD on the board and he has all the sets in his range. We don't have the nuts or the nut advantage with our range on this board so calling is the +EV play

Something worth keeping in mind is exploitative play vs GTO play. If I were playing against a strong opponent here, I would also flat behind on the flop and turn because they're more capable of playing somewhat trappy (e.g., leading with a set into the pre-flop raiser hoping to get raised). But if I'm playing against weaker players who generally donk bet scared pair type holdings or semi-bluff draws, then I will lean toward the raise to exploit their mistakes. But it's definitely not a terrible play to flat behind with a hand like QQ for the reasons you mentioned (if they're bluffing, let them continue to bet when they'd otherwise fold to a raise). It also limits our loss potential with a one pair holding.

That said, this is a 10¢ 25¢ game. I'm pretty much raising every time in this game unless my opponents prove themselves to be strong players (in which case I would ask myself, why are they playing microstakes?).
 
I don’t use Snowie but looks like the bet sizes entered should be .25 pot and .5 or 1 pot on the flop and turn respectively.
 
Well I always wanted to get into solvers so I just D/Led GTO+
It looks like QQ is being raised here a small % of the time on the flop. The biggest difference between this solution and Snowie is I have given BB a fairly wide calling range based on my experience in this game and Snowie gives BB a very tight calling range consisting mostly of PP:

1613832773706.png


Snowie's BB range is much tighter than the pool IMHO
1613832895448.png
 
Solver has V bombing river with all combos of missed draws.
We check 100% of the time on the river when checked to.

1613833328421.png


1613833384141.png
 
Interestingly Villain only has 3 pure river checks: A5cc, A3cc and KJcc
Just under half of his river checks do have SDV with Ax

1613834028627.png
 
True, but again, the solver might treat the turn differently if the flop action was different.
 
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It depends a lot on the ranges we assign to Villain (which may be obvious). The narrower V's range the less we are raising flop (because all BB ranges have nut advantage on this flop, but wider BB ranges dilute the number of nut combos vs total combos as total combos increases adding suited connectors and gappers. The wider V's range the more raising flop at a small % becomes an option in the solver.

Here (and in my observation the pool generally) plays much wider BB ranges even calling a 3BB open from UTG (6max), so there is a small % flop raise with QQ in the solver. 15% with our specific combo and the wider range that I entered.

1613837831770.png
 
You need to adjust villains ranges here. The snowie ranges are clearly laughable, so the results pretty much don't apply at all. Villain had 85s yet you're "solving" for him only having pocket pairs and big slick lol.

Check out PIO solver too.
 

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