Do I call on the river here? (1 Viewer)

boltonguy

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Using Snowie to practice 6-max cash and bringing in Flopzilla to help in "tough" spots.

Here is a spot on the river where I think I have the odds to call but wanted to get feedback:

Hero opens :kh::qc: 3BB in UTG. Folds to BB who flats.
Flop is :8h::qs::ah:. BB checks, Hero bets 1/4 pot. Villain calls.
Turn is :4d:. BB checks, Hero checks.
River is :8s:. Villain leads for pot.

Hero is getting 2:1 odds on Villain's pot sized lead so needs to be good here >33% of the time to call (I think).
Villain's bluffs are missed flush draws [many suited combos in BB's defending range] and maybe missed gutshot [JT/JK which we block]. Maybe 112/4 = 28 combos - I cant do this in my head had to do it in Flopzilla. Villain's value hands are A2s - ATs (8 x 4=32) with and A7o - ATo, A5o (5 x 12=60) for 92 value combos.
So about 3:1 value to bluff.

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Starting with a BB defend range and applying flop & turn filters for anything decent, Flopzilla shows our hand is best 41% of the time on the river vs Villain's range + filters. If we need to be good here >33% of the time I think this is a call. In reality I would likely fold to this bet.

I cant do all this in my head - does anyone have a good way of determining if this is a call or fold?
Mostly in flow I would think: V has lots of AXs in range both suited and unsuited and these combos outweigh the number of hearts/gutshot. Pot is a strong size and Villain isnt afraid of me having a strong Ace (I did check turn which tells him I'm weak). So I would probably fold in a 6-max anonymous fast fold game.

In Snowie I called after doing the work with Flopzilla to calc my equity which was correct GTO and Villain had :5h::6h:. So the math works but I cant do this math in my head at the table - anyone have any tricks?

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Granted I am not used to 6 max, but let's be real here. You don't have top pair, the board paired, and you only got about 5 or 6 BB invested in this pot. I understand your motivating reasons to call, but there has to be better places to "put up that fight" than this. I fold.
 
Granted I am not used to 6 max, but let's be real here. You don't have top pair, the board paired, and you only got about 5 or 6 BB invested in this pot. I understand your motivating reasons to call, but there has to be better places to "put up that fight" than this. I fold.
+1. Regardless of all the analysis, this feels like a semi-simple "live to fight another day situation." I think you have to be good here 50% of the time to call, and it feels like that's not gonna be the case most of the time.
 
Interesting - put the same hand in the "scenario" section of snowie and it is a mix 90% fold / 10% call

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+1. Regardless of all the analysis, this feels like a semi-simple "live to fight another day situation." I think you have to be good here 50% of the time to call, and it feels like that's not gonna be the case most of the time.

I agree with both of you - I would fold in the game. It was interesting that the math is a call.
Trying to learn more math ... :)
 
I believe if you know BB is an agro player you should call because you checked the turn he knows you don't have an ace. If BB is nitty I would fold to his 90% weak suited Ace.
 
You are blocking the best flush draws. And the weaker ones would probably x/r flop. I feel like this would lean my toward a fold. He can have a lot of 8s that may have peeled here for the small bet.

This flop texture isn't super dry and you hold a big range and nut advantage here. You can have all the sets and top 2 and he can't have AA or QQ, and the amount of AQ he has is less too assuming it's 3 bet sometimes. Given all this, I think you should bet larger on this flop. And I kinda feel you should still bet turn with some frequency too.

All that said, he seems way more weighted to Ax or 8x than a bluff. But it is the micros, and people do just click buttons.
 
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You are blocking the best flush draws. And the weaker ones would probably x/r flop. I feel like this would lean my toward a fold. He can have a lot of 8s that may have peeled here for the small bet.

This flop texture isn't super dry and you hold a big range and nut advantage here. You can have all the sets and top 2 and he can't have AA or QQ, and the amount of AQ he has is it's too assuming it's 3 bet sometimes. Given all this, I think you should bet larger on this flop. And I kinda feel you should still bet turn with some frequency too.

All that said, he seems way more weighted to Ax or 8x than a bluff. But it is the micros, and people do just click buttons.
This - "You are blocking the best flush draws."

The fact you are holding the Kh is the decider for me. It eliminates quite a few flush draws that big blind might be playing which makes this a fold.
 
If I don't know the player for whatever reason, I'm almost always folding here. A randomly selected player from any large pool is going to have an ace or better the vast majority of the time. Same goes for any player that I know to be tight/straightforward, or who rarely if ever bluffs the river.

Where this hand gains value is against someone who plays loose and likes to bluff the river when he misses. Against that type of opponent, it's a pretty bread-and-butter bluff-catcher.

The analysis you propose about busted draw combos has some good insight into why. Wet flop, all the draws missed, and the action practically begs Villain to steal. The river bet reeks of a bluff, but only if it's the type of player who does that. Otherwise it reeks of a value bet that almost always beats second pair.
 
The hand was played against PokerSnowie - the ultimately balanced GTO AI bot so probably half the time he has it, half the time she's bluffing a missed FD.
In a real game, I'm folding here against an anonymous opponent and only calling with a read.

I was more wondering if anyone has a technique to calculate our equity here against villain's range and actions. I know I need > 33% to call against a perfectly balanced opponent given the pot-sized bet (2:1 = >33% equity to call) but needed to use flopzilla to calculate my equity. I have no outs as there are no cards to come so its not as simple as outs x2 or outs x 4. Villain has lots of Ax suited and unsuited in range that gets to the river but also a decent number of hearts that missed the FD.

Wondering if there is any trick to calculate my equity because I cant install flopzilla in my brain
 
The hand was played against PokerSnowie - the ultimately balanced GTO AI bot so probably half the time he has it, half the time she's bluffing a missed FD.
In a real game, I'm folding here against an anonymous opponent and only calling with a read.

I was more wondering if anyone has a technique to calculate our equity here against villain's range and actions. I know I need > 33% to call against a perfectly balanced opponent given the pot-sized bet (2:1 = >33% equity to call) but needed to use flopzilla to calculate my equity. I have no outs as there are no cards to come so its not as simple as outs x2 or outs x 4. Villain has lots of Ax suited and unsuited in range that gets to the river but also a decent number of hearts that missed the FD.

Wondering if there is any trick to calculate my equity because I cant install flopzilla in my brain
There is no easy way. You'd have to know the entire range that is played this way on this board and know the frequencies that those hands that get here bet pot as a bluff vs value. The best you can do is figure out your entire range that gets here and decide how many hands and what hands you should call with to stay balanced given your line.
 
If I am in a bluff catching situation I usually let my distribution on the river be my guide. what other hands can I have here given my line and is KQ high enough to protect.

A GTO optimal bot is probably bluffing exactly 33% of the time since it is laykng 2:1.

Now if you only consider preflop ranges, hero can have all the aces, all the aces up and the big sets as well as the actual hand and maybe QJ.

The check on the turn is interesting. I doubt hero is doing that with the one pair aces hands, at least the better ones like AK or AJ. Maybe hero is checking the turn with the two pair plus monsters, but maybe not.

If not then KQ may actually be pretty high in hero's distribution for the pfr raise, bet, check, check line. If hero can do this with some Ax one pair hands, or some monsters, then it's nokay to fold this and defend with hands that can beat more bluffs.

It's really a tweener spot to me, without using the bots, I wouldn't fault either play that much.

Just a situation where you can honestly evaluate your own range.
 
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I agree with both of you - I would fold in the game. It was interesting that the math is a call.
Trying to learn more math ... :)

And that is beauty of the game, the math can only take you so far.
 
Fold, I am not even sure about the 1/4th pot flop bet with middle pair.
 
Here is a spot on the river where I think I have the odds to call but wanted to get feedback:

Hero opens :kh::qc: 3BB in UTG. Folds to BB who flats.
Flop is :8h::qs::ah:. BB checks, Hero bets 1/4 pot. Villain calls.
Turn is :4d:. BB checks, Hero checks.
River is :8s:. Villain leads for pot.
After first reading this, the combination of the 1/4 lead on the flop plus the check on the turn felt more like an 8 or a flush draw than top pair or better. Definitely a polarizing bet on the river. Not sure opponent has an A on the river, as they might have bet the turn. I was leaning call after I read this and thought it through.

If you want better feedback, it's probably better to not post the results of the hand yet -- wait until after people have commented. Once you reads the results it's often hard to 'unlearn' what you know.
 
FWIW, if villain has Ax here, I think your check on the turn makes it unlikely that you have AK or AQ. I think I would totally make that same value river bet if I knew the worst I could do was chop with hero here. If flop or turn played differently, or I had some other major info about the villain's tendencies, maybe this is a more difficult decision but to me it just screams fold.
 
So what hands do you raise pre, bet flop, and check turn?

Lets assume your raise pre and bet flop range is this: AA, QQ, AQ, A8, AK, AJ, AT, A9, A7, KQ, QJ
What are hands above are you betting on the turn, which hands are you checking?

What @Legend5555 is trying to say is you need to determine where you are in your distribution at the end given the line you took in the hand (pre flop raise, flop bet, turn check)

If you are betting all aces on the turn, then KQ is probably the best possible hand you can have in this situation and is probably your best protection against bluffs. The problem is if your strategy is to bet all aces on the turn, you are at a range disadvantage on the river when after checking the turn, unless you balance that by checking some of your monsters, or even just checking some of the more troublesome aces that may not be as good for value (AT, A9, or A7).

But to protect against a perfect bluffing strategy, if you think yours and villain's ranges are about even you should call with the best fraction of your holdings. (Would that fraction be 33% or would it be more factoring in pot odds?) If you have a range advantage, you can call more widely (or even put in some raises), if you are at a disadvantage, you should call with less of your range.

I think the question of what hands you check on the turn reveals where in your distribution you are on the river with KQ and whether or not villain has a range advantage over you.
 
I call for sure. Villain betting full pot sizing on the river is extremely suspicious. Either an A or 8 would likely size down to get called. Q would check or maybe ultra thin value bet small. All the flushes missed. All the weird broadway gutters missed. Not to mention you showed huge weakness on the turn. Makes sense he'd take a stab at a bluff with air.
 
I know that GTO and making decisions based on math is the cool thing nowadays, but what did your gut tell you to do? Seems as though your instinct smelt that something was fishy, so you made the call — and the right one, at that!
 

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