The following is my interpretation of an upcoming local casino promotion. If you find an error, omission or other obvious mistake, please do let me know. I feel pretty confident the marketing department didn't think this one through.
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Beginning at 10:00 on October 27, patrons may earn raffle entries for the *** promotion on each table game as follows:
* a natural on Blackjack
* a winning Hardway bet on Craps
* a winning straight-up bet on Roulette
* a hand with Jacks or better on Mississippi Stud
* a hand that receives an Ante Bonus on Three Card Poker
* a hand with a straight or better on Ultimate Texas Hold 'em
Throughout the day, entries will be collected by table games supervisors and placed in a large raffle drum. Every hour, five (5) entries will be drawn (18:30, 19:30, 20:30, 21:30 and 22:30). One (1) 'grand-prize' entry will be drawn at 23:30.
A patron whose entry is drawn from 18:30 to 22:30 will randomly select one of thirty-six (1 of 36) envelopes containing a pre-determined amount of cash. The patron whose entry is drawn at 23:30 will collect the six (6) remaining envelopes.
As I understand, a patron is not limited to one winning entry.
There are fourteen (14) envelopes containing $100; eleven (11) containing $150; six (6) containing $250; four (4) containing $500; and one (1) containing $1,000. A total of $7,550 will be awarded.
Envelopes contain an average prize of $209.72.
So, obtaining an entry for less than the average prize amount should be considered a 'good bet' even when there is no guarantee it will be selected.
For example:
If there were only thirty-six (36) entries, each entry would be worth $209.72 as each be a guaranteed winner ( 7550 / 36 = $209.72 ). Should there be thirty-seven (37) entries, each entry would be worth $204.05. At one-hundred (100) entries, each entry would be worth $75.50, etc.
Keep in mind, the minimum wager on each of these games will be five-dollars ($5). Therefore, a five-dollar blackjack which is already being paid three-to-two will also earn the patron an entry valued at (x). Even if there were seven-thousand-five-hundred-and-fifty (7,550) entries, this would put the monetary value of each entry at $1. On the above-referenced five-dollar blackjack, the patron is receiving a twenty-percent bonus - so to speak. That's incredible.
While every table game will offer this 'bonus', only one of them can and should be expolited during this promotion.
By simply placing a one-dollar ($1) wager on every single number (0, 00 and 1 through 36), the patron is guaranteed to earn an entry on each spin. The downside being that doing so will result in a two-dollar ($2) loss per spin. Still, a nominal fee to earn an entry.
In other words, there would need to be three-thousand-seven-hundred-and-seventy-six entries for this approach to have negative expected value. Based on previous like promotions, there will probably be a "few hundred", perhaps three-hundred (300) entries.
Should a patron be able to collect even one-hundred (100) entries throughout the day, they would give themselves a one-in-four chance at positive expectation. More likely, they will be selected six-to-seven times throughout the promotion.
Using the numbers referenced above, a patron with twenty-five percent (25%) of the entries at a cost of two-dollars ($2) each would expect to net eleven-hundred-sixty-three dollars ($1,163.18).
**(26 / 4) x ($209.72) - ($200) = $1,162.18**
The only forseeable, yet improbable risk is that the casino staff 'catch-on' to a patron gaming the promotion and either close the game and/or ask them to leave. However, given the fact that the patron is indeed losing every spin without a guarantee of their entry being selected, either scenario seems extremely unlikely. There is also little to no chance for the casino to change the promotion rules mid-contest.
Am I missing something? ...and no, I don't believe any other patron(s) will understand the advantageous situation before them.
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Beginning at 10:00 on October 27, patrons may earn raffle entries for the *** promotion on each table game as follows:
* a natural on Blackjack
* a winning Hardway bet on Craps
* a winning straight-up bet on Roulette
* a hand with Jacks or better on Mississippi Stud
* a hand that receives an Ante Bonus on Three Card Poker
* a hand with a straight or better on Ultimate Texas Hold 'em
Throughout the day, entries will be collected by table games supervisors and placed in a large raffle drum. Every hour, five (5) entries will be drawn (18:30, 19:30, 20:30, 21:30 and 22:30). One (1) 'grand-prize' entry will be drawn at 23:30.
A patron whose entry is drawn from 18:30 to 22:30 will randomly select one of thirty-six (1 of 36) envelopes containing a pre-determined amount of cash. The patron whose entry is drawn at 23:30 will collect the six (6) remaining envelopes.
As I understand, a patron is not limited to one winning entry.
There are fourteen (14) envelopes containing $100; eleven (11) containing $150; six (6) containing $250; four (4) containing $500; and one (1) containing $1,000. A total of $7,550 will be awarded.
Envelopes contain an average prize of $209.72.
So, obtaining an entry for less than the average prize amount should be considered a 'good bet' even when there is no guarantee it will be selected.
For example:
If there were only thirty-six (36) entries, each entry would be worth $209.72 as each be a guaranteed winner ( 7550 / 36 = $209.72 ). Should there be thirty-seven (37) entries, each entry would be worth $204.05. At one-hundred (100) entries, each entry would be worth $75.50, etc.
Keep in mind, the minimum wager on each of these games will be five-dollars ($5). Therefore, a five-dollar blackjack which is already being paid three-to-two will also earn the patron an entry valued at (x). Even if there were seven-thousand-five-hundred-and-fifty (7,550) entries, this would put the monetary value of each entry at $1. On the above-referenced five-dollar blackjack, the patron is receiving a twenty-percent bonus - so to speak. That's incredible.
While every table game will offer this 'bonus', only one of them can and should be expolited during this promotion.
By simply placing a one-dollar ($1) wager on every single number (0, 00 and 1 through 36), the patron is guaranteed to earn an entry on each spin. The downside being that doing so will result in a two-dollar ($2) loss per spin. Still, a nominal fee to earn an entry.
In other words, there would need to be three-thousand-seven-hundred-and-seventy-six entries for this approach to have negative expected value. Based on previous like promotions, there will probably be a "few hundred", perhaps three-hundred (300) entries.
Should a patron be able to collect even one-hundred (100) entries throughout the day, they would give themselves a one-in-four chance at positive expectation. More likely, they will be selected six-to-seven times throughout the promotion.
Using the numbers referenced above, a patron with twenty-five percent (25%) of the entries at a cost of two-dollars ($2) each would expect to net eleven-hundred-sixty-three dollars ($1,163.18).
**(26 / 4) x ($209.72) - ($200) = $1,162.18**
The only forseeable, yet improbable risk is that the casino staff 'catch-on' to a patron gaming the promotion and either close the game and/or ask them to leave. However, given the fact that the patron is indeed losing every spin without a guarantee of their entry being selected, either scenario seems extremely unlikely. There is also little to no chance for the casino to change the promotion rules mid-contest.
Am I missing something? ...and no, I don't believe any other patron(s) will understand the advantageous situation before them.
