Tourney Big Blinds to Estimate Tournament End? (1 Viewer)

[justsomedude]

Is there a rule of thumb or "ballpark" number of big blinds remaining to calculate/estimate when a tournament should end?

For example, say you have 25 players that each start with 10,000 chips. That's 250,000 chips in play. Assuming the tournament starts at 25/50 with blinds increasing at a "normal" rate, when should the tournament end?

With 100BBs? 80BBs? 60BBs in play?

 

[inca911]

A good rule of thumb is when the big blind + small blind is ~80% the size of the starting stack. For example, at a starting stack of 15k, the 4000/8000 level is likely the tourney end. Naturally the player types will influence this general guideline.

 

[justsomedude]

A good rule of thumb is when the big blind + small blind is ~80% the size of the starting stack. For example, at a starting stack of 15k, the 4000/8000 level is likely the tourney end. Naturally the player types will influence this general guideline.

This is exactly what I was looking for... thanks, Forrest!!! (y) :thumbsupy) :thumbsupy) :thumbsup:

 

[inca911]

For 1-2 tables, my experience is this is reasonably close. For more tables, I'm not sure if another metric is better.

 

[WedgeRock]

@inca911's formula doesn't account for rebuys and addons.

Other methods are:

1. SB+BB=10% of chips in play. This method is less accurate for 3+ table tourneys.
2. BB=5% of chips in play

 

[BGinGA]

With competent players, it is pretty unlikely that any event will last longer than the blind level where there are 20 total big blinds in play on the table.

Even split evenly among two players, the shortest stack will have ~at most~ just 10 big blinds, and often far less. It takes some incredibly lucky and/or awful play for an event to last more than one level under those conditions.

 

[bigdonkey]

Slight hijack, but is there a similar formula for an antes-only format e.g. 7-card stud? TIA

 

[BGinGA]

Same system works out pretty close for my antes-only (no blinds) NLHE tournaments, as well as most Fixed Limit tournaments I've ran, including a few stud variants (HORSE,, Razz, Stud8, etc.).

Never ran an antes-only Stud event; not sure how that would even work.

 

[bigdonkey]

Same system works out pretty close for my antes-only (no blinds) NLHE tournaments, as well as most Fixed Limit tournaments I've ran, including a few stud variants (HORSE,, Razz, Stud8, etc.).

Never ran an antes-only Stud event; not sure how that would even work.

Forgive me if I'm being obtuse, but why would a Stud event work any differently than the other Fixed Limit stud variants that you ran?

When you say the same system works, you mean antes 5% of chips in play? The reason I ask is because in an event using blinds, a blind level of 500/1000 (with 30,000 chips in play) represents 5% of the chips regardless if there are 2 or 10 players remaining. In an antes game with antes at 750, with 2 players remaining total antes would be 1500, or 5% of chips in play. With 10 players remaining total antes would be 7500, or 25% of chips in play. Just curious if that dynamic has an effect on ending time.

 

[BGinGA]

Forgive me if I'm being obtuse, but why would a Stud event work any differently than the other Fixed Limit stud variants that you ran?

I don't think we're on the same page. Because I actually posted the exact opposite of ^that^ -- i.e., the same "20 total big blinds remaining in play" standard (or 20 big bets, for fixed-limit games) works for most blinds-based games, antes-only NLHE, and Fixed Limit tournaments, INCLUDING stud variants:

Same system works out pretty close for my antes-only (no blinds) NLHE tournaments, as well as most Fixed Limit tournaments I've ran, including a few stud variants (HORSE,, Razz, Stud8, etc.).

Maybe antes-only means something different to you than it does to me. In my world, antes-only means there are no posted blinds in what is otherwise normally a small blind/big blind format (or small bet/big bet betting structure, if fixed-limit). I've never heard of any stud game that used antes only, with no subsequent bring-in, compete, and small bet/big bet betting structure, and hence, have no idea what you're talking about with this statement:

an antes-only format e.g. 7-card stud

The only variant of all of those games listed above where antes is the ONLY betting construct is antes-only NLHE - and that game has a minimum bet per level, typically equal to the total amount of posted antes per hand. 20 minimum bets is the benchmark used in those cases, as it's pretty close to what the big blind would normally be, if there were one.

 

[pokerplayingpisces]

I predict this tourney will end, when @Kyle hits the river on me!

 

[Kyle]

I predict this tourney will end, when @Kyle hits the river on me!

I like it! Ha ha!

 

[pokerplayingpisces]

I like it! Ha ha!

But you’re not gonna be there, so I might have a chance!!

 

[DoubleEagle]

In our weekly three table tournament, the tournament will usually end in the level when the BB = starting stack. I use this the most as it is easy to remember and has consistently worked.

Another calculation you can use is when the BB is 10% the average stack, the tournament will usually end in that level. For example when heads up the stacks are 60,000 and 80,000, the average stack is 70,000. 10% is 7,000. So when the BB is 7,000 the tournament will usually end during that level.

Trial and error will determine which calculation works best for your group and structure.

 

[ruskba]

Is there a rule of thumb or "ballpark" number of big blinds remaining to calculate/estimate when a tournament should end?

For example, say you have 25 players that each start with 10,000 chips. That's 250,000 chips in play. Assuming the tournament starts at 25/50 with blinds increasing at a "normal" rate, when should the tournament end?

With 100BBs? 80BBs? 60BBs in play?

You’re gonna have to factor in if a few players bink a 30-1 bet and all of the sudden the number of BBs in play triples...

 

[justsomedude]

You’re gonna have to factor in if a few players bink a 30-1 bet and all of the sudden the number of BBs in play triples...

Isn't it the same?

150,000 chips in play at 1000/2000 is still 75 big blinds... regardless of distribution or players remaining.

 

[grantc54]

With competent players, it is pretty unlikely that any event will last longer than the blind level where there are 20 total big blinds in play on the table.

This is fairly accurate. (Total chips in play)/20 = BB of last level +/- 1 level. I've used this method to estimate the tourney ending for years (about ~40 tournaments a year) and it is accurate 95% of the time.

Grant

 

[ruskba]

Isn't it the same?

150,000 chips in play at 1000/2000 is still 75 big blinds... regardless of distribution or players remaining.

I just mean you won’t know how many chips will be in play at the start of the tournament, since the total in play will change once the NFL bets pay out.

 

[justsomedude]

I just mean you won’t know how many chips will be in play at the start of the tournament, since the total in play will change once the NFL bets pay out.

OH oh oh!! RIGHT. I thought you meant a 30-1 bet in poker. I'm losing it, Brian.

But you're absolutely right... this Sunday's game is gonna be a little bonkers. The stacks after the AFC game ends will change dramatically.

Could be good. Could be bad.

:

We'll see.

 

[WedgeRock]

How is that working? I bet $1 on some 30-1 prop... My dollar goes into the tournament prize pool and if I hit the bet, I get paid in tournament chips? If I lose, the prize pool just gets juiced?

I assume the payout is the same ratio to the buyin.

Assume a $30 buyin for T100,000 in chips (to make the maffs easy). If I hit a 30-1 on a $1 bet, I get another stack of T100,000?

If my assumptions are correct, is there any limitation on what any one person can wager or win?

EDIT: I just read the thread. Looks like you bet addon chips to win tourney chips. Still sounds like a blast. If you bust out before the bet comes in, are you automatically "rebought" into the tournament if you win the bet?

 

[justsomedude]

EDIT: I just read the thread. Looks like you bet tourney chips to win tourney chips. Still sounds like a blast. If you bust out before the bet comes in, are you automatically "rebought" into the tournament if you win the bet?

Yup - you nailed it! It might be a little crazy, as players could bust out and then reseat with 60,000 chips at level 6. But I think it could also be fun as hell. I just wanted to have some tie-in with the NFL game on the big screen so it wouldn't just be background noise, but rather an element of the tournament.

We'll see what happens!

To keep things under control from a management standpoint, I've limited it to 3 bets in total... you can bet your 2k bonus, Addon another 2k at $10, and a final 3k Addon for $15. All addons go to the tourney prize pool, and addon chips can ONLY be used for NFL wagers (they cannot be used in tournament play).

You can wager your three bets however you want, although they are fixed at 2k - 2k - 3k. No splitting 500 chips here, or 1,000 chips on another bet there. That would be too much for me to manage, so I've capped it at a max of 3 bets per person in those fixed amounts.

Here's the current bet sheet... http://justsomedude.com/nflpoker2018.pdf

 

[DoubleEagle]

This is fairly accurate. (Total chips in play)/20 = BB of last level +/- 1 level. I've used this method to estimate the tourney ending for years (about ~40 tournaments a year) and it is accurate 95% of the time.

Grant

Works out to be the same as 10% of the average stack. However, your formula is easier to compute. I like it!

 

[WedgeRock]

Yup - you nailed it! It might be a little crazy, as players could bust out and then reseat with 60,000 chips at level 6. But I think it could also be fun as hell. I just wanted to have some tie-in with the NFL game on the big screen so it wouldn't just be background noise, but rather an element of the tournament.

We'll see what happens!

To keep things under control from a management standpoint, I've limited it to 3 bets in total... you can bet your 2k bonus, Addon another 2k at $10, and a final 3k Addon for $15. All addons go to the tourney prize pool, and addon chips can ONLY be used for NFL wagers (they cannot be used in tournament play).

You can wager your three bets however you want, although they are fixed at 2k - 2k - 3k. No splitting 500 chips here, or 1,000 chips on another bet there. That would be too much for me to manage, so I've capped it at a max of 3 bets per person in those fixed amounts.

Here's the current bet sheet... http://justsomedude.com/nflpoker2018.pdf

Where the prop payouts come from? Vegas/online book?

 

[justsomedude]

Where the prop payouts come from? Vegas/online book?

I can’t remember the link... but it was a sports book site that aggregated odds from a bunch of different places. I picked the most resonable from that list. I’ll post it when I get home...

 

[justsomedude]

I got my prop bet odds from here... http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/afc-conference-championship-game-props

Main bet odds from here... http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/jacksonville-new-england-odds-january-21-2018-951737

And a lot has already changed since I made my sheet.