Bad play? Good play? (1 Viewer)

[colter ripton]

Playing 2/3 nl at my local casino last weekend.

I have been running good for a few hours at this point and have turned my 600 buy in to just under 1500 stack.

I have been the most active player by far at the table. Raising with a wide variety of hands and not often backing down to a 3 bet. I think I'm the best player at the table and have been outplaying the table.

The villian in this hand is on his 2nd rebuy. I felted him earlier when I hit a gutterball straight on the turn and overshoved 500 dollars into a 300 dollar pot into his AK. With an A483 board. I had 52. He seems like a pretty decent player. He hasent gotten out of line much and has made some hands. He has worked his 2nd rebuy up to 1200ish.

The hand in question.

6 dollar straddle on the button. 3 calls around to me in the cutoff.

I look down at AQ off suit and raise to 26 dollars.

Villan thinks for about 30 seconds and raises to 81. Folds back around to me and I make the call.

Villains stack is around 1200 ish.

Flop Comes A 5h 6h

Villan bets 125. I call

Turn is an 8 of hearts. Putting 56 and 8 of hearts on the board. I do not have a heart.

Villian bets 225. I think about the action and put him on AK. He doesnt seem super confident and I dont think he has a flush. I dont think he liked the 3rd heart. Atleast that wasnt my read.

I thought there was a possibility that I was ahead, but i was pretty sure he had AK after his pre flop 3 bet.

I jam over the top for his about 800 remaining stack.

Villian tanks for about 5 mins and makes the call.

He turns over AK with the ace of hearts. River was a blank and I lose the 2400ish pot.

I read him for AK. I didnt think he could call with 1 pair. Even if he has the ace of hearts. I almost always have him crushed in that spot. I think atleast 90 percent of the time hes gunna need a heart to win there.

My question.

Was that line way too ambitious. Even if I think I have a good read on his hand?

How often do you think that bluff works? Is it a profitable play?

Do you make that call for 800 in a 550ish pot with 1 pair?

Hand has been bugging me for a few days. Any input appreciated.

Colter

 

[DrStrange]

Hero should already know the answer to the question, it is part of the original thread.

"The villian in this hand is on his 2nd rebuy. I felted him earlier when I hit a gutterball straight on the turn and overshoved 500 dollars into a 300 dollar pot into his AK. With an A483 board. I had 52. "

Hero already knows that the villain over values top pair type hands and is sticky. Hero reads villain (accurately) for exactly this type of hand. We profit from this type of villain by exploiting his tendencies when we have value hands - e.g. the wheel vs top pair.

Trying to bluff such a villain so that he will fold his top pair hand + flush redraw is a waste of a great read. I wouldn't do it. This hand should bug Hero. It was a giant mistake and cost hero a week's worth of grinding in one single misguided bet.

 

[1A25R]

well Top Pair top Kicker, flush draw at the turn... and if you reverse engineering the hand, and lets said that he put you on a KK (because he block Aces) on the river you are drawing dead.
With QA you have 5% chance
is pocket 6 a hand that you will raise to 26 pre-flop ?
have you thought at your betting pattenr? (if you have one)

I'm not surprised by his call

 

[trever]

You believed that, based on the prior big AK hand that your opponent would see a pattern and fold his TPTK this time.
Is villain smart enough to be tracking patterns in your play, or is he just "playing his cards"?
If he is smart enough, what other information, besides that one hand have you been giving to him all night?

 

[colter ripton]

You believed that, based on the prior big AK hand that your opponent would see a pattern and fold his TPTK this time.
Is villain smart enough to be tracking patterns in your play, or is he just "playing his cards"?
If he is smart enough, what other information, besides that one hand have you been giving to him all night?

Yes I remembered showing him the nuts last time I made a big over bet. He seemed like a pretty good player. Mid 20s grinder type.

well Top Pair top Kicker, flush draw at the turn... and if you reverse engineering the hand, and lets said that he put you on a KK (because he block Aces) on the river you are drawing dead.
With QA you have 5% chance
is pocket 6 a hand that you will raise to 26 pre-flop ?
have you thought at your betting pattenr? (if you have one)

I'm not surprised by his call

I'm not sure what he put me on, but I would have absolutely raised the cutoff with any pair there.

I would have also called his re raise with something like a suited connector there considering stack sizes.

I had been playing alot of pots. But hadent been caught in a significant bluff so far that night.

Every time before this hand if I was in a big pot and it went to show down I turned over the nuts or close to it.

 

[Gobbs]

Without reading any of the subsequent posts, I think it's a bit too risky of a move without the nut flush blocker. He was getting about 2:1 on his call. There are a lot of hands you could have that would make it a bad call. I don't know what your pre-flop range had been, but you said it was pretty wide. So, , , and come to mind. I don't know if he would have considered , , , or as possibilities, but even if he did, there are still a lot of hands that he certainly could have put you on that he has beat kx:, , , , , , maybe more).

My guess is, he looked at your possible holdings and figured you were representing a flush, but knew there wasn't much of a chance you had the made flush since he had the ace of hearts. What flush could you have kh:? ? Suited connectors? Just doesn't seem likely)? Therefore, with so many hands he could beat and still a few outs on the river for the nut flush if you did have him beat, he was getting his 2:1 odds to call.

I think the bottom line here is, without knowing for sure that he didn't have the nut flush draw (which, as it turns out, he did), you can't be that aggressive in a cash game against somebody who seems to be able to play well and has a sizable chip stack that can hurt you badly.

 

[colter ripton]

Without reading any of the subsequent posts, I think it's a bit too risky of a move without the nut flush blocker. He was getting about 2:1 on his call. There are a lot of hands you could have that would make it a bad call. I don't know what your pre-flop range had been, but you said it was pretty wide. So, , , and come to mind. I don't know if he would have considered , , , or as possibilities, but even if he did, there are still a lot of hands that he certainly could have put you on that he has beat kx:, , , , , , maybe more).

My guess is, he looked at your possible holdings and figured you were representing a flush, but knew there wasn't much of a chance you had the made flush since he had the ace of hearts. What flush could you have kh:? ? Suited connectors? Just doesn't seem likely)? Therefore, with so many hands he could beat and still a few outs on the river for the nut flush if you did have him beat, he was getting his 2:1 odds to call.

I think the bottom line here is, without knowing for sure that he didn't have the nut flush draw (which, as it turns out, he did), you can't be that aggressive in a cash game against somebody who seems to be able to play well and has a sizable chip stack that can hurt you badly.

When I say my range had been pretty wide, i mean that basically I could have had almost any two cards.

I felted him a couple hours before with 52 of hearts in a pot that I raised preflop, bet the flop, and check jammed on the turn. It was a pretty similar situation and I was way good and got paid off the max. I guess I was thinking that after that history he would fold to the over shove unless he had a set of aces or better.

I could have easily had a straight, a flush, or a set there as well as any of the 2 pair combos. With the exception of Ax. I dont usually play ace rag.

I would have much rather had the A of hearts in my hand.

After the hand the guy told me that he would have folded if he didnt have the ace of hearts. He also said he was almost sure that he would need to hit a heart to win the hand.

I dont know if I would have called or not in his shoes.

I do definatley agree that it was probably too risky of a play to make. I'm risking 800 on a bluff to try and pick up about 500.

My read told me that he didnt like the heart and I went with the bluff. Maybe next time I'll just fold and wait for a better spot.

If I'm holding the ace of hearts there then I think it's probably the correct play.

I do make mistakes being overly aggressive from time to time.

 

[Rhodeman77]

It is a pretty easy call by Villian. How many combos of hearts is Hero going to have here?

You put him on AK, you have an A there is one on the board so he has a 50/50 chance of having the Ah already!!! On top of that if you had flopped a set vs a 3 bettor with an A high flush drawing board you are raising 100% of the time on that flop because both of you want to get the money in ASAP before any more cards come!!!

Add in he is super stick with top pair already and you have a recipe for losing your stack with a Fancy Play Syndrome.

 

[mipevi]

Fold to 3bet pre and move to a PLO table.

 

[Highli99]

On nights when cards are running good it is easy to feel invincible and basically try to win every pot, or at least believe every pot is winnable with the right betting line. I think I’ve heard it called winners tilt. Seems like a little bit of that might affected your decision to shove.

 

[JustinInMN]

I think calling pre and flop is fine. I think you need to do that to test his resolve with the JJ-KK part of villian's range. Targeting AK for a fold doesn't make sense for a couple reasons.

1) AK is probably the second best hand in villian's range aside from the one possible combo of AA. The cards needed for sets and two pair combos are too small for 3 bets. Even if he doesn't explicitly understand game theory, he probably instinctively understands his hand is too good to fold.

2) As @Rhodeman77 is saying, so many of villian's ak combos contain a heart, that makes him more willing to call.

The one thing I would say that's good about the shove is in a vacuum, hero has more flushes and sets in range than villian so there is a range advantage in play.

But again, if villian holds a blocker, that certainly reduced flush possibilities hero can hold from villian's perspective.

Personally I would play this hand as a bluff catch or just give it up on the turn.

 

[Minraiser]

Way to strong of a hand to turn into a bluff, especially without the Ah. Plus getting people to fold a pair of Aces in a 2/3 game seems ambitious.

 

[stafil]

Actually scratch my previous reply. You put him on AK but not AK of hearts. Why did you assume AK of hearts was out of the question? Your read sounds a bit too specific. Are you sure your memory is accurate?

 

[Steve Birrer]

If you are looking for some one to support this line of play I think you are looking in the wrong place. Bad play. Enough said.

 

[JustinInMN]

If you are looking for some one to support this line of play I think you are looking in the wrong place

Not that I have a right to attribute intent to the original poster 's motives for posting, but since this is the internet, I will do it anyway.

Perhaps it is the opposite, he understands this was a mistake and wants specifics on why or just wants some internet scorn to reinforce discipline next time it comes up .

 

[RainmanTrail]

I have been the most active player by far at the table

Raising with a wide variety of hands and not often backing down to a 3 bet.

I hit a gutterball straight on the turn and overshoved 500 dollars into a 300 dollar pot

I'm not sure what he put me on, but I would have absolutely raised the cutoff with any pair there.

I felted him earlier when I hit a gutterball straight on the turn and overshoved 500 dollars into a 300 dollar pot into his AK. With an A483 board. I had 52. He seems like a pretty decent player.

I would have also called his re raise with something like a suited connector there considering stack sizes.

When I say my range had been pretty wide, i mean that basically I could have had almost any two cards.

I felted him a couple hours before with 52 of hearts in a pot that I raised preflop

I felted him a couple hours before with 52 of hearts in a pot that I raised preflop, bet the flop, and check jammed on the turn.

If I'm holding the ace of hearts there then I think it's probably the correct play.

I do make mistakes being overly aggressive from time to time.

I think I'm the best player at the table and have been outplaying the table.

At the macro view, the narrative above is pretty strong evidence of hero having contracted FPS (fancy play syndrome).

Raising hands like 52s pre flop with any sort of regulatory, turning AQ into a bluff when you suspect villain has AK, and calling large 3 bets pre-flop with small suited connectors doesn't make you a dangerous unpredictable player. It makes you susceptible to exploitation, especially in difficult situations.

My read of the above hands is that your over shove with the wheel on the turn was a mistake and that you were lucky to get paid off in that hand by AK.

In the AQ hand, you should have learned from the previous hand that his AK was likely to call you there if you bluff shoved your AQ, especially since he is likely holding a heart, and usually the Ah when he makes a strong $225 bet on the turn (many players will often check back this spot for pot control if they don't have a heart with their AK and bet big when they do). Remember, there are only two aces left in the deck for him to be holding, and one of them is the Ah. There are 8 AK combos he could have, one of them gives him the nut flush already, 3 give him nut flush draw, and another gives him second nut flush draw. So if you put him on AK, there would be a 62.5% chance that he had at least one heart if taken at random, but if you attribute some weight to his $225 bet as a Bayesian prior (which you should), then you should be able to confidently put that "with a heart" portion of the AK distribution up to at least an 80% likelihood.

Also, your inability to accurately calculate the pot size, and by extension the pot odds either you or he are facing, is somewhat concerning. You stated that he was facing an $800 reraise/shove by you but that the pot only had about $500 in it, when according to your own recounting of the hand, the pot actually had almost $900 in it before he calls your additional $800, giving him more than 2 to 1 on a call.

If I were the villain, I would have folded the first AK but not the second one. You made big costly mistakes in both hands. If I were coaching you, I would advise you to pick different spots for your bluffs. Particularly spots that aren't nearly as risky and as expensive. Try to completely eliminate the huge "bluff shove" from your arsenal for the next 10 sessions and see how that affects your game.

 

[BukNaked36]

It is a pretty easy call by Villian. How many combos of hearts is Hero going to have here?

You put him on AK, you have an A there is one on the board so he has a 50/50 chance of having the Ah already!!! On top of that if you had flopped a set vs a 3 bettor with an A high flush drawing board you are raising 100% of the time on that flop because both of you want to get the money in ASAP before any more cards come!!!

Add in he is super stick with top pair already and you have a recipe for losing your stack with a Fancy Play Syndrome.

This plus I wouldn't jam $800 over $225 if I had hit my flush on the turn. I'm sure some guys play this way, but I would generally read that as a bluff the vast majority of the time.

 

[colter ripton]

At the macro view, the narrative above is pretty strong evidence of hero having contracted FPS (fancy play syndrome).

Raising hands like 52s pre flop with any sort of regulatory, turning AQ into a bluff when you suspect villain has AK, and calling large 3 bets pre-flop with small suited connectors doesn't make you a dangerous unpredictable player. It makes you susceptible to exploitation, especially in difficult situations.

My read of the above hands is that your over shove with the wheel on the turn was a mistake and that you were lucky to get paid off in that hand by AK.

In the AQ hand, you should have learned from the previous hand that his AK was likely to call you there if you bluff shoved your AQ, especially since he is likely holding a heart, and usually the Ah when he makes a strong $225 bet on the turn (many players will often check back this spot for pot control if they don't have a heart with their AK and bet big when they do). Remember, there are only two aces left in the deck for him to be holding, and one of them is the Ah. There are 8 AK combos he could have, one of them gives him the nut flush already, 3 give him nut flush draw, and another gives him second nut flush draw. So if you put him on AK, there would be a 62.5% chance that he had at least one heart if taken at random, but if you attribute some weight to his $225 bet as a Bayesian prior (which you should), then you should be able to confidently put that "with a heart" portion of the AK distribution up to at least an 80% likelihood.

Also, your inability to accurately calculate the pot size, and by extension the pot odds either you or he are facing, is somewhat concerning. You stated that he was facing an $800 reraise/shove by you but that the pot only had about $500 in it, when according to your own recounting of the hand, the pot actually had almost $900 in it before he calls your additional $800, giving him more than 2 to 1 on a call.

If I were the villain, I would have folded the first AK but not the second one. You made big costly mistakes in both hands. If I were coaching you, I would advise you to pick different spots for your bluffs. Particularly spots that aren't nearly as risky and as expensive. Try to completely eliminate the huge "bluff shove" from your arsenal for the next 10 sessions and see how that affects your game.

I guess the pot was about 650.

162 pre
250 more on the turn.

So 412 plus the 225.


It was 800 more than the 225.

I agree that it was a mistake. I dont usually talk about the hands I play well. I agree that I was having a bit of a fancy play syndrome moment. I was feeling like I could just drive him off his hand.

It was a big mistake and one I shouldnt have made. I was running good and hitting cards and took it a little too far.

I still dont think its a really easy call.

800 to win 637.

I'm not sure i make that call on someone that did a similar play earlier and had me crushed.

 

[RainmanTrail]

I guess the pot was about 650.

162 pre
250 more on the turn.

So 412 plus the 225.


It was 800 more than the 225.

I agree that it was a mistake. I dont usually talk about the hands I play well. I agree that I was having a bit of a fancy play syndrome moment. I was feeling like I could just drive him off his hand.

It was a big mistake and one I shouldnt have made. I was running good and hitting cards and took it a little too far.

I still dont think its a really easy call.

800 to win 637.

I'm not sure i make that call on someone that did a similar play earlier and had me crushed.

It's ok, everyone makes shitty plays. Just try to always learn from the mistakes, and you'll be heading in the right direction.

You're still calculating the pot incorrectly though. You need to add your $225 call to the pot size before you calculate his pot odds on the river. The pot was either $188 or $189 pre-flop as he must have either been the SB or BB (81+81+6+6+6+6+2 or 3). Then it was $438 after the flop (188+125+125), then it was $888 after he bet the $225 since you called the $225 and raised him all in for another $800 (438+225+225). So he is looking at an $800 call for your $800 plus the $888 that is now in the middle, giving him 2.1 to 1 on his money with top pair, top kicker and nut flush draw against what I would perceive as a likely bluff.

 

[colter ripton]

Yeah your right.

Didnt take my call of the 225 into account.

I guess he had a bit better than 2 to 1.

 

[BGinGA]

Fold pre. AQ is a loser.

 

[Thomacetti]

At the macro view, the narrative above is pretty strong evidence of hero having contracted FPS (fancy play syndrome).

Raising hands like 52s pre flop with any sort of regulatory, turning AQ into a bluff when you suspect villain has AK, and calling large 3 bets pre-flop with small suited connectors doesn't make you a dangerous unpredictable player. It makes you susceptible to exploitation, especially in difficult situations.

My read of the above hands is that your over shove with the wheel on the turn was a mistake and that you were lucky to get paid off in that hand by AK.

In the AQ hand, you should have learned from the previous hand that his AK was likely to call you there if you bluff shoved your AQ, especially since he is likely holding a heart, and usually the Ah when he makes a strong $225 bet on the turn (many players will often check back this spot for pot control if they don't have a heart with their AK and bet big when they do). Remember, there are only two aces left in the deck for him to be holding, and one of them is the Ah. There are 8 AK combos he could have, one of them gives him the nut flush already, 3 give him nut flush draw, and another gives him second nut flush draw. So if you put him on AK, there would be a 62.5% chance that he had at least one heart if taken at random, but if you attribute some weight to his $225 bet as a Bayesian prior (which you should), then you should be able to confidently put that "with a heart" portion of the AK distribution up to at least an 80% likelihood.

Also, your inability to accurately calculate the pot size, and by extension the pot odds either you or he are facing, is somewhat concerning. You stated that he was facing an $800 reraise/shove by you but that the pot only had about $500 in it, when according to your own recounting of the hand, the pot actually had almost $900 in it before he calls your additional $800, giving him more than 2 to 1 on a call.

If I were the villain, I would have folded the first AK but not the second one. You made big costly mistakes in both hands. If I were coaching you, I would advise you to pick different spots for your bluffs. Particularly spots that aren't nearly as risky and as expensive. Try to completely eliminate the huge "bluff shove" from your arsenal for the next 10 sessions and see how that affects your game.

Lots of value here...would also analyze your plays more from your POV

 

[Gobbs]

Fold pre. AQ is a loser.

Logically, I know you are wrong (and being facetious), but I swear you’re right. I don’t care if you get called by A2, AQ is gonna lose.