Another WSOP Tournament Hand (1 Viewer)

MrCatPants

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Some of you may have seen in the live stacks thread that I played in a WSOP NLHE freeze out event last week and managed to cash. This is the second hand of interest I'm posting (the first is here).

Context : 1k buy-in NLHE freeze out, 2200 runners at level 3 with late reg open for several more levels. Starting stacks 20k. Structured with BB ante - at level 3 we are playing 200/300/300, so it's still early and nowhere near the money.

Relevant players:
SB (Hero) : 22k - low VPIP, no showdowns yet
BB (Villain) : 14k - been playing too many pots, VPIP is probably around 35-40%.

Pot is 800

Folds to hero, who looks down at :qs::ts:
Action on hero (already posted 200 as the SB).
 

Jimulacrum

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Against a nitty player who will fold a lot, it can be worth coming in for a raise here. You take down the blinds or see a flop with a hand that's not so bad.

Against a loose player, there's little fold equity, and you'd just like to see the flop cheaply. Limp in. Whether you call or fold to a raise will depend on the size of the raise, but generally not worth getting too invested in bad position with a mediocre hand like this.

Do we expect BB to raise in his BB if it's heads-up with the SB? In other words, is that VPIP coming with a lot of aggression?
 

MrCatPants

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Against a nitty player who will fold a lot, it can be worth coming in for a raise here. You take down the blinds or see a flop with a hand that's not so bad.

Against a loose player, there's little fold equity, and you'd just like to see the flop cheaply. Limp in. Whether you call or fold to a raise will depend on the size of the raise, but generally not worth getting too invested in bad position with a mediocre hand like this.

Do we expect BB to raise in his BB if it's heads-up with the SB? In other words, is that VPIP coming with a lot of aggression?
The VPIP has been a mix of limping and aggression. So given the high VPIP, I'd say aggression is medium.
 

JustinInMN

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I think I am never folding pre. So the question is raise planning to call a 3 bet, or raise planning to call if bb raises.

I think I prefer the small ball line oop personally even if qts is a far better than "average" holding.
 

MrCatPants

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Hero chooses just to complete per the thinking of several of you above, and call any reasonable open.

Context : 1k buy-in NLHE freeze out, 2200 runners at level 3 with late reg open for several more levels. Starting stacks 20k. Structured with BB ante - at level 3 we are playing 200/300/300, so it's still early and nowhere near the money.

Relevant players:
SB (Hero) : 22k - low VPIP, no showdowns yet
BB (Villain) : 14k - been playing too many pots, VPIP is probably around 35-40%.

Pot is 800

Folds to hero, who looks down at :qs::ts:
Hero completes to 300.
Villain raises to 700.
Hero CALLS.

Pot is 1700

Flop comes :jc::9h::5s:

Action on hero.
 

Senzrock

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Amazing flop for us but think we just start with a check. Nice board to check raise, although if villain if super aggro, also a nice board to see if we can win a big one.
 

JustinInMN

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I think I am just checking 100% of range given BB raised preflop. Probably going to call a BB bet and re-evaluate the turn. If BB checks behind, I imagine I am going to lead most turn cards.
 

Senzrock

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I think I am just checking 100% of range given BB raised preflop. Probably going to call a BB bet and re-evaluate the turn. If BB checks behind, I imagine I am going to lead most turn cards.
Yeah think this is standard, although a XR could be better given that this shouldn’t smack villains raising range and we have a good hand to barrel with even if we do get called.
 
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Senzrock

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Yeah think this is standard, although a XR could be better given that this shouldn’t smack villains raising range and we have a good hand to barrel with even if we do get called.
The problem with calling (obviously) is, that say we are up against his AT or something similar - or any of a number of other A highs/small pairs - these are hands we can get him to fold but will often lose to at showdown. We have a shot both on the flop + on the turn at least to win the pot without making our hand. Think I lean towards the XR here the more I think about it.
 

MrCatPants

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The problem with calling (obviously) is, that say we are up against his AT or something similar - or any of a number of other A highs/small pairs - these are hands we can get him to fold but will often lose to at showdown. We have a shot both on the flop + on the turn at least to win the pot without making our hand. Think I lean towards the XR here the more I think about it.
Trying not to telegraph the hand here...but remember his VPIP is like 40%, with a mix of agression and limping. He will have hands like J9 etc in his range for sure. Against another player I'd say this flop likely missed them, but here he is just as likely to have smashed it I think.
 

upNdown

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I was probably raising preflop something like 2.5x. My thinking is that although Q10 suited isn’t a monster, it kind of is a monster, heads up, right? You know he’s calling and since your cards are likely better than his, why not start building a pot?

As played, I’m check calling - there are a lot of turn cards that are good for us; I want to see one.
 

JustinInMN

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Yeah think this is standard, although a XR could be better given that this shouldn’t smack villains raising range and we have a good hand to barrel with even if we do get called.
Yeah I really think check-raise is valid too against certain opponents, but I tend to not try and escalate pots early against aggressive opponents. I like to wait until the turn to make a move if I think villain has air. The fold equity goes up with one card to come instead of two if I have a hand I am turning into a bluff. Since we flopped a pretty strong draw and we lack position, I like the check-call to realize the equity and hope to win a big pot that way. (I assume the kings especially hit both players hard.) I would hate to face a 3-bet over a check raise with such a strong draw on the flop. The draw is too good to turn into a total bluff yet, imo.
 

MrCatPants

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Hero checks per the logic above.

Context : 1k buy-in NLHE freeze out, 2200 runners at level 3 with late reg open for several more levels. Starting stacks 20k. Structured with BB ante - at level 3 we are playing 200/300/300, so it's still early and nowhere near the money.

Relevant players:
SB (Hero) : 22k - low VPIP, no showdowns yet
BB (Villain) : 14k - been playing too many pots, VPIP is probably around 35-40%.

Pot is 800

Folds to hero, who looks down at :qs::ts:
Hero completes to 300.
Villain raises to 700.
Hero CALLS.

Pot is 1700

Flop comes :jc::9h::5s:

Hero CHECKS.
Villain pauses for a few seconds and then leads almost full pot for 1500.
Action on Hero.
 

upNdown

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Sorry, we knew what we were getting into, with this guy. We’re not folding just because he continues.
Check.
A 3-bet might get the job done, but it might also force a jam from him, considering his stack size. So I’m peeling.
 

Skagglio

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Call, next card.

I had almost this exact situation this past weekend at Resorts World with similar relative sizes.

Turn was an 8. I check, he bets pot again. I repot, he goes all in, I call. He had J 9. River 8. Scoop pot.
 
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Jimulacrum

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I could make a case for calling or for folding to the 1,500 on the flop. It's close, but I'm leaning toward fold. When I play loose-aggressive, one of the biggest mistakes people make is paying too much to hit draws against me when I'm just taking stabs at the pot.

The problem with drawing against a loose player with a somewhat aggressive style is that he may just be getting aggressive with nothing, or in any case too little to pay off your straight if you hit. He may very well price you out on the turn too, so this 1,500 is likely only worth one card.

You're only getting about 13.5K : 1.5K = 9 : 1 in total odds across the pot and his stack. That's not terrible for an OESD, of course, and you'd do well to take these odds in a cash game against someone who plays straightforwardly (i.e., will almost always have an actual hand to pay you off with).

But here, I'd say the three controlling questions are:
  1. Odds: On average, are you actually going to make more than the 4 : 1 (-ish) you need to break even on your investment? Remember that, sometimes, you'll hit the straight or top pair and end up losing even more than the 1,500.
  2. Position/aggression: Do you want to pay this much just to check/fold the turn most of the time, or make some aggressive move that might backfire?
  3. Tournament concepts: Is it worth investing this many tournament chips on such a thin venture when you could just fold and let Villian's play organically result in himself or other players busting out?
 

MrCatPants

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I could make a case for calling or for folding to the 1,500 on the flop. It's close, but I'm leaning toward fold. When I play loose-aggressive, one of the biggest mistakes people make is paying too much to hit draws against me when I'm just taking stabs at the pot.

The problem with drawing against a loose player with a somewhat aggressive style is that he may just be getting aggressive with nothing, or in any case too little to pay off your straight if you hit. He may very well price you out on the turn too, so this 1,500 is likely only worth one card.

You're only getting about 13.5K : 1.5K = 9 : 1 in total odds across the pot and his stack. That's not terrible for an OESD, of course, and you'd do well to take these odds in a cash game against someone who plays straightforwardly (i.e., will almost always have an actual hand to pay you off with).

But here, I'd say the three controlling questions are:
  1. Odds: On average, are you actually going to make more than the 4 : 1 (-ish) you need to break even on your investment? Remember that, sometimes, you'll hit the straight or top pair and end up losing even more than the 1,500.
  2. Position/aggression: Do you want to pay this much just to check/fold the turn most of the time, or make some aggressive move that might backfire?
  3. Tournament concepts: Is it worth investing this many tournament chips on such a thin venture when you could just fold and let Villian's play organically result in himself or other players busting out?
One thing on #3, this is a huge MTT with thousands of players, so need to chip up pretty aggressively to even survive. Blinds plus the ante and not being deep stacked really ratcheted up the pressure very quickly in this event.
 

Gear

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Villain pauses for a few seconds and then leads almost full pot for 1500.
If that isn't a Gandalf bet (YOU! SHALL NOT! DRAW!) then I don't know what is.

Having said that, there aren't a lot of obvious draws on that flop, so I'm not sure what Villain is protecting. AJ?

Still, I'd call for that price, even if that means I'm now basically playing face-up.
 

JustinInMN

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I think this is a call for sure unless we think there are bluffs still in villain's range at this sizing. If not, then if we raise here we are likely facing a 3-bet shove.

But really the presence of a J-9-x flop hits even a loose villain's range pretty hard.

Villain can credibly have 99+, AJ, KJ, QJ here, the only "air" I could see villain folding would be 66-88, AK, AQ, AT, (maybe more Ax if he's opening all of those from the BB). I don't think villain is folding KT or KQ here, certainly not folding QT. Even given a wide range, villain has a piece of a lot of this. The only way to put more "foldable air" in villain's range is to give him credit for raising some ten-high or eight-high holdings pre-flop. (And surely there may be some, but not a lot when you really think about it.)

I don't think there's a case to fold at all, 8 outs to the nut straight, plus a probable 3 outs to a Q, and a BDFD is way too good to fold to a pot size bet. I'd probably flat with some Jx here myself as hero so I don't agree a check-call is necessarily "face-up" either.

I think the call remains the obvious choice.
 

MrCatPants

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I call as seems to be consensus given the bet sizing.

Context : 1k buy-in NLHE freeze out, 2200 runners at level 3 with late reg open for several more levels. Starting stacks 20k. Structured with BB ante - at level 3 we are playing 200/300/300, so it's still early and nowhere near the money.

Relevant players:
SB (Hero) : 22k - low VPIP, no showdowns yet
BB (Villain) : 14k - been playing too many pots, VPIP is probably around 35-40%.

Pot is 800

Folds to hero, who looks down at :qs::ts:
Hero completes to 300.
Villain raises to 700.
Hero CALLS.

Pot is 1700

Flop comes :jc::9h::5s:

Hero CHECKS.
Villain pauses for a few seconds and then leads almost full pot for 1500.
Hero CALLS 1500.

Pot is 4700.

Turn comes :jc::9h::5s::8d:

Action on hero.
 

warma

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If you pot, is it obvious and they fold/go passive, especially after the river? If you check, might you be able to confuse V down the line and score more?
 

Jimulacrum

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Check. Let Villain keep the lead.

There are essentially 3 cases as to Villain's flop bet:
1. Villain was c-betting to take down the pot.
2. Villain was betting a hand of legitimate strength.
3. Villain was semi-bluffing a draw.

I figure case #1 is about tied with #2. We're dealing with a player who's not a maniac but does seem to use a balanced amount of aggression.

Case #3 is a much smaller chance IMO. Hero has blockers to both OESDs and one of the gutshots. However, if Villain's the type to steal-raise from the BB, a few of those hands could be in his range.

Anyway, all of that is to say that Villain has a very fuzzy range at the moment. You want him to put more chips in, whatever the case, and checking to him may entice him to bet in all 3 cases. Betting out, however, would likely slow him down in all 3 cases, except once in a great while when he's tied with QT or he hit the sucker end with T7. Even in the extremes of case #2 (i.e., he has a set), betting out on the obvious straight card may give him pause.

If he checks back, that's poker, but then Hero may be able to still extract value from a river bet.
 

Welshman

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Check. I believe he’ll bet then you can come over the top with a re-raise. If he checks behind you can bet the river.
 

Highli99

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Poker is easy sometimes. Donk lead for 2/5 pot he won’t be able to fold and you might entice a Re raise. Plenty of room to stuff the river.
 

utgtrash

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the fact that j9 is in his range means that his range is actually weak from all the other whiffs that are in it. I would have considered a check raise to 4500ish on the flop because it put pressure on the middle and lower end of villains range which is presumably too wide. This also prepares for a turn jam regardless of what comes. QTs blocks a number of top pair middle pair hands.

As played i probably continue checking the turn and just try to get value, which is most likely check calling turn and river, unless you think he puts the brakes on.
 

utgtrash

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Also, don’t really do this but I think I was reading about a super small lead in a spot like this on the river, because aggro ppl HATE folding for 1/5 pot bet etc. and might be induced to jam. Would definitely be a great spot to try it.
 

utgtrash

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Also, don’t really do this but I think I was reading about a super small lead in a spot like this on the river, because aggro ppl HATE folding for 1/5 pot bet etc. and might be induced to jam. Would definitely be a great spot to try it.
Sorry mean I don’t really do this!
 
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