AKs in middle position (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

That's why checking is a "fancy play". Hero makes a play that does not appear to be optimal.

 

[David O]

*** on to the turn ***

Hero makes a fancy play and checks. Sadly Crazy Jr does not bite.

Three way action with $62 in the pot, Hero holds . Effective stacks remain $130.

Turn is < >

USC checks, action on Hero. Should he bet or check? If betting, how much and why?

DrStrange

I actually liked the previous check here. Having seen how several hands were played by Crazy Junior and seeing many hands played by UCS I would have checked there as well.
Now I will stop here for other comments because I saw the results of this hand.

 

[bivey]

well, as played, a bet here looks like an AQ trying to see if their hand is "good." Great chance for crazy to read this and reraise. I'm betting $30-40 with river shove coming on any non club hand. 4,5,7,9,10 all potentially bad rivers. Hoping for A or 6 clubs.

 

[bergs]

Well, we missed out on a bet from Crazy Jr so now we need to make up for it. Betting here looks like we have some sort of a 6 or an 8. We need to bet enough that overpairs will raise and anyone with a good 6 or 8 (A6, Q8, etc) or a flush draw will call.

Effective stacks are $130 and there is $60 in there so let's bet a cool $50. Commits anyone that calls to likely call a river shove too.

 

[RainmanTrail]

I agree with Mr Tree. Don't give free cards to calling stations.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Bet $40 and hope we get shoved on

 

[RainmanTrail]

Bet $40 and hope we get shoved on

^This

Crazy players trap themselves. You don't need to try to trick them. Keep your traps for good players.

 

[Leonard]

Bet $40 and hope we get shoved on

$40 on the turn and I like $30 on the flop. That said, this is the kind of hand where trying a 'fancy play" is not unreasonable, but now it's time to build a pot.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Should've bet $30 on the flop, but since that didn't happen, bet $30 on the turn.

 

[thorwilliam]

I would bet slightly larger on the turn then I would have bet on flop since there are a lot more hands we can get value from now. Bet around $40.

 

[DrStrange]

*** On to the river ***

Hero bets $25, continuing with his fancy play. Crazy Jr ponders a bit, counts out various piles of chips but in the end just calls. UCS folds.

Heads up with $112 in the pot, Hero holds . Effective stacks are $105.

River is < >

Action on Hero, bet or check, if betting how much?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Is crazy likely to bet if you check? If so, check jam. If not, just jam. That looks more bluffy then betting say $60 with $45 behind.

 

[stocky]

Betting half pot with $50 behind feels to fishy. I think jamming is your best option.

 

[RainmanTrail]

I'd Shove, then lose to JJ

 

[Trihonda]

jammity jam time

 

[Leonard]

You have been wanting to play for stacks ever since the flop. Crazy, unfortunately, hasn't been helping you. Checking and betting small haven't worked. It's time to bet big.
There may be temptation to continue the "fancy play" but I think you should resist.

 

[bivey]

If we jam, crazy loses all leverage to bluff. He has to play his holdings. I might make the weird bet of $30 and hope he comes over the top. If I shove here, I want some sort of gut feeling that I am going to get paid off. If 50/50 that he calls, EV = $52.5 on river bet. But if he calls every time betting $30 and he only calls the shove <30% of the time...

How does crazy see hero? If we have a tight image, then I say we continue creative play. (I hope this doesn't sound ridiculous!)

 

[Jimulacrum]

The real question here is whether CJ has a made hand he wants to show down or a draw that busted. If your experience tells you the former is more likely, shove and hope he thinks it's a desperation bluff. If the latter, check and expect him to make a desperation bluff himself.

 

[bergs]

Jamming 100% of the time here.

 

[DrStrange]

*** The End ***

Hero bets $50. Crazy Jr ponders out loud if he could bluff Hero here. Goes so far as to say he is going to bluff Hero {we can hope}. But in the end he folds.

I noted that no where did either villain make comments about Hero slow playing a monster. Such comments are common in this game, so the lack of chatter made me think the villain's might have been sold on Hero's posturing. I suspect David O wasn't fooled, but he wasn't the target either.

Fancy play failed -=- DrStrange

 

[David O]

I had the good Dr at nothing less than two pair on the flop. I could tell by the play he was trying to extract more from Crazy Jr but extracted all he could get. UCS was out after the flop trying to hit something after defending his straddle which was actually talked in to by CJ. I think CJ would have played much differently if it was against some of the other players. Just my opinion but would love to hear drstrange's thoughts.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Yeah, judging by your strategy threads you seem like a very good player, but even good players have brain farts every once in awhile. I think you tried to get too cute, and by doing so, lost value on pretty much every street post flop.

 

[DrStrange]

It would have been interesting to have seen Crazy Jr's hand. Did he have a bad bluff catcher - say something like a pair of fours? Or something like ten high? Or perhaps something in the middle like an eight or a six? Sadly, we are never going to know.

 

[DrStrange]

Fancy plays are by definition sub optimal plays that are either aimed at the meta game or aimed to confuse the villain(s) into making a wrong decision. Generally you look like a genius or a fool depending how the hand plays out. The meta game value is not easy to figure.

Why did Hero choose a fancy play this hand?

First, the stacks are shallow meaning the risks are moderate. Hero isn't going to have any trouble getting all-in if he is facing a weaker trips. Hero isn't running a huge risk by giving a free card on the flop and a cheap card on the turn. If stacks were deeper, then these risks would weight more heavily in Hero's planning.

Second the flop is bone dry. Hero holds the 4th nut. There is no draw. The villains are drawing to three outs or less, if they have anything more than a runner-runner draw. Even the Ultimate Calling Station can find a fold on a board like this one with most of his range.

Third, Hero is targeting a specific villain who is known for making foolish aggressive decisions. It seems more likely that Hero would get Crazy Jr to commit money to the pot bluffing rather than calling value bets. That may or may not have been true, it was merely Hero's opinion at the time.

Basically Hero has to make a guess about what hand villain holds. If it is a good sized pair (or perhaps hand like A6) Hero should shove. If villains hold hands like jack high, they aren't going to call a bet, not even loose villains like these two. If the villain's hold air, hero's best hope is to induce a bluff.

 

[RainmanTrail]

...Even the Ultimate Calling Station can find a fold on a board like this one with most of his range...

In my experience, most calling stations will pay on this flop with hands like Ax, 78, QT, 3-flushes, and other 3 straight hands. They assume you don't have the K until it's too late.

 

[bergs]

I like the check on the flop but I don't like the bet sizing on the turn. It's gotta be a bigger bet - turn is where most of the action is going to be in NLHE (and I wonder if there is ever an argument for just shoving here).

 

[RainmanTrail]

If you want to slip it to them, one play I like to make when I'm out of position is to c-bet the flop with a mid sized c-bet that looks like I'm just barreling off. Then after getting called, I slip it to them on the turn. This induces the bluff more often in my experience because they think you tried to steal, and that now you've given up on the hand. But slipping it to them on the flop often just looks too suspicious. They'll often take the free card.