66 heads up, home tournament (1 Viewer)

JustinInMN

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Hello everyone.

Here's a hand from a tournament last night. Heads up, both players in the money.

Blinds 15K-30K

Hero 850K
Villain 950K

Villain is a bit of a loose cannon, very aggressive, bets a lot of flops and willing to call very wide. Not afraid to call big bets with medium to weak holdings. This seems to have carried through for the first several minutes of heads up play.

Hero is dealt :6d::6c: and opens for 80k (hero's standard open heads up)

Villain calls and goes to the flop.

Flop (160k in pot): :9c::6s::3h:

Villain bets 100k

Hero?
 
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Call for sure. Check back turn and smack villain in the face on the river when he perceives your turn check for weakness.

smile-dust-off.gif
 
Would this very aggressive villain donk bet into you if he completely missed this flop? If yes, I'd lean towards just calling, but that is very player specific. Also, it's a pretty dry flop so I'm not concerned letting another card come off.

If no and it's more likely he hit something (top pair, two pair, straight draw of some kind), I'd lean towards raising since it's very unlikely he will fold on the flop to a raise with any of these hands (like you mention about his wide calling range). The only hand you have to worry about is 99 which seems unlikely since he just called preflop - and if he does have 99, well that's just a cold deck in heads up and not much you can do about it I'd think.
 
Just to clarify, HERO is the button?

So Villain donk bets after HERO raised pre. Has a pattern of this type of action from the Villain been observed to this point? How long has the heads up match been going on?

Does HERO have an image of checking back missed flops after raising pre? If so Villain's flop bet may be appropriate (especially if he had a nine) since this probably isn't the top of flop that would hit a lot of HERO's preflop raising range.

HERO's optimal line is one that will allow him to get all the chips in ASAP. What's the best path to achieve this? It depends on the opponent.

Statistically speaking, Villain will whiff this flop most of the time. An unpaired preflop holding will miss the flop ~70% of the time... I'm not sure how HERO having flopped a set changes this statistic but it surely doesn't improve the chances Villain has connected with this flop.

Calling is appropriate if a turn bet from the Villain can be anticipated. A passive line on this type of flop is OK - although HERO needs to be of a mind that most turn cards will create or complete some type of draw. Only the cards that pair the board are completely safe. But on a flop like this while holding a set, that's an acceptable hazard.

Raising is more appropriate if HERO is highly confident Villain will remain in the hand. The description of the Villain in the OP suggests that he is loose pre and had a propensity to call light... so a small raise is probably OK EV-wise.

But inducing a fold would be a disaster - and that to me is an unacceptable risk. So my line would probably be to flat the flop bet and hope Villain improves enough on the turn to bet again and call the rest of it off.
 
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Would this very aggressive villain donk bet into you if he completely missed this flop? If yes, I'd lean towards just calling, but that is very player specific. Also, it's a pretty dry flop so I'm not concerned letting another card come off.

So Villain donk bets after HERO raised pre. Has a pattern of this type of action from the Villain been observed to this point? How long has the heads up match been going on?

Does HERO have an image of checking back missed flops after raising pre?

Excellent questions.

I will try to provide some color.

Yes, villain bets a lot of flops whether or not he was the preflop aggressor.

Heads up play has been about 10-12 hands or so. Heads up started during the previous level (10k-20k) to the best of my recollection, there was about 8 minutes left to the next level.

Hero has actually rather conspicuously check-folded some missed flops to this villian throughout the night. Part of the reason of this is the early stages of the torunament were unexpectedly loose (8 players overall with reentries allowed) with many multi way raised pots getting to the flop. Hero also ran a semi bluff early against this villian with a gutshot+over are hand that villain called with AK-high, yet hero was the beneficiary of a good river.

So I think hero has mixed up enough to be difficult to read, as has villain.

Hope this helps.
 
I got busted out of a tourney yesterday with that exact holding and flop. Villain had :ah::kh:. Thought I was going to triple up.....but no got runner runner hearts and out I went....lol

For your question. Shove. Jam, Chips in the middle. No cutesy play just get it in.
 
Jam. Relative to the pot size, both of you are at under 10BB and you flopped middle set. This is a good time to get it in.
 
On this fairly dry board against an aggressive villain donking, I just call. But if he likes to make light calls and likely only does this with a 9, you could raise. He might even come back over that with a 9 all in.
 
I guess it has been nearly 6 hours so I will move the story forward.

Good comments, seems a lot of opinion for all options here.

In this hand ,hero elects to call. More on the rationale later. On to the turn.

Hero is dealt :6d::6c: and opens for 80k (hero's standard open heads up at this level)

Villain calls and goes to the flop.

Flop (160k in pot): :9c::6s::3h:

Villain bets 100k
Hero calls

Turn (360k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c:

Villain checks
Hero?
 
5/7 gets there and it brings a club flush draw out there.

I don't think villain has a draw of any kind if they bet for value off of a pretty dry flop. I also don't think they'd bet more than half the pot with a double gutshot off the flop either even if they have the effective nuts with 5/7 after the turn. Villain's hand smells of top pair or an overpair. Their line makes no sense if they have two clubs, as they would have continued firing if they picked up a flush draw. Something smells fishy about their check here overall. I'm interested to see how this one plays out.

Once more, I shove here.
 
Mostly what mike said.

On the turn, I'm absolutely betting. I'm not worried about getting sucked out on - if that happens, such is life. I want to bet and I want a call. If he's got nothing, he's folding anyway. I bet pot and hope it looks like I'm trying to steal it, AND that he's got a piece of it, or a draw.
 
I guess it has been nearly 6 hours so I will move the story forward.

Good comments, seems a lot of opinion for all options here.

In this hand ,hero elects to call. More on the rationale later. On to the turn.

Hero is dealt :6d::6c: and opens for 80k (hero's standard open heads up at this level)

Villain calls and goes to the flop.

Flop (160k in pot): :9c::6s::3h:

Villain bets 100k
Hero calls

Turn (360k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c:

Villain checks
Hero?
Have to bet here. With 670k left here and 360k in the pot (which is approximately 40% of what you started the hand with), I'm probably just shoving here. I don't think it's deep enough to get fancy. If he was bluffing or chasing, he's probably not calling any bets on the turn anyway and I don't want to give a free card. If he already has a hand (top pair, two pair, straight draw plus club draw, set of 3s) there's a good chance villain can call a shove here.
 
Villain bets 100k
Hero calls

Turn (360k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c:

Villain checks
Hero?
So Villain checking means he probably doesn't have anything. If he believed he was ahead on the flop, the turn shouldn't change that belief.

That said, HERO can't give him a free card. There are too many shitty river cards that prevent HERO from getting his stack in.

Since a bet of any significance is probably going to induce a fold, a larger size bet is preferable. Might as well make it look suspicious and hope for a mistake. At least 300k would be my suggestion... but an overbet of the flop would be fine too.

I'm not sure I'd jam though, since that probably won't be called by any one-pair hands (unless he has done something silly like slowplay AA).
 
Sucks. Villain might not have anything with this line. But we want to try and get all in just in case he is playing a 9 or some 2 pair awkwardly. I think betting 200k is about right. It leaves us with 470 to jam into 760 on the river. So both our turn and river bets are about equal sizes of the pot. We are too shallow to worry about him having 57 or 25. It would be weird for him to have a draw here and not bet it, but I've seen it happen a lot from casual players. Plus, if he doesn't have a draw there are a lot of action killing rivers. So bet while the betting is good
 
Hello everyone.

Here's a hand from a tournament last night. Heads up, both players in the money.

Blinds 15K-30K

Hero 850K
Villain 950K

Villain is a bit of a loose cannon, very aggressive, bets a lot of flops and willing to call very wide. Not afraid to call big bets with medium to weak holdings. This seems to have carried through for the first minute of heads up play.

Hero is dealt :6d::6c: and opens for 80k (hero's standard open heads up)

Villain calls and goes to the flop.

Flop (160k in pot): :9c::6s::3h:

Villain bets 100k

Hero?
To me, it depends on how you have been playing, and how you think your play was perceived. With checking, Id be afraid of a cooler (scare card) coming off on the turn and killing your action.
A good aggresive player can raise constantly and fold when played back at, or slow down when a scare card comes out.


But with what youve told us, and assuming youve been playing some hands and with resonable bet and raise sizing, id say bet just shy of a pot size bet, 400k or 425k. Puts him to a decision for his whole stack on the turn and keeps him from betting at you and raising all the time in future pots. If he folds, youd have over a million and hes sitting at 780k (i think), and you just showed him you arent scared. You can whittle him down after that.

Best scenario though, (he doesnt perceive you as a nit) id act like i was stealing and raise somewhere around 250-300k. That way it looks like youre noticing he is trying to buy it, and you are 3bet bluffing lightly trying to conserve your stack. There is a fine line between a value bet and a scared shot at the pot. But if your hollywooding is any kind of decent, and he has any piece of the flop, He might try to 4bet bluff. But be prepared to see him roll over 45 and draw out. Lol

Once again need to know how youve been playing. Not just him.
 
I think hero is perceived as a TAG for sure. I did list specific scenarios above where hero ran bluffs and where hero conspicuously laid down hands after being the aggressor. Hero strives for a balanced image.
 
Time to move forward in the hand.

Good comments again. Everyone seems to favor a bet, though some dispute about moving in versus a smaller value.

In this spot, hero went for a bet but not all in. Again, more on the rationale later. Here's what's next.

Blinds 15K-30K

Hero 850K
Villain 950K

Hero is dealt :6d::6c: and opens for 80k (hero's standard open heads up at this level)

Villain calls and goes to the flop.

Flop (160k in pot): :9c::6s::3h:

Villain bets 100k
Hero calls

Turn (360k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c:

Villain checks
Hero bets 300K
Villain calls

River (960k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c: :5d:
Villain moves all in (370K effective, hero at risk)
Hero?
 
Fold. This is why I look to get it in post flop or after the turn especially if not yet done so. Too many scare cards that could come on the river with both potential straight and flush draws.
 
tl;dr I'd call.

Not the best river lol!

That said, you only need to be good here 28% to make this a good call.

Have you ever seen villain bluff big on a four-to-a-straight or four-to-a-flush board, or turn something like top pair there into a bluff? If he's capable of it, I'd consider calling because you're beating most of the value hands he might have donked out with and then checked turn with (e.g., A9o - 98o, 88, 55, 54o), and also he might just randomly donk with ATC if he knows you might just fold behind when you miss (and this flop is hard for raiser to connect with).

Relatedly, does villain regularly bluff with his worst hands (e.g., where he would lose to A high)?

Also, you've guaranteed second place money so worst that happens is you're still alive with 3bb. Best case you take it down now.

UPDATE: I got the stacks mixed up. Hero's on his bike if he's wrong!

You're toast to 97o - 76o, 74s, 73s, 77 and 22 (and 22 seems pretty optimistic on his part). 75o is possible but I'd imagine villain would continue once he hit the straight on turn. And your hand reduces odds of 76o.

If you're just betting big on the turn (vs a shove), you're leaving him the possibility to shove on a scare card. If your plan was to leave yourself room to fold, then I'd fold. If your plan was to let him bluff a scare card bc his range is so wide and he's so aggressive, I'd call.

I tend towards the latter, and along with the facts that you're getting good direct odds and that you still have an outside shot at taking first, I'd call.
 
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That said, you only need to be good here 28% to make this a good call.
Is that the right calculation here?
I understand the math only works if you follow it all the time, but when you're talking about the last hand of the tournament, shouldn't it be different? As, potentially the last hand of the tournament, this hand is worth more than all the other hands in the tournament, and possibly worth more than most the other hands you've ever played. I'm definitely not comfortable going with pot odds here - there's no consolation for me, when he shows his straight, knowing that I'll be right one out of the next two times I make that call.
 
Is that the right calculation here?
I understand the math only works if you follow it all the time, but when you're talking about the last hand of the tournament, shouldn't it be different? As, potentially the last hand of the tournament, this hand is worth more than all the other hands in the tournament, and possibly worth more than most the other hands you've ever played. I'm definitely not comfortable going with pot odds here - there's no consolation for me, when he shows his straight, knowing that I'll be right one out of the next two times I make that call.
Maybe not the right calculation? I play almost all cash these days lol.

But once we are HU, I'm under the impression that ICM no longer applies, since each participant has locked up second place money and so are essentially playing for a single prize of first-place-minus-second-place money.

You bring up a good point about the regret factor. Personally, I'd regret folding to a bluff (and my chance to take it down) more than calling with a bluff catcher (and getting crippled busted). I find it's a good emotional exercise (vs mathematical) when having to make a close decision.
 
The situation is reversed, villian has 100K more than hero. Hero is out if he calls and loses.
Doh!

Changes my calculus a little haha.

But not that much. Main consideration is why I bet turn (instead of a totally plausible shove). If it's to dodge a straight, then I fold. If it's to keep his bluffs in (or value hands I'm beating), then I call.

Also, how energized am I right now? Am I on my A-game, or starting to slip? If I fold, I'm left with 12bb vs villain's 47bb. 12bb certainly enough to come back and win, and if I'm feeling sharp and feel like villain is likely not bluffing (even if slightly less than 72%), I'm more likely to fold. Also if I feel like I have a material skill advantage over villain.

But, if I'm tired and/or feel like villain has the edge over me, I'm more likely to call.
 
Also, how energized am I right now? Am I on my A-game, or starting to slip? If I fold, I'm left with 12bb vs villain's 47bb. 12bb certainly enough to come back and win, and if I'm feeling sharp and feel like villain is likely not bluffing (even if slightly less than 72%), I'm more likely to fold. Also if I feel like I have a material skill advantage over villain.
Hero is definitely on his A game and feels he has an advantage on villain, but not terribly confident about this particular spot.
 
River (960k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c: :5d:
Villain moves all in (370K effective, hero at risk)
Hero?
For me this is a clear call even though the Villain probably can't realistically be expecting a fold.

We can analyze Villain's calling range on the turn and all that jazz but I'm not sure what the point would be. This has become a situation where if HERO is beat he's beat. There might be merit to consider folding - but while it's not inconceivable that a 12 BB stack can be rebuilt and that HERO can still win the tournament entering the next hand at a significant chip disadvantage, the truth is HERO is probably getting 2nd place if he doesn't win this hand.
 
Hero is definitely on his A game and feels he has an advantage on villain, but not terribly confident about this particular spot.
You can forget all the rest of the hand history at this point.

Anytime you feel a calling is wrong, it's wrong. You might as well say "I know you got me beat, but I'll call". How often does that pan out for the individual saying that?
 
All righty, I will offer the conclusion and fill in some analysis of each hero decision.

Blinds 15K-30K

Hero 850K
Villain 950K

Hero is dealt :6d::6c: and opens for 80k (hero's standard open heads up at this level)

Villain calls and goes to the flop.

Flop (160k in pot): :9c::6s::3h:

Villain bets 100k
Hero calls

Turn (360k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c:

Villain checks
Hero bets 300K
Villain calls

River (960k in pot): :9c::6s::3h: :4c: :5d:
Villain moves all in (370K effective, hero at risk)


Hero tanks, and tanks and is looking desperately for a read. Hero even says his hand out loud in hopes that villain will reveal something. Eventually hero decides to fold. Both players agree to show hands and villain shows....

:9s::5h: for only two pair.

Hero wins a little back in the remainder of the level, but after the blinds go to 20K-40K ends up going broke on a pot sized A-hi shove on a paired board and runs into 3 nines to finish second.

UPDATE: I got the stacks mixed up. Hero's on his bike if he's wrong!
Well actually, playing at my house, I don't have to go anywhere :p.

But as hero, this was how I thought each decision through at the time.

Preflop, I think villain is at least calling me with 80% of holdings, so opening 66 for value is a pretty obvious proposition. It's not ideal to face a 3 bet, but limping this against an opponent that will call super wide is just weak poker.

Flop, I think given villain rarely checks flops if he gets the first opportunity, villain has at least twice as much air as he does "value" hands given he didn't 3 bet pre. I think all of his value pretty much has to be 9x, and what little 6x I am not blocking. He can surely have some straight draws too, both open-end and gutshot. But it's hard for me to give him overpairs and other sets except for the possible 33. I didn't want to raise the flop given how air-heavy I think villain's range is and I figure I am getting it in on the turn most of the time.

Turn, I am certainly not happy about getting checked to because my goal is still to get all my chips to the middle. However, my stack is almost 2x pot and I would hate to make the bet that makes it possible for villain to fold 9x which is still the only value hand for which I can give credit. So given I am unwilling to shove at this level of an overbet, the only way to eventually get all the money in is to bet something here, and hope to either get check-raised now, or to shove it in on the river. I settled on betting 300K, and after getting called, i am figuring most rivers will lead to a villain check-hero all in line.

This is a bad river and I would have checked it behind if villain checked. However, villain did shove and forced me into the tank. It occurs to me 87 makes a lot of sense here (flop OESD), as does 97. I am the preflop raiser so it's possible he chose to check-call a 9 on the turn given he has to put TT+ in my range. It's also possible he chose to check call 87. I also figured he interprets my turn bet as strength so I don't feel like he is trying to get me to fold. And to his credit, he did not betray his holding to my statement.

The above is the best recollection of my real-time analysis. There are certainly things I would change in retrospect, but I won't bring them up now to avoid biasing the discussion more than I should have.

You can forget all the rest of the hand history at this point.

Anytime you feel a calling is wrong, it's wrong. You might as well say "I know you got me beat, but I'll call". How often does that pan out for the individual saying that?
Well I guess I did fold on a feeling and it didn't pan out.

Is that the right calculation here?
I understand the math only works if you follow it all the time, but when you're talking about the last hand of the tournament, shouldn't it be different?

But once we are HU, I'm under the impression that ICM no longer applies, since each participant has locked up second place money and so are essentially playing for a single prize of first-place-minus-second-place money.

Yes, ICM is no longer relevant, but because the tournament does end if hero calls and loses there is an important consideration different from cash. And it's actually pretty simple. What are my odds of winning the tournament if I fold vs what are the odds this hand is good right now. If I figure I would be overcoming a 5:1 deficit and we were of equal ability, I would assume a 17% or so chance of winning the tournament after the fold. (And I did assume I was somewhat the better player so I might give a bump to 20% or so.) If I have a better chance than that holding the winner right now, I should call. I just didn't think I did, I couldn't see a shove without villain having a straight until I actually saw villain's holding. If I could have put 95o in villains range, I could have made the call.

Please keep the discussion going, as I said before, there are a couple other things I would rethink here.
 
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