$500NL Hand from Tonight (06/22)

chipsncoffee

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Imo, this is the best argument in favor of raising instead of flatting, if we as hero are playing the strongest part of our range fast, it's okay to come up with candidate hands for balance. However I don't think I have :qh::9h: in my range at all here. If I were constructing a balanced range, I would probably want the strategy to be to flat with the best draws and turn some of the weaker draws into raising hands, QJs of not hearts for example would probably be in my range. But Q9 is a good pick if it's in the range legitimately.



Thanks for the clarification, this makes the call better, but still not a holding I would like to take against a TAG, but at least the relative stack is much deeper and it's less expensive.

So by my math this puts $32 in the pot preflop (two players for $12.50 plus $7 in blinds)? Did villain still bet $38 on the flop, or did he still do a 2/3 sizing at $22 ish?

Yep! Pot is $32 and Villain bet $24, so more like 3/4 pot.
 

Frogzilla

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like we have all the information from his actions and he has less on us because we are just calling? Isn't just our calling information too though?
On each street OOP has to act with just information from prior streets. IP has information from prior streets plus information from current street. That’s true no matter what we do, but we can exploit it by keeping our range wide and playing turns deeper and more often.

Someone throw it in PIO and see what IP raise freq is?
 

Legend5555

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This is a really weird spot because of how wide Hero's preflop calling range is apparently.

Given we are 200bb deep and on the button, I would generally want to be 3 betting a wide range pre especially against a 2.5x open. The deeper you get, the less I want to just call in position pre. Though that is still very much contingent on villain's PFR% from late position. But against any reasonable CO open range I'd want to 3 bet TT+, AJs+, AQ+, most suited Broadway, A2s-A5s, and maybe a couple weaker suited connectors every now and then. This would shrink our preflop calling range and make our postflop decisions more clear.
 

chip_me_up5

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I didn't see your position during the hand but if you're on the button either fold or 3 bet preflop

on the flop call because you're deep and you could even be up against a better flush draw. You're really in a weird spot if you raise his flop bet and he re-raises or shoves

with 100BB I lean towards raising and getting it in
 

JustinInMN

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In a tournament setting, I'm folding pre-flop as @JustinInMN suggests. But in a deep-stack cash game setting, I suspect it's a close call in theory vs this opponent, provided Hero has the skills and discipline to carry it forward with a positional advantage (not sure that applies to me, so I'm still probably folding pre).

It may be close, but I think the villain read still tips this to a fold pre, even with the correction on the action. The VPIP is so small hero is spotting a huge range advantage to villain, there is next to nothing villian "leads" heading into the flop except JTs, and a slight dog to the lowest pairs, which may only be down to 88 in villian's range. It helps to have position, and it helps to have a large implied chance (which is the one way depth works against the villian here), but it's pretty easy to assume boards that hit Q9, especially those containing straight cards, are going to hit hero as well, meaning we aren't going to have bluff escapes too often. By contrast, hero making this play with 76s is much better, where the draws we flop are likely to miss the unpaired part of villain's range. (Not to mention, it's usually going to be pretty easy to dump most one pair flops.) Or also consider QJs, at least we can flop top pair twice as often that beat the mid-to-low pairs part of villan's range. (Holding a 9 really weakens this hand in that regard.)

A two-gap hand flops way fewer straight draws than a connected hand, and only flops the nuts one way, the perfect J-T-8. A connected hand like QJ, flops A-K-T, K-T-9, and T-9-8. Three times better and flops all the four part draws 3 times as often.

The call is better than I first assumed with the original action, but I still think this is a bad knife to bring to a VPIP 11 gunfight.
 

chipsncoffee

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So, the general consensus here is just to flat call. I'm clearly more of a fish than the rest of you. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:

Villain bet $24 into $32, bringing the pot to $56. Hero raises to $65, and I'll talk about this at the the end of this post. Villain flats, pot is now $186 and we go to the turn which brings the :4c:.

Villain checks.

Hero?

To go into a little more detail, Villain's PFR is 9% and he only 3-bets 1.2% of his hands, so he's not opening many pots and he's not cold-calling hardly anything.

The reason for the raise by Hero is to try and fold out hands like AK and AQ, and I think that a raise actually looks weaker here that just flatting. In all honesty, if Villain did flop a set, we're looking at our implied odds should a J or a :hearts: hits to get paid off.
 

Mike Wells

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You didn't mention what position you were in. Does make a difference here.
If I already have chips in the pot, I'm not folding to 2.5x. If I'm on the button, I think I can justify a fold, given his VPIP.
On the flop, I'm flatting. I didn't call with such a speculative hand, so I could take down a small pot. He's probably not folding anyways, and I don't want to put myself in a spot where I'll have to turn my hand into a bluff in a big pot...out of position.
 

Legend5555

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So, the general consensus here is just to flat call. I'm clearly more of a fish than the rest of you. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:

Villain bet $24 into $32, bringing the pot to $56. Hero raises to $65, and I'll talk about this at the the end of this post. Villain flats, pot is now $186 and we go to the turn which brings the :4c:.

Villain checks.

Hero?

To go into a little more detail, Villain's PFR is 9% and he only 3-bets 1.2% of his hands, so he's not opening many pots and he's not cold-calling hardly anything.

The reason for the raise by Hero is to try and fold out hands like AK and AQ, and I think that a raise actually looks weaker here that just flatting. In all honesty, if Villain did flop a set, we're looking at our implied odds should a J or a :hearts: hits to get paid off.
Yikes! 9% pfr at 6-max? Def a preflop fold IMO in that case.

But now that you have raised, I think checking back makes your hand fairly face up. But if villain only continues with strong hands, then this might be the best you can do. Against normal competition on a huge blank, I'd just fire again because it's what you'd presumably do with a set or 2pair.
 

chipsncoffee

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You didn't mention what position you were in. Does make a difference here.
If I already have chips in the pot, I'm not folding to 2.5x. If I'm on the button, I think I can justify a fold, given his VPIP.
On the flop, I'm flatting. I didn't call with such a speculative hand, so I could take down a small pot. He's probably not folding anyways, and I don't want to put myself in a spot where I'll have to turn my hand into a bluff in a big pot...out of position.

Sorry! Villain is in the CO and Hero is OTB.
 

DrStrange

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I check and take the free river card. Villain can easily be in call-down mode. Rarely he is trapping. Hero is getting an OK price to see the turn plus river.

Hero tried a modest bluff. It failed. Hero should be confident that villain isn't bet/calling the flop with air. Let's not bet our stack that villain can fold top pair. I remind folks last week we had someone call hero down with something like third pair for a big pot. Why would we think this villain is any different?

As for the bet sizing. Hero makes it $65 to go. Villain owes $41 vs a $121 pot. What was Hero's goal? Is this a free card play? Just trying to fold out the weakest quarter of villain's range? If so, that bet size might work out. If Hero had hoped to fold out top pair / good kicker, he needed to bet a bit more I think. 1/3 pot isn't enough to get AJ to fold.

DrStrange
 

Mike Wells

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So here's my guess:
His range is TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ. Maaaybe smaller pairs and smaller Ax?
If he has AK, he might not let it go at all. AQ...maybe a 2nd or 3rd barrel gets the job done? Obv AT is never going in the muck.
AA or TT also never going in the muck.
So that leaves JJ, QQ, KK. We should be able to get him off these.
I don't know... My first thought was check back. But now I think we need to fire one more barrel and re-evaluate.
 

chipsncoffee

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So here's my guess:
His range is TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ. Maaaybe smaller pairs and smaller Ax?
If he has AK, he might not let it go at all. AQ...maybe a 2nd or 3rd barrel gets the job done? Obv AT is never going in the muck.
AA or TT also never going in the muck.
So that leaves JJ, QQ, KK. We should be able to get him off these.
I don't know... My first thought was check back. But now I think we need to fire one more barrel and re-evaluate.

5F60069B-293D-4DCB-A470-62338510E9AE.jpeg
 

JustinInMN

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The reason for the raise by Hero is to try and fold out hands like AK and AQ

Oh boy, I think that's way too optimistic. The raise could get him to fold his K-hi air, and maybe KK, QQ (which hero partially blocks), JJ, or 99 here. How many of these is he c-betting into an A-hi flop, probably some, but some are also probably check-folds for villian too.

So that leaves JJ, QQ, KK. We should be able to get him off these.

I would think a good hunk of these go in the muck on the flop raise. He called the raise, I would give him credit for an ace at least, maybe occasionally KK. In other circumstances we could consider villian has a draw, but again hero's holding plus :ah: on the board really block that so heavily. Villian has value he can call with way more than not. I think bluffing here is just lighting money on fire.

*Sorry for the late edits, I wanted to make this clearer, hopefully I succeeded.*
 
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Josh Kifer

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I don't like the reraise, because now your throwing dead money at a Q high in the turn. But the raise might have cost you less then the villains raise if you flatted. Take the free card, hope for the J for the straight so it looks like you missed the flush.
 

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Based on what you've provided - TAG player, 9% PFR, likely playing premium hands and CO position; I'd check, assuming that he's no worse than TPTK, more likely he's better than that. I'd put his range closer to better flush draw or set, and based on that a free card still gives you an opportunity on the river. In cash (which is how this reads), I'd rather trap than be trapped, especially given position.
 

chipsncoffee

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Sorry for taking so long to make the post about the turn. I got caught up in some errands and then a long session that just ended.

Looking back, you're absolutely right, @DrStrange. If Hero is going to raise post-flop, it should've been sized larger.

Now, back to the hand!

The turn brought us the :4c: and Villain checked. Hero bets $120 into $186, and Villain raises to $280. Pot is now $586, and Hero owes $160 to call. At this point, Hero is banking on the fact that Villain has TT or maybe AA. Even if that is the case, Hero is getting ~3.7:1 on a call, and, when factoring in implied odds in a J or :hearts: hits, we have to call. Also, Hero may have backed himself into a corner a bit, but mathematically, we're getting the right odds to call based on our hand's equity.

Hero calls, and the pot is $746. Effective stack is now ~$630. The river brings the :7h:. Hero now holds the second nut flush. Villain tanks, then jams for his remaining $630. Hero calls and Villain turns over :td::th: for a flopped set. Hero drags a pot of ~$1375.

So, a couple of questions for you all.
  • Do you disagree us with calling Villain's raise on the turn?
  • Do we ever find a fold in this spot?
  • Finally, we are you all such nits?? ;) Clearly, that question is a joke!
Thank you all for your feedback so far! I look forward to hearing what you think about how the rest of the hand played!
 
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Legend5555

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As played, you did nothing wrong by calling on the turn. Your direct and implied odds were very good.

Against players with a wider pfr range, I think the way you played it is fairly standard. I would in general not be calling with Q9s pre though. It's just too weak in general, and certainly too weak against a 8% pfr range.

As I noted earlier, once you start getting into the 200+bb effective range, your 3bet% from the button should start to go up against late position raisers for a several reasons.

1. It almost certainly guarantees you get the pot heads up.

2. You bloat the pot and make it easier to play for stacks.

3. You take control of the pot and dictate the pace of the hand.

4. It helps narrow your opponent's range.
 

chipsncoffee

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As played, you did nothing wrong by calling on the turn. Your direct and implied odds were very good.

Against players with a wider pfr range, I think the way you played it is fairly standard. I would in general not be calling with Q9s pre though. It's just too weak in general, and certainly too weak against a 8% pfr range.

As I noted earlier, once you start getting into the 200+bb effective range, your 3bet% from the button should start to go up against late position raisers for a several reasons.

1. It almost certainly guarantees you get the pot heads up.

2. You bloat the pot and make it easier to play for stacks.

3. You take control of the pot and dictate the pace of the hand.

4. It helps narrow your opponent's range.

It’s interesting to think about how this hand would’ve played had I 3-bet PF. Opponent’s range is already so narrow that it almost hurts. Against a more active opponent, I definitely think it’s a good hand to 3-bet with OTB sometimes to widen my 3-bet range for balance and merging purposes.
 

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Out of curiosity,

if your opponent had put in a big reraise on the flop, call it pot-sized, what would you do?

Similarly, if your opponent had made a big turn raise, instead of that little sweetener, do you still chase?

How much were you going to bet on the river if it was checked to you?
 

JustinInMN

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  • Do you disagree us with calling Villain's raise on the turn?
  • Do we ever find a fold in this spot?
  • Finally, we are you all such nits?? ;) Clearly, that question is a joke!

The call is clearly fine, but you did manage to charge yourself 280 for something you could have had for free.

The river so polarizing, but I think given his low VPIP and PFR percentage, he isn't going to have many :kh: - xh hands and you block :kh::qh: You would really have to put him on check-raising a flush draw on the turn to consider folding. But I think it's a clear call given our read, the only way you lose is if he played :kh::jh: or :kh::th: really strangely, and neither of them strike me as a preflop raising hand given the read on villain. It's been pretty clear the whole way, villain's line is showing he has something of value and the heart is better for hero's range than villain's. (This also makes his river bet absolutely terrible. He can only get paid by two pair, which he blocks heavily holding two tens, maybe hero has three 8s, and he shouldn't be putting hero on AK or AQ given the preflop flat, and he will almost always be called by a flush, especially because the nuts are firmly in hero's range more than villain's.)

But yes, the takeaway here is you were fortunate to hit the 12 outer here. Three times in four you are going to lose $350ish in this hand that could have been a routine preflop fold. This isn't nitty play, this is figuring out how your hands interact with an opponent that's at least a nit on hand selection. It is just wiser to avoid marginal spots against aggressive villains. You punish such players by depriving them of action when they are nut-peddlers preflop. As for post flop, if you know villain is aggressive, why open yourself up to the most expensive path possible to make the draw? Checking in these spots makes sure you realize the equity of the draw, these was never a big fold-equity spot against a tight villain, betting and raising didn't accomplish anything but ensuring you paid more for the draw. The price was always right, but free is always better. It was a fortunate run-out and a river error that benefited hero, that was really the only path to a good outcome in this hand.
 
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DrStrange

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It is too bad we didn't get to have the preflop discussion. Lots of diversity in opinion and approach.

Hero's small sizing on the flop could have been seen as fine if Hero's goal was blocking or intending to fold out the weakest end of villain's range. One thing about on-line poker is the lack of a physical representation of the pot. I seriously doubt the villain understood just how small Hero's raise was.

From the villain's point of view, everything went pretty good with this hand except he lost it. Mistakes were made. The flop leaves villain as a 2-1 favorite vs Hero's combo draw. The turn left villain a 77 - 23 favorite.

I think villain has misunderstood Hero's range, placing him on a top pair sort of hand rather than a mix of top pair + semi bluff hands. I think this because of the two street trap villain set on the flop then the turn. Bet/call followed by checking hoping for a check raise. Villain's sizing was a mistake. Maybe it is ok to flat Hero's flop raise - the plan isn't a bad one, especially if Hero's aggression is predictable. But the turn check raise was weak sauce.

Villain raised $160 into a $426 pot < 38% pot > Hero only needs 27% equity to call. Villain should see that he is effectively risking his stack, $790, and only asking Hero to pay $160 to try. That prices the draws in - it was pretty sweet from Hero's point of view. Villain's check/raise should have been at least $100 bigger. I would have preferred $320 on top or $440 all day < 70% pot >

As the hand lays, a 3-bet preflop means Hero "loses" more money faster. I appreciate that hero wins the pot on the river. But Hero is on the losing side of the proposition every street before the river. 30-70 preflop, 33-67 on the flop, 23-77 on the turn. I can imagine a lot of ways for all the money to be in the pot by the turn. This is a -$400 ev play < as the cards lay not vs the villain range >

As it turns out, that preflop decision might have been the most important of all.

There are two key takeaways for me: villain got greedy tunnel vision and bungled the hand. A stiffer check/raise on the turn might well price Hero out leaving villain with the pot and his stack. Hero missed a "free card" play on the turn and instead took a second barrel that should have ended Hero's hopes. < I wonder if Hero was even thinking "whole hand" vs "action by action" on the flop or the turn? >

This is an interesting hand. Too bad we can't rewind history and do the whole thing from villain's point of view.

I hope Hero appreciates the Poker Gods are smiling on him -=- DrStrange
 

chipsncoffee

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It is too bad we didn't get to have the preflop discussion. Lots of diversity in opinion and approach.

Hero's small sizing on the flop could have been seen as fine if Hero's goal was blocking or intending to fold out the weakest end of villain's range. One thing about on-line poker is the lack of a physical representation of the pot. I seriously doubt the villain understood just how small Hero's raise was.

From the villain's point of view, everything went pretty good with this hand except he lost it. Mistakes were made. The flop leaves villain as a 2-1 favorite vs Hero's combo draw. The turn left villain a 77 - 23 favorite.

I think villain has misunderstood Hero's range, placing him on a top pair sort of hand rather than a mix of top pair + semi bluff hands. I think this because of the two street trap villain set on the flop then the turn. Bet/call followed by checking hoping for a check raise. Villain's sizing was a mistake. Maybe it is ok to flat Hero's flop raise - the plan isn't a bad one, especially if Hero's aggression is predictable. But the turn check raise was weak sauce.

Villain raised $160 into a $426 pot < 38% pot > Hero only needs 27% equity to call. Villain should see that he is effectively risking his stack, $790, and only asking Hero to pay $160 to try. That prices the draws in - it was pretty sweet from Hero's point of view. Villain's check/raise should have been at least $100 bigger. I would have preferred $320 on top or $440 all day < 70% pot >

As the hand lays, a 3-bet preflop means Hero "loses" more money faster. I appreciate that hero wins the pot on the river. But Hero is on the losing side of the proposition every street before the river. 30-70 preflop, 33-67 on the flop, 23-77 on the turn. I can imagine a lot of ways for all the money to be in the pot by the turn. This is a -$400 ev play < as the cards lay not vs the villain range >

As it turns out, that preflop decision might have been the most important of all.

There are two key takeaways for me: villain got greedy tunnel vision and bungled the hand. A stiffer check/raise on the turn might well price Hero out leaving villain with the pot and his stack. Hero missed a "free card" play on the turn and instead took a second barrel that should have ended Hero's hopes. < I wonder if Hero was even thinking "whole hand" vs "action by action" on the flop or the turn? >

This is an interesting hand. Too bad we can't rewind history and do the whole thing from villain's point of view.

I hope Hero appreciates the Poker Gods are smiling on him -=- DrStrange

I do recognize that what you are saying is true, and that mistakes were certainly made. That’s why I want to post hands like this. I did not play this hand optimally.

Though it may seem like I’m only posting winning hands, the point here was to get feedback on how this could’ve been done differently and more efficiently. However, this type of situation is rare.
 

JustinInMN

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I do recognize that what you are saying is true, and that mistakes were certainly made. That’s why I want to post hands like this. I did not play this hand optimally.

Though it may seem like I’m only posting winning hands, the point here was to get feedback on how this could’ve been done differently and more efficiently. However, this type of situation is rare.

I think @DrStrange 's point is the most complete analysis addresses every decision point.
 
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