3 ducks on a dry board. (1 Viewer)

[fish72s]

This hand happened 3 years ago so I don't remember all the details but I think the following is pretty accurate.
I'd like to think I would have made a different decision now but I'm not sure if I would, or even if I should have.

Hero is about 2 hours into a $1/$2 session at the Mardi Gras casino in Charleston WV playing about $220 and is the button.
Villain has $300 and is UTG. He is playing the part of a player but is in more than average number of pots, usually calling. He has turned over some very average starting hands.

The hand:
Villain limps in, and cutoff limps.
Hero also limps in with 22. Blinds call.
$10 to the flop which comes :



Villain leads out for $8, cutoff folds.
Hero calls. (I suppose I can raise here but I think a nine is the most likely hand here and I'm hoping to get another bet on the turn before giving him the bad news. Comments welcome but this really isn't the main part of the hand.)
I don't remember if the blinds called. I'll say they folded so $26 to the turn which is :



Villain leads out for $16.
I supposed I will stop here. What's hero's play?

 

[MoscowRadio]

Raise to $50 and dodge a 9.

 

[fish72s]

Ok. I suppose this is kind of a no-brainer. I'm raising. The only question is how much.
I actually don't remember my actual raise but I'll say it was $35.
Now I get the bad news. Villain re-raises to $90.

What's my play? Call, raise or fold?

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Ship it (and rebuy when villain tables 45o).

I don't think I can fold a set for 100bb at 1/2 unless there's 4 to a straight or flush on board.

 

[MoscowRadio]

There's no reason not to ship it here. You're in a "way-ahead/way-behind" scenario and more times than not you're crushing this hand. Now if Villain happened to flop a set of 3's or turned the wheel, that's just bad luck. I'm never folding this hand or even flat-calling. He could have even turned aces up. Ship it.

 

[DrStrange]

I agree, ship it. Villain has way more aces up hands than sets. Hero's starting stack is too small to fold properly here.

Don't slow play a set on the flop vs a villain with a history of calling light. Hero is going to need three bets to get all in by the river, skipping one is an expensive error.

DrStrange

PS count me shocked if villain doesn't have hero toasted somehow. A thread three years in the making had to leave a scar.

 

[Mr Tree]

Ship it. It's a long term losing play to assume your opponent has the overset here and nothing else is beating you. You are very likely up against a draw or an overpair he was cute with preflop.

 

[detroitdad]

Agree. ....all you can eat baby

 

[grandgnu]

Raise to $45, be willing to play for stacks

 

[fish72s]

I was kind of conflicted in this spot. On one hand I thought an all in was the correct play.
On the other, I was getting that distinct feeling that I was toast. I was convinced he had 45 or 33.
At the time I discounted A9, not because of a tell, but because I wasn't used to people 3-betting with 2 pair. (Doesn't he know I'm not re-raising him with a hand A9 can beat?)
Now I know that A9 is probably 30-40% of his range.
I briefly considered folding but couldn't do that with a set.
I called but didn't really have a plan for the river. I didn't know if I wanted the river to pair or not.

River is

Villain goes all-in.
Lets say it was $120 into a $200 pot.

This was the main reason for posting this and I wanted to title it "When is ok to fold a set?"
I'll save the suspense and say I tanked a few minutes and called thinking there was a small chance he had AK or maybe A9.
Villain turned over 45 for a wheel.
From the comments so far I suppose my call is pretty standard so I feel a little better.
I thought I should have made a big laydown and couldn't do it.
The scar is now healed but I do still think its really close between call/fold.

So, is a fold possible here? When is it right to lay down a set?

 

[grandgnu]

So, is a fold possible here? When is it right to lay down a set?

I'd have to be a lot deeper or the board would need to be more coordinated (offering multiple straight/flush possibilities) for me to lay down your hand here. Looks like a cooler

 

[Mr Tree]

I'd have to be a lot deeper or the board would need to be more coordinated (offering multiple straight/flush possibilities) for me to lay down your hand here. Looks like a cooler

^^^^this, completely

This is one of those situations where if the guy has it you just have to tip your hat and reload.

Look at it this way, there aren't many holdings that beat you and the straight is off an unlikely holding. I feel it would be negative EV to fold this hand in this situation over a long period.

 

[jbutler]

grunch as i only read fish's posts, but lol at folding. just put your money in and whatever. he can have any random aces up he'd have played the same way.

 

[MoscowRadio]

Gnu is right. This was just a cooler. You can't fold here playing 100 BBs, especially on this kind of board considering there are so few hands that beat you.