boltonguy
Flush
Lately ACR Blitz has gotten kind crazy. Many villians have 3! percentages at 12 - 13% (1k+ hands so I think the stats are fairly accurate).
I've been defending both IP and OOP with some degree of success but this evening was thinking about the math - which I dont quite understand.
Let's say we're up against a 3! range of 13% that looks like this which I think is probably accurate in terms of what theyre playing with these stats:
If we look at equities of potential defending hands against these ranges we end up with the following:
- pocket pairs: 99 has 52% equity vs this 13% 3! range. 88 has 48.9% equity against this range plus if we do flop a set we have implied odds that probably make it worth playing down to 66 assuming the effective stack is 100+ BB?
- AJs has 50% equity so maybe we call with AJs+
- AJo has 48% equity so maybe we call with AQo+
- KQS only has 43% so not in range?
So a potential calling range with a per-hand equity advantage vs V's range looks like:
But IMHO we're going to be 4! much of this range including AA, AK, KK, QQ (50%) and A4s/A5s so that doesnt leave much of a calling range except AQo, AJs, QQ (50%) and JJ - 77
Thoughts? This seems pretty tight against a wide 3! range.
Should we be 4! more hands to punish the wider 3! range?
Would be interested in people's thoughts.
I've been defending both IP and OOP with some degree of success but this evening was thinking about the math - which I dont quite understand.
Let's say we're up against a 3! range of 13% that looks like this which I think is probably accurate in terms of what theyre playing with these stats:
If we look at equities of potential defending hands against these ranges we end up with the following:
- pocket pairs: 99 has 52% equity vs this 13% 3! range. 88 has 48.9% equity against this range plus if we do flop a set we have implied odds that probably make it worth playing down to 66 assuming the effective stack is 100+ BB?
- AJs has 50% equity so maybe we call with AJs+
- AJo has 48% equity so maybe we call with AQo+
- KQS only has 43% so not in range?
So a potential calling range with a per-hand equity advantage vs V's range looks like:
But IMHO we're going to be 4! much of this range including AA, AK, KK, QQ (50%) and A4s/A5s so that doesnt leave much of a calling range except AQo, AJs, QQ (50%) and JJ - 77
Thoughts? This seems pretty tight against a wide 3! range.
Should we be 4! more hands to punish the wider 3! range?
Would be interested in people's thoughts.