25NL Zone: 3bet pot low runout with 99: do you call all three streets? (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

25NL Zone. Fast fold anonymous 6-max.

Folds to Hero in SB with 99. Hero RFI 3x or $0.75. BB 3 bets to $3. Hero calls.

Flop comes low, ragged and slightly connected. I think "This is a good flop to lose my stack on if V has an overpair."
Hero checks. V bets 1/3 pot. Hero calls. Outside of overpairs I think V has a lot of Ax in her 3 betting range in general and I am often ahead.

Well at least now I have straight draw outs if I'm behind and can always river a set.
Hero checks, V bets just under 1/2 pot. Hero calls.

River is a brick (unless V is 3 betting 64s). Hero checks a final time resigned to check/calling, acknowledging that I am losing to TT+
Villain bets just over 1/3 pot.

Hero?

 

[davislane]

XR JAM!

 

[boltonguy]

Trust me I thought about it!!! But I'm trying not to be so spewy

 

[Sunshine]

Against an unknown getting 4 to 1 with an overpair and no obvious draws coming in? Absolutely calling. I agree you're not strong enough to raise.

There's lots of stuff that beats you, but I can't imagine that's several times more likely than stuff like A7 or whatever at these stakes.

 

[boltonguy]

@davislane I would definitely only get called by better there!

How about this jam - do you approve?

Hero RFI 7Ts on BN. Size is standard for LP open (CO & BN). SB and BB call.

Dream flop. SB X, BB raises to $1. Hero raises to $3.22 (3x). V calls.

Turn is a brick IMHO. BB leads again for 3/4 pot. HERO RIPS IT IN! I have 96% equity here.

V calls. Hero holds. Dodged 3 tens. Not great odds on V's call ...

 

[boltonguy]

Against an unknown getting 4 to 1 with an overpair and no obvious draws coming in? Absolutely calling. I agree you're not strong enough to raise.

There's lots of stuff that beats you, but I can't imagine that's several times more likely than stuff like A7 or whatever at these stakes.

You are correct. Check this three street bluff by V.
I did call and scooped. Friday evenings on Zone are the best! Of course 25% of the time he has KK so there's that!

 

[davislane]

@davislane I would definitely only get called by better there!

yeah im not concerned about getting called. i was thinking more about what you can get to fold that you cant beat if you call.

you got lucky with that call. you have to rip in that spot as long as you are ripping in lighter also. cant always be nutted.