$2/5NL: TT in the CO

jbutler

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in a vacuum this hand is a trivial fold, but give the immediate in-game history, i'm having a tough time figuring out how many draws and how much air i should have put in villain's range.

relevant background: villain is late 50s asian guy with black leather jacket, black leather fedora, and all kinds of horrendous gold jewelry (earrings, necklace, bracelets, rings). when i first sat, i was in the 4 and he was in the 8. we were in those positions for the first relevant past hand and then he moved to my direct right (???) right after the hand ended and we had the second relevant past hand with him in the 3 and me in the 4.

hand 1:

i check Kh5h in the BB and flop the second nuts on a T-high all heart board. i lead $15 into 3 other players, get three callers. turn brick (no overcard) and i lead $50. villain calls and button (tiny stack nit) ships for another $55. i ask loudly enough so he can hear if he can raise if i call. dealer says yes. i think for a second and call. he calls. river pairs the T, i jam for over the size of the pot and he tank-calls and loses. button mucks i win big pot yay. villain then moves to my direct right.

hand 2:

almost an orbit later the following hand comes up. i have 4c5c in the straddle and it limps around. i check and flop is Ac2dJs. checks around to button who bets $20 into $50. villain and i call. turn 3s. villain checks, i check, button bets $50, villain makes it $100, i make it $200, button folds, villain tank calls. river 9c. villain checks, i jam and he tank calls his $300ish stack off with AQo (lol).

so with that history, here's the actual hand that made me want to post:

one limp to villain in HJ who makes it $15 and i look down to TdTh in the CO and make it $35 just to iso villain. folds around and he calls.

flop ($82): 9s7s7c

villain checks, i bet $55, villain calls.

turn ($192): 4c

villain checks, i bet $150, villain jams for $370.

as i said, this is a trivial bet-fold versus every other player at the table, but i'm wondering if this guy is just sick of my shit and thinks/knows he can take the pot down with a check-raise here because i "always have AK" in this spot or because he knows a nine is the nuts.

really i have two equally-weighted questions:
(1) how often does he flat my 3-bet preflop with JJ+ and also not check-raise the flop and not lead the turn?
(2) how many draws (AcJc, etc.) and how much air does he have in his range here?

so, ultimately, it's $220 to win $712.
 

kirchhausen

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In the other hands you posted, villain never raised pre, even the AQ hand where there was a straddle. He seems to be a little bit of a calling station based on the other two hands you posted, so his raise pre-flop narrows his range considerably. I'm thinking his range is 1010+, AKo, and maybe KJs, KQs, A10S+.

My thoughts based on that read is this flop is more likely in his semi-bluff range if he hit any of his flush draws with overs. I don't see him playing any 7 this way pre-flop, and if his range goes down to 77+ or 99+ oh well gg, but I don't see that as likely.
 

onerand

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Have a hard time seeing this guy making a move,. Tough to fold, but I let it go.
 

DrStrange

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My first though: Hero is getting a bit more than 2-1 on the call, I think Hero is pot committed vs this villain.

But, I worry that this guy is a huge calling station as evidenced by the other examples. Tilted stations call with worse and worse hands hoping to catch Hero bluffing. They generally do not wake up firing bluffs deep into hands.

So, I think it is a fold. If this guy had shown one ounce of aggression in the prior hands, I would want to think about this some more.

DrStrange
 

jbutler

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bump for monday morning responses.

In the other hands you posted, villain never raised pre, even the AQ hand where there was a straddle. He seems to be a little bit of a calling station based on the other two hands you posted, so his raise pre-flop narrows his range considerably. I'm thinking his range is 1010+, AKo, and maybe KJs, KQs, A10S+.

My thoughts based on that read is this flop is more likely in his semi-bluff range if he hit any of his flush draws with overs. I don't see him playing any 7 this way pre-flop, and if his range goes down to 77+ or 99+ oh well gg, but I don't see that as likely.
yeah he basically never has a stray 7 or 9 here imo. he could have quads or nines full, but otherwise it's overpairs and broadway cards.

Have a hard time seeing this guy making a move,. Tough to fold, but I let it go.
i'm wondering if it isn't a lot easier fold than i gave it credit for being...

My first though: Hero is getting a bit more than 2-1 on the call, I think Hero is pot committed vs this villain.

But, I worry that this guy is a huge calling station as evidenced by the other examples. Tilted stations call with worse and worse hands hoping to catch Hero bluffing. They generally do not wake up firing bluffs deep into hands.

So, I think it is a fold. If this guy had shown one ounce of aggression in the prior hands, I would want to think about this some more.
consider that in hand 2 in the OP above, he check-raised the turn with AQo, TPGK. i think that qualifies as more than an ounce of aggression. different dynamic certainly, but aggression nonetheless.
 

bergs

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This comes down to whether you think he 4-bets pre with JJ+ and AK a healthy percentage of the time. If not, then he probably has an overpair. If he does, then as played, I'm calling because he some sort a flush draw.

I'm calling here against this villain unless there is something lolliveread-related in the context of this particular hand that leads me to believe that he's stronger than a flush draw (EDIT: he also could easily have A9cc here)
 

courage

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really i have two equally-weighted questions:
(1) how often does he flat my 3-bet preflop with JJ+ and also not check-raise the flop and not lead the turn?
Not often. A lot of players will flat with QQ/JJ conservatively in order to see a safe flop but those are the only hands in that range I can give him credit for and as you say he'd CR or lead with that and play it more aggressively. I think he'd play QQ aggressively for sure, it's possible he's playing cautiously with JJ after you showed strength PF.

(2) how many draws (AcJc, etc.) and how much air does he have in his range here?
A lot. Overcards + flush draw comprise a large portion in this situation I think. Given how badly he played hand #2, it makes it more difficult to think you're behind. His shove over your $150 bet is strong however, and I agree with others that a station firing like this is rarely bluffing. Question is, does he think he has the best hand with two overs and the flush draw. He could have slow-played the lucky 99 or random 7 but c'est la vie. I don't think you can check either flop or turn here vs this villain, so it's a tough spot.

so, ultimately, it's $220 to win $712.
Yeah, hard to let this go given your history in other hands. My initial plan was call all day. Upon thinking through the hand as played, I think it's a marginal fold. Villain has JJ or QQ?
 

jbutler

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I don't think you can check either flop or turn here vs this villain, so it's a tough spot.
i wonder if my mistake in the hand was betting too large on the turn. trouble is, if he has overs with clubs, he'd be getting the right price if i bet smaller.

Villain has...QQ?
yes, i called and it was this and i made this face:

 

courage

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Maybe check back the turn solely based on your hand strength? That's prolly how you'd play it vs a strong player? Then you're in position on the river to evaluate. However, vs station villain I think it's good to bet for value both flop/turn.

Next time hydrochloric acid hand history.
clown1.jpg
 

Ben

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As played I doubt I'm ever folding given the price and number of drawing hands that could be in play (although I think they should have considerably less weight with this guy than overpairs/99.) I really don't like the nearly-min raise pre though - pretty much the only time I EVER do this is if I am like UTG+1 with a hand I would prefer to just flat an open with like AJs or the like and UTG does something silly like open for a 2.5x raise, I might click it back just so the ENTIRE field doesn't tag along. Here I'm making it $50 and then I think I can be comfortably done with it after one $75 bet/call on the flop (either by him or me.)
 
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