$2/5NL: River trips on three flush and facing bet

jbutler

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i have just sat down with a fresh $500 buy-in (cap at borg) and straddle to get my first hand: Ah5d.

i don't know relevant villain and i know most of this player pool, so he is likely a tourist or very infrequent player. mid-50s, silent, expressionless.

2 limpers, blinds call and i check it through:

flop ($50): Th8h5h

SB checks, BB bets $20, i call, CO folds, BTN calls, SB folds.

turn ($110): 2d

BB bets $40, i call, BTN folds.

river ($190): 5c

BB bets $80. my play?
 
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kirchhausen

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So If button also called the flop bet it should be $110 going to the turn, and $190 going to the river. I'm assuming most bluffs are out of Villain's range as you have the Ah. The five counterfeits his likely two pair, over pair, and TPTK type hands. Barring any physical tells, I think just call. Very easily could be up against a smallish flush, but your hand has showdown value.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Well, you're never folding here. If you raise, do you expect to be called by overpairs? Flushes? What do you do if you get three-bet? I have to think overpairs aren't in his range too much, since he limped pre-flop, so he probably has more baby flushes in his range. He also could have 88 and maybe even 10 10 in his range (though I doubt the tens). Sure, you may get some value out of an A-10 hand (or 10-8) if he's a calling station, but absent a read you are beat more often than not if he calls a raise. I think calling is the right option here.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Also, the incremental betting is interesting. $20, then doubling to $40, then doubling to $80. I'd be interested in calling here just to see what cards he has for this particular betting pattern. Good chance he is bluffing with two overs and the king of hearts, but he'll never call a raise with that obviously anyway.
 

bergs

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This reeks like an awful flush, but he won't throw it away because he flopped it. I don't think he's ever bluffing here given bet sizing and since it wasn't raise preflop, he could've connected with something like 2 pair on the flop. I'd expect something like:

50% of the time: Low hearts (like 67hh or 34hh)
30% of the time: T8 for flopped 2 pair
20% of the time: Some dirty boat that includes a 5.

I guess I'm advocating folding as you're only a 30% favorite (IMO, YRMV, LDO) but it might be worth calling just to pickup on his betting patterns as another player advocated. If he shoved on the river I'm powerfolding, but for $80....eh.
 

Ben

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Yeah raising is never a consideration here - this is call or fold. It seems like a snap call but if villain isn't bluffing (and he probably isn't) then we're not beating much. I think for 40% pot I have to call (he was BB so he could have been betting a 5 with worse heart, or T8, or a small chance of a bluff) but I'm not very happy about it. If he bets $120+ I fold.
 

grandgnu

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Villians betting is consistent with someone who has a flush draw and is trying to control the price he pays to draw to it, as his bets are small in relation to the pot, especially considering multiple opponents behind him.

I don't think there's tons of value in raising, I don't believe villain has much he can call a raise with. Call and get some info on him, I expect to win this hand enough times to make the call +EV.
 

jbutler

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He has 8T or 9T. Call, and make vacuum sounds as you scoop the pot.

harley after he calls river:

9kmxvh.jpg
 

jbutler

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not revealing results yet, but to frame the conversation a bit more, i was discussing this spot with a better player than myself after the session. i made the point that the vast majority of fishy players at this level simply cannot fold for a min-raise and that since i thought this guy more often than not had a top pair type hand (maybe limped with JJ to make sure no overcards flop as some of his ilk are wont to do), i thought a min-raise was in order.

his response was that if this guy was the type of fish who would limp AT/KT/JJ and bet flop and turn, that he would absolutely shut down on the river. he thought it was an insta-fold after the guy fires a third bet out there. he also said he thought that the river 5 is meaningless in the sense that once the guy bets the river, trip fives is the same as if the river had come a 3 or 4 because when the guy bets the river it's either a stone bluff or a value bet.
 

fish72s

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I agree that you are probably beat when he bets the river but I think there are enough bluffs and defensive bets that trip 5's beat that I'm probably making the call. Remember that you just flat called 2 streets with 3 hearts on board. He's likely putting you on the Ah.

If you do raise, I hope it is your hand to signal the waitress to bring over a strong drink.
 

bergs

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not revealing results yet, but to frame the conversation a bit more, i was discussing this spot with a better player than myself after the session. i made the point that the vast majority of fishy players at this level simply cannot fold for a min-raise and that since i thought this guy more often than not had a top pair type hand (maybe limped with JJ to make sure no overcards flop as some of his ilk are wont to do), i thought a min-raise was in order.

his response was that if this guy was the type of fish who would limp AT/KT/JJ and bet flop and turn, that he would absolutely shut down on the river. he thought it was an insta-fold after the guy fires a third bet out there. he also said he thought that the river 5 is meaningless in the sense that once the guy bets the river, trip fives is the same as if the river had come a 3 or 4 because when the guy bets the river it's either a stone bluff or a value bet.

Exactly what I was thinking. I think at best he's got T8 and with flopped 2 pair feels like he has to bet and is trying to both value bet and post oak bluff you at the same time (e.g. doesn't know what he's doing, let's keep firing so he doesn't have to face a big decision from you on the river).

I think MAYBE you're ahead 30% of the time. Folding is not terrible at all here. I think when I'm playing well I find a fold here, when I'm not playing well I call. If I'm drunk and on life tilt I jam-cry-whimper.
 

iBetOnEverything

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I hate hate hate the stupid double the previous bet line, IDK why but it always tilts me

It's pretty close but I'd call in game. He can have alot of junk, people do stupid things.
 

Ronoh

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when we were playing at Foxwoods isn't that what Ben did to me?
I'm pretty sure what Ben sees through those eyes of his is a cyborg-type HUD that is measuring your skin temperature and eye dilation and tells him the exact maximum amount you are willing to call.
 
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Mr Tree

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I'm pretty sure what Ben sees through those eyes of his is a cyborg-type HUD that is measuring your skin temperature and eye dilation and tells him the exact maximum his you are willing to call.
This would explain a lot....
 

grandgnu

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I'm pretty sure what Ben sees through those eyes of his is a cyborg-type HUD that is measuring your skin temperature and eye dilation and tells him the exact maximum his you are willing to call.

I had actually decided he was raising too frequently to have the goods everytime and went into calling station mode with A9 on the button and it was good at showdown (he insta-mucked). But he was relentless with his aggression on all three streets. if I hadn't lucksacked a big win on a previous hand (all-in pre with QQ against OMC's KK plus another guy was all-in and I rivered the Q) then I probably chicken out
 

BGinGA

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call >> fold >>> raise


I'm guessing you min-raised and he shoved..... or folded. Either result is worse than what you get from just calling.
 

Ben

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his response was that if this guy was the type of fish who would limp AT/KT/JJ and bet flop and turn, that he would absolutely shut down on the river. he thought it was an insta-fold after the guy fires a third bet out there. he also said he thought that the river 5 is meaningless in the sense that once the guy bets the river, trip fives is the same as if the river had come a 3 or 4 because when the guy bets the river it's either a stone bluff or a value bet.

The point is you don't know what kind of fish he is at this point - MAYBE he is the kind of fish who once he takes a stab at the pot just can't stop firing (I know a couple of those...)

The first part of the last sentence is always true - EVERY bet is a stone bluff or a value bet (of some sort.) But it's not the same as a 3 or 4 at all, in which case we would be beating zero percent of his value range and not even all of his bluffs - the third 5 puts us ahead of a (small) portion of his value range which, when considering the odds being laid, gives us enough to call IMO.
 

jbutler

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The point is you don't know what kind of fish he is at this point - MAYBE he is the kind of fish who once he takes a stab at the pot just can't stop firing (I know a couple of those...)

Yeah this and the fact that I'd just started my session is what kept me from raising flop honestly. Also why I ended up flatting. He turned over a 7-high flush.

I was telling my buddy that I thought even though I lost, it prob should have been a min-raise to get value from the guy's paired hands, but he disagreed and said what I posted above. I just wanted to hear opinions here as well and I'm convinced it's definitely not a raise now, but I'm still wondering whether a call is right either.
 

Mr Tree

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Yeah this and the fact that I'd just started my session is what kept me from raising flop honestly. Also why I ended up flatting. He turned over a 7-high flush.

I was telling my buddy that I thought even though I lost, it prob should have been a min-raise to get value from the guy's paired hands, but he disagreed and said what I posted above. I just wanted to hear opinions here as well and I'm convinced it's definitely not a raise now, but I'm still wondering whether a call is right either.
I think a call is reasonable just because you only have to be better a little over one in five times to make it a profitable play. With a fishy player I think you will find a bluff a reasonable enough amount of the time to make it the right call. Can't really fault a fold either though.
 

snooptodd

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I guarantee you I play this the same way you did, 99% of the time. However, I'm starting to think about the fact that he led out into a pot with four people in it. Lots of players will lead out with a naked pair on a three-flush board when it's heads up, and most will almost certainly do so with two pair. But most of those same players will be hesitant to do so in multi-way pots, especially with just one pair (equation changes a bit for two pair). The fact that four players were in the pot and he bet on every street should maybe give us reason to pause and think about whether the river call is the right play.
 

2_hotty

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Just from reading the OP, I call here. I wouldn't raise because if he either A shoves, or B folds, I get no more info from this hand. I'm certainly not folding. I'm not that good.

That being said, I've been in this situation where I'm mining thinking I need to hit to win the hand, and I back my way into a hand that is just large enough for me not to fold, and I lose a bunch of money.
 
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