JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Post Oak Bluff FTW!
$2/$5 No Limit A7 sOOted (1 Viewer)
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Post Oak Bluff FTW!
Moxie Mike
Full House
I love this line of thinking. I think a bluff is unlikely to succeed, but it's the only chance Hero has to win a decent size pot, since ace-high is virtually NEVER good here unless both villians hold unpaired flush draws. Let's discuss bluff-sizing (even though IRL the 'check/fold' box is already ticked and we're watching the hand on the other monitor
). Pot is $400ish right?
It's safe to assume no one has the big end of the straight. Most likely scenario is NOBODY liked the turn card. UTG had the first shot at barreling the river and he passed the opportunity. I guess there's an outside chance he has trip Qs and is hoping for a cheap showdown, but I don't think so. I think UTG folds to a sizable bet most of the time.
So really, we only need to get the button off their hand. He probably has some showdown value, so any bet that lays 3-1 or better almost surely gets called. So we must bet more than $200 IMO.
What is he NEVER folding? All the full houses. How often will he fold the little straight? A decent amount - maybe 33%. The king-high straight goes into the muck maybe 10-15% of the time but that's not what he's holding. He's folding trip Qs probably about the same 33% of the time when he's facing river aggression. Let's assume he folds anything weaker than trips most of the time.
So if you're going to barrel here, to be successful we need the button to ponder whether hero has the nuts or nothing and hope he makes the wrong choice. A bet of $350 sounds about right if this is the line you want.
Now the problem with all this is that betting $350 to win $400 uncontested needs almost a 50% success rate to show a profit. We know the button fills up on this river a decent % of the time and he's not folding trips or the straight often enough to justify barreling here. Fun to think about though
Frogzilla
4 of a Kind
I’m not sure how often we should be bluffing three ways. If you want to do the GTO range constructs AJ or AT where we don’t block missed diamonds and block the boats and AK would be the best ones (I imagine we could call the tiny flop bet with pair+gutter). Probably not enough combos so this might be bluff too
I throw $400 in but don’t hate a check/fold three ways.
I throw $400 in but don’t hate a check/fold three ways.
The min raise from button scares me, considering all the draws on the board from a tight player. Well, with the river, any reraise on the flop has me concerned. Utg is a check/fold, check/call player; calling a raise on the flop. UTG out of position might find it in his comfort zone to trap with a k. I’m spooked, personally I would concede without any reads.
Our story is suspicious if we made a bluff. With a min raise on the flop without a 3 bet, what are we representing on the river? AQ?
Edit: I guess KQ also
Our story is suspicious if we made a bluff. With a min raise on the flop without a 3 bet, what are we representing on the river? AQ?
Edit: I guess KQ also
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JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I think if we bluff this river we are telling the story we have JJ or TT. AK does not fit checking the turn, not that flatting the flop on a wet board is a great fit either.
I think I agree with this, though AK is a flopped straight. While
is about the bottom of our range, the above hands may make better bluff candidates because they at least partially block full houses. (Though I might argue AJ has some showdown value now.). A big problem with this bluff is if we think button can play QT or QJ pf, we have no shot of getting through now.So I think paradoxically, if we bluff, we have to pick a sizing that looks like we want a call from a straight. But we want to make this bet knowing button can fold a straight, let alone AQ.
If we don't know this about the button, we are probably better off checking and giving up.
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Steve Birrer
Two Pair
Check. I don't think there is any bluff that gets both players off their hands and I suspect both hands have you beat. Don't throw anymore money at a pot you are not going to win.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Also I would say that this river card in particular means hero has pretty much lost any range advantage he had on the flop as I mentioned in my case for 3-betting the flop post. (FWIW, if I knew the offsuit 9 was coming on the turn, I 100% would 3 bet the flop )
As hero we really cannot have queens full as easily as button could. We are trying to tell the story we have a flopped set and improved, but button can have the effective nuts with QT,QJ (if we think these are pf calling hands for button) and the only way we have a queen is if it's quads.
This is probably another reason why bluffing this river is a tough idea.
)As hero we really cannot have queens full as easily as button could. We are trying to tell the story we have a flopped set and improved, but button can have the effective nuts with QT,QJ (if we think these are pf calling hands for button) and the only way we have a queen is if it's quads.
This is probably another reason why bluffing this river is a tough idea.
Forty4
Full House
The button min raise check line is interesting. I actually don’t think he is that strong. The passive calling station UTG will probably factor into his decision. I think the bigger question is will UTG continue his calling station image or has he learned that hero is crushing him and find a fold? With UTG the button is in a sandwich and think he will let go of his hand (AJ is what I think he has).
Steve Birrer
Two Pair
...and now he's got you.
gopherblue
Straight Flush
My prior post stands. Jam.
And profit.
And profit.
OP
OP
My thoughts:
On the flop, I was leaning 80/20 in favor of a raise initially. As stated I think my range is just crushing this flop with anything from pair + straight draws, to 2 pair, to all the sets to AK. I figured it would be incredibly difficult for button to call the flop raise + turn barrel if needed if a blank rolled off. Plus I had 13 outs to the nuts as backup if called. However, the UTG taking the raise to the face and calling froze me up and a call felt better given the situation.
Turn, I think we could put in a bet to set up a river bluff or value bet, but it would suck to get raised and take UTG out of the hand. I much preferred the check/call line being able to trap UTG in the middle.
River, overall this river basically summed up my weekend. Never hit a big draw! Therefore, I'm holding about the worst hand that I'll ever have in this situation, which means I should be betting. For balance, QQ, QJ, QT, JJ, TT are all in my possible range, not to mention I might bet a naked K here for value (KQ, KJ, KT) with the plan to fold to a raise given that the turn checked through. Therefore, I decided that the story would make sense and decided to make a half pot bet as that's probably what I'm going for with the K high straight. I thought about polarizing my range to just full houses by betting close to pot and HU I probably would, but given I've got two opponents I figured half pot might get the job done. I also thought that this pot being protected by UTG might mean Button would release any mediocre holding like AJ a lot more likely.
Results:
Flop ($82):
UTG checks, action on Hero who bets $55, Button thinks for a minute and raises to $110, UTG calls pretty quick, action back to Hero who calls.
Turn ($412):
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks
River ($412):
UTG checks,
On the flop, I was leaning 80/20 in favor of a raise initially. As stated I think my range is just crushing this flop with anything from pair + straight draws, to 2 pair, to all the sets to AK. I figured it would be incredibly difficult for button to call the flop raise + turn barrel if needed if a blank rolled off. Plus I had 13 outs to the nuts as backup if called. However, the UTG taking the raise to the face and calling froze me up and a call felt better given the situation.
Turn, I think we could put in a bet to set up a river bluff or value bet, but it would suck to get raised and take UTG out of the hand. I much preferred the check/call line being able to trap UTG in the middle.
River, overall this river basically summed up my weekend. Never hit a big draw! Therefore, I'm holding about the worst hand that I'll ever have in this situation, which means I should be betting. For balance, QQ, QJ, QT, JJ, TT are all in my possible range, not to mention I might bet a naked K here for value (KQ, KJ, KT) with the plan to fold to a raise given that the turn checked through. Therefore, I decided that the story would make sense and decided to make a half pot bet as that's probably what I'm going for with the K high straight. I thought about polarizing my range to just full houses by betting close to pot and HU I probably would, but given I've got two opponents I figured half pot might get the job done. I also thought that this pot being protected by UTG might mean Button would release any mediocre holding like AJ a lot more likely.
Results:
Flop ($82):
UTG checks, action on Hero who bets $55, Button thinks for a minute and raises to $110, UTG calls pretty quick, action back to Hero who calls.
Turn ($412):
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks
River ($412):
UTG checks,
Hero bets $245, Button thinks for a little bit and folds, UTG also thinks for a minutes and decides on a call.
UTG rolls over 8s9c.
UTG rolls over 8s9c.
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Steve Birrer
Two Pair
Like I said. Dont think you are getting both players to fold. We can debate all day whether the UTG call was correct. But don't forget while you are analyzing his range and play he is doing the same thing.
I think it's admirable you went for it, although against 2 players I think a larger sizing might have been better, something like $325-350. At least you didn't get snapped off. Sometimes the bluffs just don't go thru.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Wow I was giving button WAY too much credit.
But yeah, if he isn't folding that, the bet is sadly futile.
But yeah, if he isn't folding that, the bet is sadly futile.
Forty4
Full House
Button or UTG? Think you mean UTG
OP
OP
With the way the hand played out I actually think that button might have flopped a flush draw, especially given that UTG didn't have a diamond either.
Frogzilla
4 of a Kind
You know, if a half pot bet river pure bluff gets called less than 67% of the time, you have a leak and aren’t bluffing enough.
Good on you for sacking up and putting it out there. Sizing low may be good exploit if drunk UTG isn’t going to adjust his calling range properly and probably doesn’t even know what’s in the pot.
Good on you for sacking up and putting it out there. Sizing low may be good exploit if drunk UTG isn’t going to adjust his calling range properly and probably doesn’t even know what’s in the pot.
Rhodeman77
Straight Flush
UTG has the 89, I assume it was a typo you said button.
I can’t believe UTG didn’t put in the 3 bet on the flop. It is very rare that he is losing at that point but there are soooooo many bad turn cards that can come.
I can’t believe UTG didn’t put in the 3 bet on the flop. It is very rare that he is losing at that point but there are soooooo many bad turn cards that can come.
OP
OP
Fixed thanks. Yeah the flat call was odd, but maybe he wanted to see what I was going to do before putting more money in. This also speaks to maybe a 3bet is better on the flop. I dunno. It was just a very odd hand anyway you slice it.
He’s clearly playing chess and we’re playing checkers
I’m still comparatively a poker noob but this is what always gets me. I can think I know an opponent plays until they do something unexpected, so why don’t more players change up their play more often?
I get they may be trying to get a reputation on the table to do just that for a big hand or maybe doing so is just playing irradically but just something I always wonder.
Rhodeman77
Straight Flush
My “educated guess” was he was wanting to wait for a safe turn card before pouring a bunch of money into the pot. What he failed to realize is that over half the deck is a scare card to him and or the players he’s hoping to get to put more money into the pot. He should have been shoveling money in after the Button raised!!!
Any 8,9,10,J,Q,K,A, or diamond is going to either shut down his action or possibly beat him. He already had both players willing to put money into the pot at that point, he should have been testing just how much they wanted to put in!
I thought 3 bet on the flop was what I would have done, but in the end it would have cost me more.
Calling on the flop, I don’t think I would have fired on the river.
I wonder if betting on the turn would have worked to set up the bluff on the river. If the button had a flush draw, it would have taken some guts to fire the third shot.
Thanks for sharing!
Calling on the flop, I don’t think I would have fired on the river.
I wonder if betting on the turn would have worked to set up the bluff on the river. If the button had a flush draw, it would have taken some guts to fire the third shot.
Thanks for sharing!
This is why poker is still incredibly profitable, and bluffing against your average low stakes reg isn’t always the best option. You’re getting massive value in this spot with your Kx, AK, QQ, QJ, QT, Q9My thoughts:
On the flop, I was leaning 80/20 in favor of a raise initially. As stated I think my range is just crushing this flop with anything from pair + straight draws, to 2 pair, to all the sets to AK. I figured it would be incredibly difficult for button to call the flop raise + turn barrel if needed if a blank rolled off. Plus I had 13 outs to the nuts as backup if called. However, the UTG taking the raise to the face and calling froze me up and a call felt better given the situation.
Turn, I think we could put in a bet to set up a river bluff or value bet, but it would suck to get raised and take UTG out of the hand. I much preferred the check/call line being able to trap UTG in the middle.
River, overall this river basically summed up my weekend. Never hit a big draw! Therefore, I'm holding about the worst hand that I'll ever have in this situation, which means I should be betting. For balance, QQ, QJ, QT, JJ, TT are all in my possible range, not to mention I might bet a naked K here for value (KQ, KJ, KT) with the plan to fold to a raise given that the turn checked through. Therefore, I decided that the story would make sense and decided to make a half pot bet as that's probably what I'm going for with the K high straight. I thought about polarizing my range to just full houses by betting close to pot and HU I probably would, but given I've got two opponents I figured half pot might get the job done. I also thought that this pot being protected by UTG might mean Button would release any mediocre holding like AJ a lot more likely.
Results:
Flop ($82):
UTG checks, action on Hero who bets $55, Button thinks for a minute and raises to $110, UTG calls pretty quick, action back to Hero who calls.
Turn ($412):
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks
River ($412):
UTG checks,Hero bets $245, Button thinks for a little bit and folds, UTG also thinks for a minutes and decides on a call.
UTG rolls over 8s9c.
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
Let's remember the whole original premise of Hero's strategy in this hand. UTG is so transparent and sticky that Hero can profitably play most hands in position and profit from a "play the player" approach. Is this still a sound approach at the river?
It seems UTG held some sort of hand - he called bets and raises on the way to the river. Hero has nothing and now needs to hope he can bluff UTG off a hand. The same UTG he targeted, in part, because UTG calls too much, for too many chips with too weak a hand.
I appreciate the logic behind a bluff. It just seems like the villain reads before the flop somehow have changed here at the river - now we are hoping to get folds from villains we hoped to profit from their tendency to call too much.
I see all sorts of fancy "3-D chess" sorts of leveling going on when there is plenty of reason to think the villain(s) don't think that much. Do we believe UTG ranges his foes and adopts some form of merged range GTO plan? Or do we think UTG views top pair / good kicker as worthy of stacking off 400bb? For sure it isn't both.
Seems to me this is a fancy play gone wrong. Hero should be value betting, not bluffing. Sometimes you are fated to lose the hand -=- DrStrange
It seems UTG held some sort of hand - he called bets and raises on the way to the river. Hero has nothing and now needs to hope he can bluff UTG off a hand. The same UTG he targeted, in part, because UTG calls too much, for too many chips with too weak a hand.
I appreciate the logic behind a bluff. It just seems like the villain reads before the flop somehow have changed here at the river - now we are hoping to get folds from villains we hoped to profit from their tendency to call too much.
I see all sorts of fancy "3-D chess" sorts of leveling going on when there is plenty of reason to think the villain(s) don't think that much. Do we believe UTG ranges his foes and adopts some form of merged range GTO plan? Or do we think UTG views top pair / good kicker as worthy of stacking off 400bb? For sure it isn't both.
Seems to me this is a fancy play gone wrong. Hero should be value betting, not bluffing. Sometimes you are fated to lose the hand -=- DrStrange
OP
OP
Honestly, with the way UTG played the hand I assumed, incorrectly, that he was drawing. I figured at the time he might be holding diamonds, or a 9 or K on the flop. I don't think he ever folds a K on the river (even before seeing the 8), but if he's holding a bare 9 or diamonds. Therefore I figured while I had two opponents in the hand that I only needed to get through the button. Once the button folded I figured that was the end of the hand as I never expected UTG to call here.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Okay with the type fixed result makes more sense.
I think as played utg is going to have missed diamonds more often than a straight. Now you don't need to bet to beat missed diamonds, but I think you had to fold out the button. He had at least a pair based on the flop raise.
I personally like the half pot size unless you are also commit to going big on this river when you do have a full house.
So I don't think this bluff is futile because the player that called could have missed draws as well as played.
I think as played utg is going to have missed diamonds more often than a straight. Now you don't need to bet to beat missed diamonds, but I think you had to fold out the button. He had at least a pair based on the flop raise.
I personally like the half pot size unless you are also commit to going big on this river when you do have a full house.
So I don't think this bluff is futile because the player that called could have missed draws as well as played.
Steve Birrer
Two Pair
I totally fail to see the entire logic on a bluff on the river when the premise from before the hand even started was that UTG was a calling station.
Moxie Mike
Full House
I think the consensus here is that while false in this example, the assumption is that UTG has a very weak hand and will fold to virtually any aggression. UTG's hand is almost an afterthought - primary focus is on (IMO correctly) moving the button off his hand.
Thing is, it's easy to analyze this situation when we've got time to read it, then reread it, then read others' thoughts before chiming in. In retrospect, hero will likely agree that barreling the river was a low or even a negative EV move. But in the moment, it's often tough to acknowledge that despite the fact that there's a decent pot out there, letting it go without a fight is the right thing to do.
The only thing I'd prefer to see differently is that if hero is going to bluff here, I think a bet of $350 is much more appropriate. I think the chances of UTG releasing his hand go up quite a bit with a full or near pot size bet.
I wonder what hand UTG put the hero on? He did think about it for a minute before calling. It wasn’t an insta call.
The only hand he could beat would be AQ and a bluff. Just because he doesn’t know how to bet/raise wouldn’t automatically make him a calling station. Clearly he has a lot to learn, but I would like to think he was calling a bluff. I agree with @Moxie Mike a pot size bet would have significantly increased his chances to fold.
The only hand he could beat would be AQ and a bluff. Just because he doesn’t know how to bet/raise wouldn’t automatically make him a calling station. Clearly he has a lot to learn, but I would like to think he was calling a bluff. I agree with @Moxie Mike a pot size bet would have significantly increased his chances to fold.
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