2/5 Hand at Bellagio (1 Viewer)

Highli99

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Pretty clear call. The question is whether you want to try to influence an over call or fold from BB acting after you. I’m inclined to want the overcall here so I’d channel reluctant feelings and look to my left a few times for reads before calling. I’d push my chips in too rather than doing a one chip call.
 

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MrCatPants

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Let's bring it home:

SB- younger guy, when stacked twice on strong pre-flop holdings that he can't lay down on bad flops - $400
BB - younger guy, talks like a "poker dork", $700
UTG + 1 - OMC type, barely know he's there - $400
UTG + 2 - New local pro, been sun-running most of the session, aggressive opener and 3-bettor - $2000
MP (HERO) - Tight image, hasn't shown down more than 3 hands, but did lose all three of those hero calls - $450
CO - Drunk maniac who has been very active and somehow winning - $900
HJ - Tight-ish ABC player. seems to think he's getting bluffed more often than he is - $300
BTN - OMC type, barely know he's there - $600

UTG + 1 folds
UTG + 2 opens to $20
Hero looks down at :qc::jc:.

Hero thinks for a bit as he does not like this spot in this position and then CALLS.
CO CALLS
Folds to BB, who CALLS

Pot is $82.

Flop comes :qs::jd::5s:

BB checks
UTG + 2 downbets to $25
Hero RAISES to $95
CO INSTAFOLDS
BB tanks for half a minute and CALLS.
UTG + 2 tanks for over a minute and then moves ALL IN (keep in mind, I'm the short stack - this is a much bigger move against BB.) My read on his body language is 'well, I'm not folding, so let's get it in here' - not the kind of body language you'd expect from the QQ/JJ under the bed monsters.
Hero snap CALLS.
BB tanks. And I mean megatanks. Counts out his whole stack, calculates against the pot, does it again. After about 4 minutes he folds. Makes me feel good that he likely has some of other villian's outs.

We never find out what BB had.

UTG + 2 looks over at me and says "I have a gutter and a flush draw" and flips over :ks::9s:.

He asks me "top 2 or set of 5s?" I flip over my QJ and he nods.

Drills the flush on the furn. No Q or J on the river. I go to my family event a few minutes earlier than expected.
 

Senzrock

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Let's bring it home:

SB- younger guy, when stacked twice on strong pre-flop holdings that he can't lay down on bad flops - $400
BB - younger guy, talks like a "poker dork", $700
UTG + 1 - OMC type, barely know he's there - $400
UTG + 2 - New local pro, been sun-running most of the session, aggressive opener and 3-bettor - $2000
MP (HERO) - Tight image, hasn't shown down more than 3 hands, but did lose all three of those hero calls - $450
CO - Drunk maniac who has been very active and somehow winning - $900
HJ - Tight-ish ABC player. seems to think he's getting bluffed more often than he is - $300
BTN - OMC type, barely know he's there - $600

UTG + 1 folds
UTG + 2 opens to $20
Hero looks down at :qc::jc:.

Hero thinks for a bit as he does not like this spot in this position and then CALLS.
CO CALLS
Folds to BB, who CALLS

Pot is $82.

Flop comes :qs::jd::5s:

BB checks
UTG + 2 downbets to $25
Hero RAISES to $95
CO INSTAFOLDS
BB tanks for half a minute and CALLS.
UTG + 2 tanks for over a minute and then moves ALL IN (keep in mind, I'm the short stack - this is a much bigger move against BB.) My read on his body language is 'well, I'm not folding, so let's get it in here' - not the kind of body language you'd expect from the QQ/JJ under the bed monsters.
Hero snap CALLS.
BB tanks. And I mean megatanks. Counts out his whole stack, calculates against the pot, does it again. After about 4 minutes he folds. Makes me feel good that he likely has some of other villian's outs.

We never find out what BB had.

UTG + 2 looks over at me and says "I have a gutter and a flush draw" and flips over :ks::9s:.

He asks me "top 2 or set of 5s?" I flip over my QJ and he nods.

Drills the flush on the furn. No Q or J on the river. I go to my family event a few minutes earlier than expected.
K9s - see how wide they are in these spots @boltonguy ! lol - I'm telling you, live is another beast, you can't assign so narrow of a range. We did exactly what we wanted here (needed to raise bigger on the flop), and just got unlucky against a monster draw - hey it happens.

Fun hand, thanks for sharing!
 

MrCatPants

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And for my best example of his sunrunning - A pot gets all in preflop for about $800 each. He asks the other guy: "Are we chopping?" The other guy says "I hope so - Ace king?" sunrunner nods - both AKo.

Sunrunner only has one live flush card to the other guy's two. Boom, 4 spades, sunrunner scoops.
 

Senzrock

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It's a good exercise: ask yourself honestly - would you rather get all the money in on this flop here or would you rather have smooth called flop and then (I assume folded?) the turn. It's a good mental exercise because if your answer is that you would rather smooth call to "see what happens" then what you are basically saying is that you will give up a big chunk of equity in these spots. In retrospect, vs this kind of profile, we can in fact 3bet preflop but it probably doesn't end up changing anything because this villain isn't folding these hands off a $2k stack imo.
 

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K9s - see how wide they are in these spots @boltonguy ! lol - I'm telling you, live is another beast, you can't assign so narrow of a range. We did exactly what we wanted here (needed to raise bigger on the flop), and just got unlucky against a monster draw - hey it happens.

Fun hand, thanks for sharing!
This.

Live ranges are just so much wider than online. While assuming people are playing normal ranges will still win you the money, you will lose out on tons of value in spots in live games.

I still think talking through normal ranges and figuring out what to do is worthwhile, but it's important to discuss things in live play that can be better, especially when you aren't playing against the same people over and over.

Also, most solvers fall apart in multiway pots where the ranges are all over the place. I'm not sure I would even use them in multiway pots very often.
 

Legend5555

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It's a good exercise: ask yourself honestly - would you rather get all the money in on this flop here or would you rather have smooth called flop and then (I assume folded?) the turn. It's a good mental exercise because if your answer is that you would rather smooth call to "see what happens" then what you are basically saying is that you will give up a big chunk of equity in these spots. In retrospect, vs this kind of profile, we can in fact 3bet preflop but it probably doesn't end up changing anything because this villain isn't folding these hands off a $2k stack imo.
The one thing 3! does is try to get heads up. And against better players, it will help define their range. On a sub 100bb stack though, 3! can put us in some awkward spots when all we flop is top pair. But usually, it's still good to just 3! to knock out the players behind you and help define ranges.
 

MrCatPants

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It's a good exercise: ask yourself honestly - would you rather get all the money in on this flop here or would you rather have smooth called flop and then (I assume folded?) the turn. It's a good mental exercise because if your answer is that you would rather smooth call to "see what happens" then what you are basically saying is that you will give up a big chunk of equity in these spots. In retrospect, vs this kind of profile, we can in fact 3bet preflop but it probably doesn't end up changing anything because this villain isn't folding these hands off a $2k stack imo.
Agree with all of this. If he was only flush draw, maybe if I play it slower and then on the turn bet pot or go all in he gets away from it on a brick turn, but with this hand the money is getting in somewhere on the flop or turn - and its in my long term interest for it too. I'm ahead here a good majority of the time.

That said...should he cbet this flop multiway with this holding? Holding the k or 10 of spades definitely matters as it eliminates tons of combo draws.
 

Senzrock

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Agree with all of this. If he was only flush draw, maybe if I play it slower and then on the turn bet pot or go all in he gets away from it on a brick turn, but with this hand the money is getting in somewhere on the flop or turn - and its in my long term interest for it too. I'm ahead here a good majority of the time.

That said...should he cbet this flop multiway with this holding? Holding the k or 10 of spades definitely matters as it eliminates tons of combo draws.
Yeah, I think in villains shoes, given not much action preflop, he is thinking that he can see a cheap turn while still holding onto the betting lead (maybe fold out some smaller pairs that he actually is behind) - I like the bet for that reason. Now... once hero raises (and again, you can't help but wonder if raising to $150 would make any difference here, maybe not as we discussed), but once hero raises and villain #2 calls... I don't love UTG's shove because hero shouldn't be raise folding many hands, especially if he hasn't played a ton of hands. I think UTG can make a profitable smooth call and check-fold on a lot of turns to hero. This is all from UTG's perspective of course but it's interesting to try to put ourselves in his shoes as well. So I like his probing down bet but I actually don't like his shove unless stacks were considerably deeper and he could apply more pressure (have actual fold equity).
 

MrCatPants

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Yeah, I think in villains shoes, given not much action preflop, he is thinking that he can see a cheap turn while still holding onto the betting lead (maybe fold out some smaller pairs that he actually is behind) - I like the bet for that reason. Now... once hero raises (and again, you can't help but wonder if raising to $150 would make any difference here, maybe not as we discussed), but once hero raises and villain #2 calls... I don't love UTG's shove because hero shouldn't be raise folding many hands, especially if he hasn't played a ton of hands. I think UTG can make a profitable smooth call and check-fold on a lot of turns to hero. This is all from UTG's perspective of course but it's interesting to try to put ourselves in his shoes as well. So I like his probing down bet but I actually don't like his shove unless stacks were considerably deeper and he could apply more pressure (have actual fold equity).
Yeah...I took his shove as a move against BB incase he was on a k10 Ax of spades type of hand. Any flush card or Broadway or paired card likely kills the action and so implied equity against me is likely low.
 

Senzrock

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Yeah...I took his shove as a move against BB incase he was on a k10 Ax of spades type of hand. Any flush card or Broadway or paired card likely kills the action and so implied equity against me is likely low.
Exactly. And if we had raised to say $150, his implied equity would be even lower right because now he knows we are never folding. I wonder if he thought your raise was a "find out where I'm at" raise (my least favorite play in poker) and figured he had at least ~25% in fold equity with his large shove. This is what I love about poker - every single part of a prior decision point can have a huge impact on later decisions/outcomes. We should all try to get as good as we can at bet sizing.
 

Taghkanic

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Just got back from a Vegas trip. Only had time for a single poker session - sat down at a 2/5 game at the Bellagio. About 5 hours into the session I'm effectively treading water. One of those days where all my draws are missing, all my opponents draws are coming in so I'm starting to get a little antsy. Also, have to head out in less than an hour to go to a family event.

8 handed on this one:

SB- younger guy, when stacked twice on strong pre-flop holdings that he can't lay down on bad flops - $400
BB - younger guy, talks like a "poker dork", $700
UTG + 1 - OMC type, barely know he's there - $400
UTG + 2 - New local pro, been sun-running most of the session, aggressive opener and 3-bettor - $2000
MP (HERO) - Tight image, hasn't shown down more than 3 hands, but did lose all three of those hero calls - $450
CO - Drunk maniac who has been very active and somehow winning - $900
HJ - Tight-ish ABC player. seems to think he's getting bluffed more often than he is - $300
BTN - OMC type, barely know he's there - $600

UTG + 1 folds
UTG + 2 opens to $20
Hero looks down at :qc::jc:.

Action on Hero.

Somewhat off-topic but… Does 2/5 at the Bellagio always play this shallow? I’m amazed how few BB most of the table has.
 

Senzrock

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Somewhat off-topic but… Does 2/5 at the Bellagio always play this shallow? I’m amazed how few BB most of the table has.
Seems like UTG villain grabbed all the money - but yeah even so is this not a 1k max? Could be 2/5 - $500 cap?
 

MrCatPants

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Exactly. And if we had raised to say $150, his implied equity would be even lower right because now he knows we are never folding. I wonder if he thought your raise was a "find out where I'm at" raise (my least favorite play in poker) and figured he had at least ~25% in fold equity with his large shove. This is what I love about poker - every single part of a prior decision point can have a huge impact on later decisions/outcomes. We should

Seems like UTG villain grabbed all the money - but yeah even so is this not a 1k max? Could be 2/5 - $500 cap?
Yup 500 cap. 2/5 Vegas smaller than 1/3 Texas. Thought about moving to 5/10 after a couple orbits.
 
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Pretty clear call. The question is whether you want to try to influence an over call or fold from BB acting after you. I’m inclined to want the overcall here so I’d channel reluctant feelings and look to my left a few times for reads before calling. I’d push my chips in too rather than doing a one chip call.

We need more analysis on these types of performances, how people respond to them and what others tend to have when they do it.

I haven’t seen anything other than mike caros book of tells.
 

ParrotheadMZ

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I had near exact same hand last week. I had QJ flop was same with flush draw.
Villain had K9 with gutter and flush draw got all in but he hit the 10 for the strait and like you no QJ on the River.
Busto lol
 

Senzrock

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We need more analysis on these types of performances, how people respond to them and what others tend to have when they do it.

I haven’t seen anything other than mike caros book of tells.
Mike Caro's book is unfortunately pretty worthless - I think this can only come from experience playing live.
 
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i don't know, there're tons of live streamed games out there, someone could probably document specific behaviors, what the person has, and how people respond to it.
 

Senzrock

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i don't know, there're tons of live streamed games out there, someone could probably document specific behaviors, what the person has, and how people respond to it.
I think that is pretty optimistic lol - many of the pros on the streams are not giving off that kind of information. Caro was writing in the 80s, during a very different time in poker.
 

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Good discussion. I thought about my sizing a lot here - ended up doing the below. This is where it gets interesting. Your responses should reflect the range of hands you feel are being represented here.

I think most of the possible thoughts are out there now, so will continue...

SB- younger guy, when stacked twice on strong pre-flop holdings that he can't lay down on bad flops - $400
BB - younger guy, talks like a "poker dork", $700
UTG + 1 - OMC type, barely know he's there - $400
UTG + 2 - New local pro, been sun-running most of the session, aggressive opener and 3-bettor - $2000
MP (HERO) - Tight image, hasn't shown down more than 3 hands, but did lose all three of those hero calls - $450
CO - Drunk maniac who has been very active and somehow winning - $900
HJ - Tight-ish ABC player. seems to think he's getting bluffed more often than he is - $300
BTN - OMC type, barely know he's there - $600

UTG + 1 folds
UTG + 2 opens to $20
Hero looks down at :qc::jc:.

Hero thinks for a bit as he does not like this spot in this position and then CALLS.
CO CALLS
Folds to BB, who CALLS

Pot is $82.

Flop comes :qs::jd::5s:

BB checks
UTG + 2 downbets to $25
Hero RAISES to $95
CO INSTAFOLDS
BB tanks for half a minute and CALLS.
UTG + 2 tanks for over a minute and then moves ALL IN (keep in mind, I'm the short stack - this is a much bigger move against BB.) My read on his body language is 'well, I'm not folding, so let's get it in here' - not the kind of body language you'd expect from the QQ/JJ under the bed monsters.
-First off, nice bet. You seem to fall right in the sweet spot of betting small for value and betting huge.

I will say this....this is NOT the outcome we expected or wanted. However, I think we are ahead of a large portion of the ranges and we are getting FANTASTIC odds to call it off here. I think we just have to call here, knowing that we only need to win like 25% of the time to be profitable.

Ranges:
-BB- any pair. two pair worse than ours or even QJ himself. All the flush and straight draws (probably even gutshots). MAYBE 55...but I even discount this hand since he only flatted instead of raising. I don't think he has us beat yet.

UTG2- All the sets, but they are all heavily discounted....55 being the most likely since we heavily block the other two, but 55 from his early position may or may not be and open. AA (particularly with Aspades) and KK, AK spades, any combo draw...for instance JTs, Nut flush draws, open end straight draws....maybe AQ? Also, he can easily have QJ as well.

**Also of note, if either of these guys do have 55, we have 4 outs to catch up.

Call.
 

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And for what it's worth no one has gotten UTG + 2s hand correct yet. In the neighborhood though.
You should NOT be guessing his EXACT hand....you should be putting him on ranges of hands based on the action, and how well you are doing against ALL OF THEM.
 

grebe

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Is a pair of 5s an open raise from UTG2? It is for me, but most people flat this, no??
Not decent players....especially not pros.

EDIT: yes, you are correct. MOST players do indeed flat this. My above comment stands though.
 
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grebe

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Yeah, I think in villains shoes, given not much action preflop, he is thinking that he can see a cheap turn while still holding onto the betting lead (maybe fold out some smaller pairs that he actually is behind) - I like the bet for that reason. Now... once hero raises (and again, you can't help but wonder if raising to $150 would make any difference here, maybe not as we discussed), but once hero raises and villain #2 calls... I don't love UTG's shove because hero shouldn't be raise folding many hands, especially if he hasn't played a ton of hands. I think UTG can make a profitable smooth call and check-fold on a lot of turns to hero. This is all from UTG's perspective of course but it's interesting to try to put ourselves in his shoes as well. So I like his probing down bet but I actually don't like his shove unless stacks were considerably deeper and he could apply more pressure (have actual fold equity).
Fold equity works even if you don't get folds from everyone, and this hand is a prime example of this.

Say top two pair against a gutter and a flush draw is 50/50 here. It's actually quite a bit better than that, but let's just say it's an even coin flip. Both players put in $500 to see the runout...so neither player really wins or loses here in the long run. That's IF the total of the pot is only $1000. It's more than that because of the BB's dead money...he has put in $110 and no longer has any equity in the pot....because he folded. Now, the two players remaining share his equity...they are putting in $500 to win $1100, so they each profit $50 every time this play comes up in the long run. This is a +ev move, and one of the many tools in the toolbox of a grinder. Get into enough of these day in and day out, and you can make a living exploiting these spots.
 

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The one thing 3! does is try to get heads up. And against better players, it will help define their range. On a sub 100bb stack though, 3! can put us in some awkward spots when all we flop is top pair. But usually, it's still good to just 3! to knock out the players behind you and help define ranges.

A 3! also sets us up to win the hand either right now without going to the flop or on the flop with a Cbet.

Yes, we can also get into tight spots three betting. That's no reason to not do it though. Sometimes, our opponent will have AA. More often than not, he will have some bullshit....l don't know, like K9.
 

Senzrock

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Fold equity works even if you don't get folds from everyone, and this hand is a prime example of this.

Say top two pair against a gutter and a flush draw is 50/50 here. It's actually quite a bit better than that, but let's just say it's an even coin flip. Both players put in $500 to see the runout...so neither player really wins or loses here in the long run. That's IF the total of the pot is only $1000. It's more than that because of the BB's dead money...he has put in $110 and no longer has any equity in the pot....because he folded. Now, the two players remaining share his equity...they are putting in $500 to win $1100, so they each profit $50 every time this play comes up in the long run. This is a +ev move, and one of the many tools in the toolbox of a grinder. Get into enough of these day in and day out, and you can make a living exploiting these spots.
Just a note that our top 2 pair is nearly 59% here, it’s far from a 50/50 flip. Our opponent is around 41%. It may seem like semantics but it’s a fairly large difference. Because of this, and because of the dead money you noted, we very much got the outcome that we wanted over the long run.
 
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