2/5 Hand at Bellagio (1 Viewer)

Senzrock

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Yeah this is a relatively easy raise/get in spot. We aren't folding top 2 pair ever in this spot on this draw heavy board. I think we (maybe @boltonguy specifically) are paying way too much attention to potential nutted hands that have us in bad shape. We should not be focused on the few % of the time we get coolered vs sets, we should be focusing on how to get the money in. Remember we only have ~$400 behind so we can't play scared money here. We have to figure out a way to get it all in the middle. Hopefully one of our opponents has the overpair, AQ or the combo draw and they want to get it in with us!
 

Senzrock

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I'm not talking about the turn. The trap would be to flat call the flop, with 2 other players left behind to act on the flop, in hopes that one of them might raise the $25 bet. If one of them has a raising hand -- that's the trap -- they could raise the flop. If we flat call the flop, one of the 2 opponents might have a real hand, and they might likely put us on a draw, and raise the flop to get the draws to pay -- (little do they know we have top 2!), and then the OP might come along and call their raise if they have a hand. It's definitely a situation-dependent and read-dependent move based on other players at the table.

Just calling the flop with 2 players behind might give the players behind us some rope to raise some of their hands (either legitimate hands or draws as a semi-bluff), where if we raised the flop, they might fold many of those hands.
I see the argument but I think overall we just end up seeing the dreaded turn 3 or 4-ways here as played. Once that happens, we are rarely confident moving forward. If you had some sort of strong live read that someone behind us was interested.... maybe some % of the time we can flat here, but again, we aren't really that deep considering our stacks so I don't like getting too fancy.
 

boltonguy

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Yeah this is a relatively easy raise/get in spot. We aren't folding top 2 pair ever in this spot on this draw heavy board. I think we (maybe @boltonguy specifically) are paying way too much attention to potential nutted hands that have us in bad shape. We should not be focused on the few % of the time we get coolered vs sets, we should be focusing on how to get the money in. Remember we only have ~$400 behind so we can't play scared money here. We have to figure out a way to get it all in the middle. Hopefully one of our opponents has the overpair, AQ or the combo draw and they want to get it in with us!
I'm raising here to $85, a medium size - just basing my bet size on the size of our nut advantage (or disadvantage) vs the field based on a GTO training video I watched recently ;)
 

MrCatPants

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Yeah this is a relatively easy raise/get in spot. We aren't folding top 2 pair ever in this spot on this draw heavy board. I think we (maybe @boltonguy specifically) are paying way too much attention to potential nutted hands that have us in bad shape. We should not be focused on the few % of the time we get coolered vs sets, we should be focusing on how to get the money in. Remember we only have ~$400 behind so we can't play scared money here. We have to figure out a way to get it all in the middle. Hopefully one of our opponents has the overpair, AQ or the combo draw and they want to get it in with us!
How much are you raising to?

And that's really the question to everyone I think. It's almost a must raise. But how much given three players who will then be able to act again?
 

Senzrock

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How much are you raising to?

And that's really the question to everyone I think. It's almost a must raise. But how much given three players who will then be able to act again?
I'm raising on the larger side. $80 is almost a min raise in this spot. No draws are folding with that kind of sizing. If we want to get value from what is 95% likely to be the best hand here, I think $140-$150 is a nice size. We should be able to shove turn for a nice pot sized bet as long as we size up flop.
 

Senzrock

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I'm raising here to $85, a medium size - just basing my bet size on the size of our nut advantage (or disadvantage) vs the field based on a GTO training video I watched recently ;)
I'm a big fan of GTO as a concept, but you're going to go broke trying to apply those advanced GTO videos in live small(er) stakes cash games my friend! Find a balanced playing style yes, but err on the side of raising big in multi-way pots when you got the nuts!
 

Senzrock

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I'm a big fan of GTO as a concept, but you're going to go broke trying to apply those advanced GTO videos in live small(er) stakes cash games my friend! Find a balanced playing style yes, but err on the side of raising big in multi-way pots when you got the nuts!
This is actually a concept that deserves more discussion but to recap in short:

Hero is not playing here as his regular game. In fact he will not be (likely) ever playing at this table with these players again. He does not have to worry about staying balanced here. He has only shown down losing hands so far so our image is good actually in that sense. If this was at a home game, with regular players, I think we can mix in the occassional flat on the flop, especially if we have *strong* reads (aka many sessions of experience) vs the two villains behind us. Since we don't, we want to shovel the money in!
 

boltonguy

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I'm a big fan of GTO as a concept, but you're going to go broke trying to apply those advanced GTO videos in live small(er) stakes cash games my friend! Find a balanced playing style yes, but err on the side of raising big in multi-way pots when you got the nuts!
I'd raise big with the nuts. We dont have the nuts here. QQ and JJ are in +1's range. 55 and possibly JJ are in the CO/blinds ranges.
We do block combos of QQ & JJ but there is still one combo out there of each.
 

Senzrock

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I'd raise big with the nuts. We dont have the nuts here. QQ and JJ are in +1's range. 55 and possibly JJ are in the CO/blinds ranges.
We do block combos of QQ & JJ but there is still one combo out there of each.
Exactly, we block most of the key combos as you said. So, yes, we can get coolered, as we can on any given hand, but I am arguing that we are paying that possibility to much mind. This is one of the single biggest leaks of smaller stakes players imo - being worried about "monsters under the bed". Let me ask you a question - if we raise this flop to say $130 and UTG villain jams for the remaining $400 effective, are you ever folding? If you are - I would suggest you are making way too tight of a fold vs opponent profile and given stack sizes. If you are not, I think it would go to show that we want to build this pot any way we can on the flop right? Villain will get the last few hundred in vs us with such hands as AA/KK/AKs, 98s, KTs, AQ etc.
 

moechar

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I'd raise big with the nuts. We dont have the nuts here. QQ and JJ are in +1's range. 55 and possibly JJ are in the CO/blinds ranges.
We do block combos of QQ & JJ but there is still one combo out there of each.
I'm no elite poker player at all so, take my opinion with a grain of salt lol. But I think you're leaving a lot of money on the table/putting yourself in a dangerous situation if you're going to 3bet smaller because there is still two combos of hands we're losing to. Those are only 2 possible hands when there are way more combos/hands we're ahead of that we would want to charge a heavier price to see the turn and river.
 

Senzrock

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In any hand, we want to always be trying to win the most we can in a hand and lose the least. Now, there is a delicate balance to this, especially in certain key situations. The concepts can feel a little contradictory because if we are trying to "win the most" we sometimes end up "losing (more) than the least" right? So we have to make decisions, and one of the deciding factors should be stack sizes, which play a key role in this hand. If we were $2k deep with villain, I think all sorts of options present themselves to us, including potentially flatting this flop. But since we have ~$400 behind, this decision is made for us. We want to lean on the "try to win the most" side and with that we will have to let go of that "lose the least" part of our brain (not easy to do!)
 

moose

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I'm no elite poker player at all so, take my opinion with a grain of salt lol. But I think you're leaving a lot of money on the table/putting yourself in a dangerous situation if you're going to 3bet smaller because there is still two combos of hands we're losing to. Those are only 2 possible hands when there are way more combos/hands we're ahead of that we would want to charge a heavier price to see the turn and river.
Agree. If you are raising smaller then you have to also be capable of laying it down if a draw card hits the turn. If you aren't going to be able to do that, then commit yourself on the flop to being allin by the river.
 

Senzrock

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Agree. If you are raising smaller then you have to also be capable of laying it down if a draw card hits the turn. If you aren't going to be able to do that, then commit yourself on the flop to being allin by the river.
Yup - AND you face an additional obstacle of occasionally making a horrendous lay down on future streets vs aggressive opponents who will put you to the test when some draws (but not their own) do come in.
 

JMC9389

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I'm with @Senzrock here.

Hero's hand here is severely underepped with the flat call preflop in a multi way flop. Flat calling gives hero good fold equity if hero bricks the flop. Flush over flush is rare, and you can't play this hand scared of monsters under the bed, but if two underclubs come on the flop (not the king or ace of clubs), what's hero's plan then? This is a spot I would hate to be in and would be why I would fold to any three or four bet pre. This particular table seems pretty loose, and I don't hate a three bet either. A fold is way too tight also.

Anyway, as played, I'm trying to get as much into the pot on that flop as I can. Especially with the diamond draw out there, I would reraise on a large side with the intention of shipping it on any safe looking turn.
 
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redwine

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Raise $160. $160 is not that big; pot-sized bet would be $185.

Then jam turn for 2/3 pot.

edit: on safe turns
 

MrCatPants

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Good discussion. I thought about my sizing a lot here - ended up doing the below. This is where it gets interesting. Your responses should reflect the range of hands you feel are being represented here.

I think most of the possible thoughts are out there now, so will continue...

SB- younger guy, when stacked twice on strong pre-flop holdings that he can't lay down on bad flops - $400
BB - younger guy, talks like a "poker dork", $700
UTG + 1 - OMC type, barely know he's there - $400
UTG + 2 - New local pro, been sun-running most of the session, aggressive opener and 3-bettor - $2000
MP (HERO) - Tight image, hasn't shown down more than 3 hands, but did lose all three of those hero calls - $450
CO - Drunk maniac who has been very active and somehow winning - $900
HJ - Tight-ish ABC player. seems to think he's getting bluffed more often than he is - $300
BTN - OMC type, barely know he's there - $600

UTG + 1 folds
UTG + 2 opens to $20
Hero looks down at :qc::jc:.

Hero thinks for a bit as he does not like this spot in this position and then CALLS.
CO CALLS
Folds to BB, who CALLS

Pot is $82.

Flop comes :qs::jd::5s:

BB checks
UTG + 2 downbets to $25
Hero RAISES to $95
CO INSTAFOLDS
BB tanks for half a minute and CALLS.
UTG + 2 tanks for over a minute and then moves ALL IN (keep in mind, I'm the short stack - this is a much bigger move against BB.) My read on his body language is 'well, I'm not folding, so let's get it in here' - not the kind of body language you'd expect from the QQ/JJ under the bed monsters.

Action on hero.

And regardless of action, what are you putting the players on? If we call is BB calling?
 
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Senzrock

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Good discussion. I thought about my sizing a lot here - ended up doing the below. This is where it gets interesting. Your responses should reflect the range of hands you feel are being represented here.

I think most of the possible thoughts are out there now, so will continue...

SB- younger guy, when stacked twice on strong pre-flop holdings that he can't lay down on bad flops - $400
BB - younger guy, talks like a "poker dork", $700
UTG + 1 - OMC type, barely know he's there - $400
UTG + 2 - New local pro, been sun-running most of the session, aggressive opener and 3-bettor - $2000
MP (HERO) - Tight image, hasn't shown down more than 3 hands, but did lose all three of those hero calls - $450
CO - Drunk maniac who has been very active and somehow winning - $900
HJ - Tight-ish ABC player. seems to think he's getting bluffed more often than he is - $300
BTN - OMC type, barely know he's there - $600

UTG + 1 folds
UTG + 2 opens to $20
Hero looks down at :qc::jc:.

Hero thinks for a bit as he does not like this spot in this position and then CALLS.
CO CALLS
Folds to BB, who CALLS

Pot is $82.

Flop comes :qs::jd::5s:

BB checks
UTG + 2 downbets to $25
Hero RAISES to $95
CO INSTAFOLDS
BB tanks for half a minute and CALLS.
UTG +1 tanks for over a minute and then moves ALL IN (keep in mind, I'm the short stack - this is a much bigger move against BB.) My read on his body language is 'well, I'm not folding, so let's get it in here' - not the kind of body language you'd expect from the QQ/JJ under the bed monsters.

Action on hero.

And regardless of action, what are you putting the players on? If we call is BB calling?
I am going to go with UTG having the AQ/KK type of hand and not feeling great about it but hoping that he is up against your KQs type of hand. He is playing off a huge stack and not in the mood to fold this holding for a few hundred more. Player behind us has some kind of draw, was doing the math, and will probably just end up calling it off once you call since he is getting such good odds (bonus prediction: the draw comes in to scoop or KK get there with another 5 that pairs the board!)
 

JMC9389

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UTG +1 I think has the ace of spades with another spade or AK, KQ, KJ with the over spade.

BB will opt to fold if they tanked before calling your raise and likely won't love a three way all in with a smaller flush draw or smaller two pair or single pair hand.

Ship it!
 

Senzrock

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UTG +1 I think has the ace of spades with another spade or AK, KQ, KJ with the over spade.

BB will opt to fold if they tanked before calling your raise and likely won't love a three way all in with a smaller flush draw or smaller two pair or single pair hand.

Ship it!
AK or AT ss very possible for UTG agreed. Either way I feel good about our spot!
 

JMC9389

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Well first I puke, then I tank.
Not puking for me. Pretty easy jam here, IMO. I'll save the puking if UTG + 1 flips over queens, Jack's, fives, or their flush comes in though.
 

colter ripton

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Agree with @Senzrock. We are trying to get all out money in the pot. If we can't get it in on the flop we need to on any favorable turn. If we get coolered we get coolered. Top 2 pair on a board like this is played basically the same as bottom set.

If we can't get it in on the flop we might be able to lay it down on the turn if a really bad card hits. Other than that we are planning to jam turn on any decent card.
 

colter ripton

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Once raised behind we just go ahead and get it in. We can be up against many draws and overpairs. We are most likely ahead on this flop and should feel pretty good getting it in here.
 

MrCatPants

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Some of you are wimping out on the hand reading :) Call some shots!

I posted this as a hand reading exercise - as hero's action here I think is 100% clear.
 

MrCatPants

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And for what it's worth no one has gotten UTG + 2s hand correct yet. In the neighborhood though.
 
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boltonguy

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I think we must call here as a decent favorite

1642630547316.png


UTG +2:

1642630462935.png


BB:
1642630517059.png
 
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