2/5/10 PLO hand river decision (1 Viewer)

Anthony Martino

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We are playing 2/5 PLO with a $10 rock which is on Hero

SB $200
BB $175
Hijack $2,300
Hero (button) $1,900

SB limps, BB limps. Hijack makes it $25

Hijack is active, competent LAG, although his hand selection can be very speculative holdings, he makes up for it with positional aggression

Hero is button and elects to call $15 more with


:4s::5h::6s::9h:

SB and BB call, flop

:3h::6c::jh:

Checked to Hijack who fires $75, Hero calls, SB folds, BB shoves for $150, Hijack calls, Hero calls


Turn :9d:

Hijack bets $350, Hero calls

River :5c:

Hijack bets $1,100

Hero???
 
I'm far from a competent PLO player, but how do you range your opponent? Seems like a pretty speculative hand to play for stacks, no?
 
Don’t really love Hero’s call on the turn. Board is draw heavy, there is a good chance Hero is ahead, and even if Hijack is ahead, Hero likely has many outs. So I probably raise the turn.

Now that Hero has called, the river decision is tough. Hearts didn’t get home, and some of the straight draws didn’t get home. I doubt villain is value betting anything worse than a set, and you have blockers. A big part of this is a read on villain. How likely is villain to run a bluff here? You have to call $1100 to win $1800 in the side pot and, if you call, you have the potential to win the main also. You only have to be right a little more than a third of the time to justify a call.

Without much of a read on villain other than your description of him as a LAG, I probably call.
 
My thought process is he's polarized to JJ or 78 Given the action I ruled out 78, and even JJ has to be worried a straight got there, making it harder to bet, figured more bluffs in his range in this spot, one pair hands I beat with my two pair
 
My thought process is he's polarized to JJ or 78 Given the action I ruled out 78, and even JJ has to be worried a straight got there, making it harder to bet, figured more bluffs in his range in this spot, one pair hands I beat with my two pair
Not sure I would go quite as far in terms of saying he could only have JJ/78 and that 78 can be ruled out, since he could’ve potted a flush draw on the flop. But I agree that, if he knows what he’s doing and is aggressive, there are a lot of bluffs in his range.
 
Not sure I would go quite as far in terms of saying he could only have JJ/78 and that 78 can be ruled out, since he could’ve potted a flush draw on the flop. But I agree that, if he knows what he’s doing and is aggressive, there are a lot of bluffs in his range.

I mean hands that beat me, his range is polarized to those or bluffs
 
I mean hands that beat me, his range is polarized to those or bluffs
Understood ... I just wouldn’t agree that those are the only hands he could have that beat you. How about A874 with nut hearts and similar combinations with nut hearts. 4578 wrap (with or without hearts) is also possible.
 
I think hijack could have a hand like T987 with hearts. Easy hand that raises pref, fires flop/calls a raise and then is happy bombing off turn with tons of equity, smashes river. I don't want to play for stacks here ever and calling turn feels a bit spewy as it's a dry side pot. River call would be terrible.


Probably not his only holding, but is my guess for the most likely. I'm not loving preflop with the 2 gapper at the top. Don't mind it at the bottom, but this is a really speculative holding and might be best to fold PF as you will be dominanted by better draws often.
 
I’d have to have seen villain make a pot sized river bluff in the past to call here. Don’t forget he still has to show down to win the main pot. He has to have show down value here no matter what. We can’t even beat any kind of Jacks up. I fold here. And probably fold in the turn even.
 
Given his river bet I can't put him on anything that beats me except 87 or JJ

Any higher two pair I expect him to check given the possible straight

All other bets outside those nutted hands are going to be bluffs. If he pushes me out, he wins the side pot, putting him ahead even if he loses the main pot

I considered a turn raise given I picked up 2 pair to go with my combo draw, maybe should've pulled the trigger there
 
Hero could have gotten away from this on the flop too. When HJ bets $75 Hero doesn’t close the action with a call the BB is only ever shoving if he continues which is the perfect amount for HJ to repot to isolate the BB and thus causing Hero to light $75 on fire in the first place.

I will add that this hand is highly speculative and can get players in a lot of trouble when they hit. Hero has said before he is pretty new to PLO, these are hand he should be avoiding until he feels much more comfortable overall in the game.
 
Hero could have gotten away from this on the flop too. When HJ bets $75 Hero doesn’t close the action with a call the BB is only ever shoving if he continues which is the perfect amount for HJ to repot to isolate the BB and thus causing Hero to light $75 on fire in the first place.

I will add that this hand is highly speculative and can get players in a lot of trouble when they hit. Hero has said before he is pretty new to PLO, these are hand he should be avoiding until he feels much more comfortable overall in the game.
So I guess the two of us must feel comfortable as hell? I’ve seen us play worse!

1B80F8DF-A327-40E6-A3E1-4E4AEA6BBF4F.gif
 
We are playing 2/5 PLO with a $10 rock which is on Hero

SB $200
BB $175
Hijack $2,300
Hero (button) $1,900

SB limps, BB limps. Hijack makes it $25

Hijack is active, competent LAG, although his hand selection can be very speculative holdings, he makes up for it with positional aggression

Hero is button and elects to call $15 more with


:4s::5h::6s::9h:

SB and BB call, flop

:3h::6c::jh:

Checked to Hijack who fires $75, Hero calls, SB folds, BB shoves for $150, Hijack calls, Hero calls


Turn :9d:

Hijack bets $350, Hero calls

River :5c:

Hijack bets $1,100

Hero???

Scenario: HERO is considering a really thin hero-call on the river getting a not-so-good price.

You didn't say anything about Villain's frequency of c-betting, any bet-sizing reads, etc. so there's not a ton to go on here to be honest. You also didn't discuss any history between HERO and the Villain, either direct or indirect. It'd also be interesting to know what his body language was like, if you noticed anything (pauses, facial expressions, long looks at the board, etc.).

So here are a few generalizations:

Villain doesn't bet full pot on the flop. In my experience in PLO, this is someone who either wants action, or is putting out a c-bet with a strong yet vulnerable hand. You flat called - and BB check-raised the rest of his short-stack. Villain flats the other $75. I think this is an important detail as to strength of his hand. One would certainly expect a historically aggressive player would re-raise here. So I think you can rule out a set. IMO, A-J-x-x or an overpair with perhaps a strong heart draw are leading candidates. He may also have some type of strong combo draw with back-door flush or straight possibilities.

We also need to think about what your call of $75 twice says about your hand to him. You called pre, then called twice on this flop - essentially declining to raise despite two opportunities to do so. Depending on what villain has blocked, he probably has a pretty strong read on what you're holding.

On the turn he bets ~3/4 pot into an empty sidepot after a virtual blank hits the turn. Competent LAGs don't do this as a pure bluff, since they've nothing to gain from you folding other than closing out the action. I suspect villain holds a hand like 9-10-J-Q or A-J-10-9 and improved to top-2 pair. Again, he doesn't fear a set due to your passive play on the flop. He could also be building a side-pot for the nut-flush draw - but you'd think he'd have done that on the flop.

On the river, he probably doesn't fear the straight because he assumes:
  • You would have to have to have flopped a full wrap straight draw on this flop for that :5c: to have made your hand (unless he thinks you're calling $350 with just a gutshot on the turn);
  • Even if you flopped the wrap you might not draw to it with the hearts out there;
  • If you flopped the wrap/FD combo you'd probably have raised at some point.
His river bet of almost full pot is a little suspicious - but it really doesn't matter. The only thing you can beat is complete air - Could Villain have a hand like AKQ10 with a heart draw? He likely (correctly) assumes you have a flush draw - so maybe he bet big thinking you're not calling no matter what. Sure it's possible you're ahead but that's would require a very specific read to make this call here, and the pattern doesn't support it.

My biggest thing is Villain's turn bet. It's screams strength. If I'm in this spot, this hand hits the muck (preflop) :)
 
Welp, I'm an idiot. I shouldn't have been in there with the gap at the top of my hand, and I tried hero calling him with 2 pair and he not only had the JJ but he had the 87 also, lol

An expensive lesson, but one I won't forget

Was way outside my normal play style as well, typically I avoid hands with him when I can because he's very good, usually I'm a lot tighter, going to stick with that as I continue to learn
 
Welp, I'm an idiot. I shouldn't have been in there with the gap at the top of my hand, and I tried hero calling him with 2 pair and he not only had the JJ but he had the 87 also, lol

An expensive lesson, but one I won't forget

Was way outside my normal play style as well, typically I avoid hands with him when I can because he's very good, usually I'm a lot tighter, going to stick with that as I continue to learn

Having position on LAG player is ideal... but you need to play a fundamentally sound game. Surprised he had a set there... you'd think he'd play that more aggro on the flop.
 
As is often the case, when hero wants advice on the last bet or big bet he usually should be discussing the whole hand. More so when Hero is learning a new game

fold flop. This is marginally close if Hero is skilled vs the deep stacks. Holding the button is a big deal as is the $10 discount. But Hero’s hand is shabby, almost a three card hand. Special problem with short stacks in play. Hero should fear the price of draws will get excessive on the flop when the short stacks ‘go to war’ with big pairs or nut(ish) draws.

A cheap flop draw can be ok, but Hero should be looking for a reason to fold. Hero found that reason. Second pair / no kicker plus oesd, plus shabby flush draw is not a good hand. Worse deep stacked.

The turn is tricky. Middle two pair could be a winner. It could be a big trap. The main pot considerations differ from the side pot /deep stack considerations. Judgement, table feel and Villian reads are vital. I would recommend folding just as a function of inexperience. Hero likely has ~~ok equity but it is not clear where the equity is or how to realize it.

The River is trouble. Hero has a weak bluff catcher vs a pot sized bet. I am not recommending compounding all the earlier mistakes, especially the turn call. Yes the Villian might have outplayed Hero. Carefully observe the showdown and keep your $1,100 bucks.
 
Preflop hijack is trying to buy the button cheap. If hero wanted to get frisky, he could pot it assuming a decent chance villains would fold. Calling, hero knows that the blinds are never folding for $15 more, and a 4-way pot essentially makes hero’s hand 456 with no suits. Not great against the short stacks, but probably worth something deep in position against hijack.

On the flop hero has 6 outs to the nuts. Hero got to see a cheap flop, but didn’t connect quite well enough to call hijack’s 3/4 pot sized bet IMO. The sizing is a red flag, because either of the blinds shoving would reopen betting, and given their SPR this should happen quite often. Clearly hijack is not afraid to get it in vs. blinds here, so he is not holding air.

As played, I feel like the spot that confused hero was when hijack took a tricky line, hoping to induce a raise or further calls from hero. The hijack slowing down, just calling BB’s shove, only to continue betting the turn into an empty side pot, is a red flag.

On the turn hero has only 3 clean outs. Hijack is not winning the pot by making hero fold, so his bet is very likely for value.

On the river, again hijack is not winning the pot by making hero fold. Would he risk $1100 to win $700 from the side pot with air? Maybe, but probably not often enough for hero to make the call.
 
Just because HJ is a LAG doesn't mean you should flat his raises with just anything. This hand is very marginal, especially with the double gap at the top.

If he raises loosely preflop but plays smart post-flop, the antidote is reraising him preflop when you have position. His loose raises will quickly become a huge leak when he doesn't even get to see the flop (or has to pay a pot-sized 3-bet to see it).

The flop call was okay. Small bet, small pot, lots of action left. Worth peeling.

Should've folded the turn, though. You were likely way behind at that point, especially with the 9 de-nutting your straight draw (which was only an OESD anyway).

You might be ahead on this river, but I doubt this is the case often enough to call an $1,100 bet. A weak two pair hand is barely even a bluff-catcher in PLO, and other folks have well established why Villain's line is unlikely to be a bluff. Fold all day.
 
If Hero has only $200 to start the hand jamming would be an easy play. Get to realize all of you’re equity that is almost impossible deep stacked.

Hero may want to look to have a hit and run strategy while learning PLO. The game is much easier to play short stacked. Any big draw just jam it in.

But once the stacks get deep that strategy is much harder because a lot of your outs probably won’t be to the nuts and can cost you a lot of money to find that out.
 

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