2/5/10 PLO flop decision (1 Viewer)

Anthony Martino

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SB: $400 weak reg will bluff last to act if no one has shown interest, plays too many trash hands with danglers

BB: $750 new player to me, but seems fairly weak and prone to playing too many hands and overvaluing weaker holdings

Hero: $1,700 on button

$10 Rock is UTG+1 held by a player with $1,300 who seems tight/competent

Game has been fairly limpy with occassional preflop raises, but generally 5-way limps or better

Hero holds :4c::5d::7c::7d: and limps after a few limpers, both blinds come along and then the rock juices the pot with a $10 raise

We go 7-handed with $140 in the pot to this flop

:8d::6c::2s:

SB bets $140 pot, BB repots to $560

Folds to Hero, Hero?????
 
Playing 2/5/10, I think SB and BB are both short enough so that I’m willing to get it in, especially given your description of both of them as playing danglers/trash and overvaluing weak hands. I’d get it in on the flop.
 
Middle straights are trouble in PLO. And although you do have a wrap, it's the knucklehead end of the wrap -- only the 3 or 4 gives you the nut straight. The 5 or 7 leave better straights out there. And neither of your flush holdings came.

Even against two weaker players, I'm probably folding here. I'm guessing by the fact that you made a thread that you didn't fold, but I think I can sacrifice my $20 here against a pot and repot. I could be already behind and I can find better spots to get my money in.
 
This is a spot where I think hero isn't winning or losing a lot no matter what line he takes.
 
Middle straights are trouble in PLO. And although you do have a wrap, it's the knucklehead end of the wrap -- only the 3 or 4 gives you the nut straight. The 5 or 7 leave better straights out there. And neither of your flush holdings came.

Even against two weaker players, I'm probably folding here. I'm guessing by the fact that you made a thread that you didn't fold, but I think I can sacrifice my $20 here against a pot and repot. I could be already behind and I can find better spots to get my money in.

what he said. Easy fold imo
 
You don't play that many plo hands with danglers.
 
I like this hand a lot more if we are against 1 opponent. We could easily be against a set and a better straight draw. 7-9-10 has our straight draw crushed. Also we have one of our own outs already. I don’t like risking $750 in this spot. I fold.

@WedgeRock he may have folded and got to see the run out since the blinds still got it in. Guessing a river 4 for the nuts had Hero questioning his fold.
 
Hero repots figuring he has half the sevens in the deck. Figured SB is likely to take stabs like this at boards that don't have a lot of broadway cards or suits, so didn't think he was overly strong

The BB repotting is worrying, could be a set, but I was willing to gamble in this spot.

SB calls off with top and bottom pair, BB gets in with top two, so just about the best equity spot I could hope for since they block each other from filling up

Screenshot_20191018-084918_Chrome.jpg
 
Patience is your friend when posting strategy threads. The original post was 5 am central time, the final reveal is three hours later at 8 am. That is 3am - 6 am west coast time. It was all over before I got to my desk this morning.

As for the hand . . . .

I don't care for the preflop call. Hero's hand is dubious playing in a "short stack" environment. With a $10 effective biggest blind, most of the villains are playing less than 100 bb.

Hero smashes the flop just about as hard as he can. Even so, Hero has to hit a straight knowing a pair of sevens can't win unimproved. That is twelve outs, but only three outs to the nuts. There are going to be three players contesting for the pot(s) - a $1,200 main and a $500 side pot. On a lucky day Hero's draws will be clean facing an over played pocket aces, or two pairs or a set. On a bad day many of Hero's outs are chopping or losing to better straights.

I agree with the notion that it doesn't matter that much if Hero folds or jams. The expected value vs the ranges seems like +/- $100 or 10 biggest blinds. I say Hero should pick the option that offers the most fun / avoids the most pain. If he is playing to gamble and for the thrills that come with PLO then jam. If Hero would hate losing $750 more than the fun from rolling the dice then fold.

Hero should take note that if he folds here it means he shouldn't have wasted $20 preflop. This flop is about as good as it gets for Hero's hand is a short stack environment. If he isn't playing here then he shouldn't be playing dubious sorts of hands at all. (which is perfectly ok, not burning 2bb adds up quickly enough.)

DrStrange
 
Hero repots figuring he has half the sevens in the deck. Figured SB is likely to take stabs like this at boards that don't have a lot of broadway cards or suits, so didn't think he was overly strong

The BB repotting is worrying, could be a set, but I was willing to gamble in this spot.

SB calls off with top and bottom pair, BB gets in with top two, so just about the best equity spot I could hope for since they block each other from filling up

View attachment 354463

As Hero states this is THE BEST case he can be in and he is only a slight favorite against both players. If one of them has some kind of a straight draw Hero’s equity is reduced by a lot. While having the extra 7 seems like a blocker to other straight draws it is a card you want to come, not in your hand since you have to improve to win.

Also as more money gets into the pot it is more likely someone will have a hand with a 7 in it more times than not. If he Hero ran into 6789 he’d be in very bad shape.

If the players are as bad as Hero described and they seem to be, especially SB going crazy with top and bottom pair out of position, then Hero will find many much more profitable spots to get it in with.
 
Fwiw, I didn't expect SB to come along and most players generally will run it twice, which further increased my willingness to get it in here with two cards to come, anticipating going up against just one villain
 
Hero has 7 nut outs

Any 3 (four of them)
Any 4 (three of them)


Plus 9 other straight outs

Any 5 (three of them)
Any 7 (two of them)
Any 9 (four of them)

And if we hit a 7 we also have quad and full house redraws

If I was up against strong opponents in this spot I'd be more inclined to fold. But given the liklihood of my opponents having hand ranges significantly wider than nuts with nut redraws like 7889, I was willing to go with it

I also have two backdoor flush draws as well, which provide some value, especially since these spots are often run twice
 
The trouble with getting the money in the middle here based on having however many outs is that (a) so many of the outs are non-nut, (b) straights are too easily duplicated in Omaha, and (c) your opponents will almost always have live draws that beat a straight.

Even if all of your straight outs were live and unduplicated, you're facing pot-repot, and it's the full amount for you to call. It's even more than that, really, because the last of the BB's money is totally going in the middle if you continue. In the best-case scenario (pretty close to the one you happened to run into), this spot is probably marginally profitable. (Sorry, don't feel like doing all the math right now, and it doesn't matter anyway, as you'll see.)

The trouble comes when we consider the full range of the two players you're up against. If even one of them has some kind of straight draw, which is super-likely in Omaha, it not only means you're splitting the pot or even losing sometimes even when you hit, but it also eats up some of your outs. Your hand can become almost valueless against certain hands, never mind that you're up against two players, each of whom could be crippling your hand in a different way. Plus, any made hand that had any business getting it all-in on the flop probably has outs to a boat, and you won't always be so lucky to have them blocking each other.

Really, the only spot where you want to get your money in here is when you know with 100% certainty that your opponents have hands like they actually turned out to have. Set over set would be okay too, as long as there are no straight draws to go with either of them. Absent Postle-like instincts, you just can't deduce your opponents' cards so specifically in Omaha, especially not when they started with short stacks and got everything in the middle on the flop.

TLDR: Easy fold. Playing for stacks with draws like this is a recipe to get freerolled or quartered. You really shouldn't assume that your opponents will be at the bottom of their range when you happen to be involved in big pots with them. Even bad players get dealt good hands sometimes, and these opponents didn't even need to both have good hands to ruin your day.
 
I’m in agreement with @DrStrange on this one. You can choose to play solid/tight pf and fold these types of hands. If you see the flop, it’s hard to hit your hand much harder. Against weak/loose opponents I get it in every time in this spot.

I understand the point about non-nut outs, but with the villains starting the hand with 40 and 75 bbs, I think there’s enough value over villains’ ranges to get it in.

I also want to have a table image where I’ll get action on my monster hands. Hero showing this hand will help him get paid down the road.
 
I also want to have a table image where I’ll get action on my monster hands. Hero showing this hand will help him get paid down the road.

Calling here and being wrong will get hero more action down the road. Calling and being right may not... Hero must say, "fuck it, let's gamble" before making this call, or risk elevating his table image to that of a player to avoid.
 
Table image (being thought of as a nit) isn’t the action killer it is in Hold’em. Players only see what they have and can usually find a reason to continue.

My friend that I have been working with at PLO is a super nit and had concerns people would give him action. He has quickly realized that is not a problem.

Edit to fix typo
 
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Here's some alternative matchups (giving my opponents some stronger holdings) and their respective percentages. And yes, I know giving someone a crazy hand like KJ22 seems silly, but:

1. People do get silly hands in the blinds
2. A lady who called me an idiot when I had 7 scoop outs, she had 3 scoop outs and otherwise we tie (I got 3/4ths the pot running it twice) raised on the button with JJ33 single suited after 6 limpers, so there are plenty of people who just plain suck at this game

2.png


3.png


4.png



5.png
 
I'd push because I'm an idiot and not very good at PLO. But I could fold because I'm an idiot and not very good at PLO
 

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