$16 BI 10k guaranteed , what would you do in this spot ? (1 Viewer)

borisasaurus

borisasaurus

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You’re position 2/18 in a $16 BI 10k guaranteed. LJ jams 10 Bb, chip leader to his left comes over the top . Folds to hero in the BB with pocket queens …. What do you do?

Extra info: Next payout is $105 , big jumps start at FT, first place gets $3500 in compared to a 2nd place score of $2300. Average stack at 2 mil, hero at 4 mil, main villain at 5 mil. EDIT: I’m a dumbass. Blinds are 50k/100k , and this is an online tourney with 14 minute blind levels. Thanks to everyone who pointed out the info I missed!

 
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borisasaurus said:
You’re position 2/18 in a $16 BI 10k guaranteed. LJ jams 10 Bb, chip leader to his left comes over the top . Folds to hero in the BB with pocket queens …. What do you do?

Extra info: Next payout is $105 , big jumps start at FT, first place gets $3500 in compared to a 2nd place score of $2300. Average stack at 2 mil, hero at 4 mil, main villain at 5 mil.

Spoiler:
Click to expand...
Without any more info, I can find a fold. Whats are the blinds?
 
How many BBs does the hero have?
 
SORRY guys. Blinds are 50k/100k. That seems like important info, doesn’t it :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:? Yes I had a buttload of blinds and no need to flip, I committed ICM suicide. My reasoning was the the chip leader was a tricky LAG clearly applying ICM pressure, so therefore his shoving range would be wider than it should be. It was just a punt , though.

He ended up winning the tourney, he cemented an absolutely massive chip lead. I’m honestly happy I lost the flip and took a look at this spot. If I had won & shipped it would have just re-enforced my poor play.
 
I also tried to put a spoiler in the OP with what actually happened, but I’m not seeing it on my end. Not sure if it’s just an issue with the mobile site, but here it is:

I called, facing pocket 8s from the short stack and AKs from the main villain. After analyzing with ICMizer, I was supposed to fold everything besides KK and AA. I’m upset with myself because I doubt I’ll be in a spot like this in a 1200 entry MTT anytime soon and I really blew it. It’s not like the call is outrageous , I would have had first locked up and in this specific situation I was a slight favorite (results oriented lol), but man. Grinding 12 hours to make such a huge mistake at the most important time hurts. Next time, hopefully I won’t commit ICM suicide
 
borisasaurus said:
I also tried to put a spoiler in the OP with what actually happened, but I’m not seeing it on my end. Not sure if it’s just an issue with the mobile site, but here it is:

I called, facing pocket 8s from the short stack and AKs from the main villain. After analyzing with ICMizer, I was supposed to fold everything besides KK and AA. I’m upset with myself because I doubt I’ll be in a spot like this in a 1200 entry MTT anytime soon and I really blew it. It’s not like the call is outrageous , I would have had first locked up and in this specific situation I was a slight favorite (results oriented lol), but man. Grinding 12 hours to make such a huge mistake at the most important time hurts. Next time, hopefully I won’t commit ICM suicide
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When you said the chip leader came over the top of the jam, did they shove all-in?
 
borisasaurus said:
Yeah, so it looked quite polarizing to me. In this spot, I see him flatting AA & KK at some percentage.
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Yeah, exactly — they're probably not going to shove AA or KK in that spot.

If they're shoving there, my gut probably would have been saying AK — maybe even AQ but unlikely.

It's a really tough spot to be in, regardless; I'd find it tough folding Queens there, personally.

Don't beat yourself up about it or call it a huge mistake on your behalf, because it's definitely not! You win that race and you're in the driving seat to take down the tournie — and telling yourself that it was the right call.
 
borisasaurus said:
Yeah, so it looked quite polarizing to me. In this spot, I see him flatting AA & KK at some percentage.
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I thought the same thing, 100%. But what’s more important . . . well, you learned your lesson. Good attitude.
 
jr8719 said:
Don't beat yourself up about it or call it a huge mistake on your behalf, because it's definitely not!
Click to expand...
No, I think it definitely is. Why would you call off your #2 stack against the ONE guy who can take you out of the tournament?
I hope some other people chime in, because I’m always glad to hear thoughts and opinions. But I’m a tournament player and I think that was a pretty easy (though admittedly painful) fold.
 
upNdown said:
No, I think it definitely is. Why would you call off your #2 stack against the ONE guy who can take you out of the tournament?
I hope some other people chime in, because I’m always glad to hear thoughts and opinions. But I’m a tournament player and I think that was a pretty easy (though admittedly painful) fold.
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Appreciate your opinion, for sure.

Just out of interest, if you agreed with the OP that it's probably not AA or KK, are you thinking AK?
 
borisasaurus said:
Yeah, so it looked quite polarizing to me. In this spot, I see him flatting AA & KK at some percentage.
Click to expand...
You can’t bluff raise over the top of an all-in. It’s not polarized

The real question is does QQ have enough equity after adjusting ICM, and I dunno it’s probably really close. I might call. Seems like you ran the #s and ICMixer said no so there’s your answer but, IMO calling the best hand you should fold is never a “punt”
 
jr8719 said:
Appreciate your opinion, for sure.

Just out of interest, if you agreed with the OP that it's probably not AA or KK, are you thinking AK?
Click to expand...
Yup. I was thinking most likely AK, though it’s certainly possible it’s AJ or JJ. Of course AA and KK are possible. But to answer your question, yes I think we’re ahead here and I’m still folding. We just don’t need it here, in this spot.
 
upNdown said:
Yup. I was thinking most likely AK, though it’s certainly possible it’s AJ or JJ. Of course AA and KK are possible. But to answer your question, yes I think we’re ahead here and I’m still folding. We just don’t need it here, in this spot.
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I'm also thinking JJ here, and that's why I'd probably find it harder to fold — especially in a $16 tournament.
 
you had 40bb. 20bb is average. 50bb is chip leader. not very deep or that many bbs considering. Sounds like the tourney was getting ready for a shove fest. how long are the blind levels? What was the next few blind levels? Given it was a $16BI im guessing its leaning towards a turbo like structure. I probably have too much gamble in me so I probably would have made the call, especially if the next blind level was close and it jumped to 100k/200k.

#nogamblenofuture #playtowin #ifyourenotfirstyourelast :cool
 
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Really appreciate all the input here guys , this is absolutely amazing to have people to discuss this with. I don’t have any poker friends so I’m very grateful for you all.

davislane said:
you had 40bb. 20bb is average. 50bb is chip leader. not very deep or that many bbs considering. Sounds like the tourney was getting ready for a shove fest. how long are the blind levels? What was the next few blind levels? Given it was a $16BI im guessing its leaning towards a turbo like structure. I probably have too much gamble in me so I probably would have made the call, especially if the next blind level was close and it jumped to 100k/200k.

#nogamblenofuture #playtowin #ifyourenotfirstyourelast :cool
Click to expand...

With this in mind I may re run ICMizer tomorrow using AGS to take the blinds into account . It wasn’t actually a turbo structure though, 14 minute blind levels. The tourney was an absolute grind and I hate myself for getting impatient at the end. Just another lesson learned.

Frogzilla said:
You can’t bluff raise over the top of an all-in. It’s not polarized

The real question is does QQ have enough equity after adjusting ICM, and I dunno it’s probably really close. I might call. Seems like you ran the #s and ICMixer said no so there’s your answer but, IMO calling the best hand you should fold is never a “punt”
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I would agree that while it may not be a “punt” , it was a very large mistake in the most important stage of the tourney with large pay jumps. I walked away with $105 when I could have literally sat out and still probably locked up $1k. I was still steamed at myself earlier and calling it a punt was surely a bit harsh. Also, I used the wrong word when I said it looked polarized. I meant to say his range may be partially capped due to flatting AA and KK. Thanks for pointing that out
 
upNdown said:
But I’m a tournament player and I think that was a pretty easy (though admittedly painful) fold.
Click to expand...

I completely agree. I’m hoping next time it will be easy for me too. I have a long way to go as a player !
 
davislane said:
That is the definition of a turbo. It probably helps to let people know that this was online as that will change peoples thinking a little.
Click to expand...

My bad. I’ve never actually played live poker so I forget to specify…. Turbos on ACR are usually 5-8 minute blinds
 
40BB's here is really a bunch this late in the tournament. Still, you are ONLY worried about 3 hands....and you really are in pretty good shape against AK. A couple points:

-you are not going to fold to a win. If your goal is just to maximize your investment, you should fold down to like 10bb's or something, then start shoving. I don't know, I don't play that way because I have never played for life altering money.

-QQ vs. AK (I assume that's what villain had) is still a favorite. It's certainly not a punt.

-IF you win this hand, you are THE GUY to beat.

-Also remember that when you are contemplating a call like this, you are not trying to guess the player's EXACT hand. You want to think what are all the hands this player would do this play with, and how is your hand doing against all those hands combined? Against an OMC that hasnt shown down anything but premiums, you can contemplate a fold. Against a LAG pressuring people and playing 50% of hands....I think this is an easy call. If he shows up with ONE of the TWO hands you are in bad shape against, se la vie. Anything else, we are getting our money in good.

all in all, its a difficult call in my book.

Great spot to think about though.

Last note...here is what I would guess the V's range looks like assuming he was not open shoving constantly: AA-99, TJs+, A2s+, AT+. Put that in a solver and I think you will be happy with the results.
 
grebe said:
40BB's here is really a bunch this late in the tournament. Still, you are ONLY worried about 3 hands....and you really are in pretty good shape against AK. A couple points:

-you are not going to fold to a win. If your goal is just to maximize your investment, you should fold down to like 10bb's or something, then start shoving. I don't know, I don't play that way because I have never played for life altering money.

-QQ vs. AK (I assume that's what villain had) is still a favorite. It's certainly not a punt.

-IF you win this hand, you are THE GUY to beat.

-Also remember that when you are contemplating a call like this, you are not trying to guess the player's EXACT hand. You want to think what are all the hands this player would do this play with, and how is your hand doing against all those hands combined? Against an OMC that hasnt shown down anything but premiums, you can contemplate a fold. Against a LAG pressuring people and playing 50% of hands....I think this is an easy call. If he shows up with ONE of the TWO hands you are in bad shape against, se la vie. Anything else, we are getting our money in good.

all in all, its a difficult call in my book.

Great spot to think about though.

Last note...here is what I would guess the V's range looks like assuming he was not open shoving constantly: AA-99, TJs+, A2s+, AT+. Put that in a solver and I think you will be happy with the results.
Click to expand...

I tried to include a spoiler with what actually happened but I don’t think it worked, he did have AKs. As I mentioned before I would say AA & KK are not in his over jam range at 100% frequency (would expect to see some flats) so his range may be slightly capped. He was also applying ICM pressure most hands, not just opening premiums, so I expected his range to be a bit wider than it should be. All this factored into my call. As you said , not a “punt”, I was still steamed at myself and being too harsh at that point. I would have locked up the win if that flip went my way, but then I might have never even looked at this spot. ICMizer does put QQ as a fold with the pay structure for this specific tourney, but as someone else mentioned , calling with the best hand that you SHOULD fold doesn’t qualify as a “punt”.

The thing that really annoys me is I don’t know when I’ll be able to play an all day tourney like this again, and run good enough to get to the final 20 of a 1200 entry tourney. This is the first time I’ve been in a spot like that in my year and a half of playing online , I mostly play smaller field turbos as I don’t have that much time usually. So that’s sort of why I felt like I “punted” the opportunity
 
Does that icmizer that solved to KK/AA estimate how much equity is needed vs chip leader range (the heads up side pot equity) for +EV? Given dead money and how much of you are ahead of LJ range, normally no ICM you’d only need maybe 45%ish, what does it say is necessary?
 

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